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The Electric Car

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Re: The Electric Car

#311

Post by Symmetry »

patrickk wrote: post #280
harshaw wrote: post #165

I wish people would be slightly more honest about technological change. Smartphones are very special. They are very cheap, easy to mass produce, and you can iterate on them very quickly. Cars on the other hand have a much longer life cycle, involve much more capital, and in general are going to follow an elongated investment / replacement cycle. Comparing these two systems, while enthusiastic and great for a college…

I hope things pan out the way the article predicts and I'm a massive optimist for EV adoption in the long term. However, there's some obvious wrenches in the plan for such quick adoption, including: - No great options currently for charging in apartments. Virtually the entire world is on an urbanisation trend, so this segment of potential EV owners is really important for adoption, and isn't being currently served. -…

I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in their garages? I'm guessing that a metering or coin operated overnight charger wouldn't cost that much more than a normal charger. There's also the possibility of workplaces providing chargers. Mine does but we're sort of weird.

EDIT: Remember that a parking spot can easily cost over $10,000 so the extra money for a charger isn't that much.

http://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/HighCost.pdf

Re: The Electric Car

#312

Post by lectrick »

reedlaw wrote: post #156

I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats…

Spoken exactly like someone who has never driven a Tesla. ;)

> a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats 5 and can easily be driven across the country

How much did that Lexus cost new?

How much will a used Tesla go for in a few years?

> and can easily be driven across the country

Yes, NOW. But, you didn't read the article (or your reading comprehension sucks). If 10% of the cars on the road become electric, at least 10% of the gas stations will start to close (since that business is barely profitable), making it increasingly less convenient to own a gas car.

> A new electric car [1], on the other hand, costs approximately the same but can only seat 2 people and can travel 160 km on one charge.

Yeah, today. What about in 5-10 years?

You consistently use current state to argue against future state. There must be a fallacy named for this.

> It takes 6 hours to fully charge.

Tesla's tech is here now and takes far less time. He also released all his patents.

> The costly lithium-ion batteries will have to be replaced at some point.

Yes, in 10 years, when they will be far, far cheaper, due to manufacturing economies of scale. In that time they will lose only 10-15% of their total charging capacity.

> True, it is convenient for trips around town without much luggage.

Using electric motors over gas engines is a HUGE space savings. Again, see: Tesla. (You really need to see one of these up close and drive one. It may be the only thing that will "show you the light.")

> I'm fairly confident that the used Lexus will outlast and outrun the new electric car.

Nope, because the ICE (internal combustion engine) and transmission has hundreds or thousands more parts (any of which can break) than an electric transmission. The Tesla only has ONE GEAR, for example. Teslas, and other electrics with 3-phase AC induction motors, will last faaaaaaaaaaaaaaar longer than gas powered cars. I've seen 60 year old electric motors running like a top, and in googling the reliability of electric motors, they are far higher than gas motors. Coupled with the "tipping point" effect of many gas stations closing up due to lack of business, that cross-country trip will end up needing to be routed through available stations one day...

Did I mention that a Tesla, going the same distance as an ICE vehicle, has 1/3 the carbon footprint.

Source: I own a Tesla Model S P85+ and fully expect this thing to still be in tip top shape in 10 years while continuing to run circles around gas cars (ohhhh, I can't wait till you experience simply passing people by at speed in this thing... you think the thought and it's like you're a pinball coming off caroms to your destination...)

Re: The Electric Car

#314

Post by justinator »

Symmetry wrote: post #311
patrickk wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope things pan out the way the article predicts and I'm a massive optimist for EV adoption in the long term. However, there's some obvious wrenches in the plan for such quick adoption, including: - No great options currently for charging in apartments. Virtually the entire world is on an urbanisation trend, so this segment of potential EV owners is really important for adoption, and isn't being currently served. -…

I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in their garages? I'm guessing that a metering or coin operated overnight charger wouldn't cost that much more than a normal charger. There's also the possibility of workplaces providing chargers. Mine does but we're sort of weird. EDIT: Remember that a parking spot can easily cost over $10,000 so the extra money for a charger isn't that much.…

> I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in their garages?

I've lived in many apartments, but I've never lived in an apartment that included access to a garage. Many of the apartments I've lived in only had parking available on the street.

Re: The Electric Car

#315

Post by VLM »

JimboOmega wrote: post #93
greglindahl wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For refill time, note that most electric car owners do almost all of their charging in their own garages overnight... not something that's common for gas-powered cars. Long trips are worse for electric cars, sure. But day-to-day driving? Charging is not an issue if you can charge in your garage.

For those of us who live in apartment buildings and don't have a garage where we can install such things, then what? To me this has always been the biggest obstacle of an electric car.

"don't have a garage where we can install such things"

Why? In the frozen north its, maybe not customary, but not overly unusual, to have parking spots wired for engine block and battery heaters. Theres a whole cultural thing of not blocking other peoples access, a legal framework of not blocking sidewalks, when its OK to share, or not share, someones extension cord, stuff like that. Its just not a serious issue. The cost of one parking spot was rolled into my bachelor pad, but when space was available I could get another spot for $25/mo or whatever it was, surely a charger spot would have some minor additional costs, but chargers are pretty cheap compared to land and pavement and buildings.

I guess the only technological limitation I can think of is service drop size, if you wire up 200 parking stalls at 25 KW each you're probably going to have to upgrade the service drop or implement something "interesting" involving partial charge rates. Presumably someone will start shipping an apartment charger that can bluetooth pair with its neighboring chargers and cooperate such that the total average draw of the entire lot never exceeds 100 KW or something like that. 100 KW is a drop in the bucket for an apartment building, thats like 1000 watts worth of TVs or lights in each of 100 apartments. Dinner time on a hot summer night is a large multiple of that draw.

House service drops used to be just 60 amps a few decades ago and now 200 is pretty standard... if you think service drop upgrades for a house are expensive, imagine the cost of an entire apartment building upgrade LOL. Of course this may be a short term thing... solar panels may mean apartments will be net producers while the sun is up, soon enough.

Re: The Electric Car

#316

Post by Atiim »

nnethercote wrote: post #195
harshaw wrote: post #165

I wish people would be slightly more honest about technological change. Smartphones are very special. They are very cheap, easy to mass produce, and you can iterate on them very quickly. Cars on the other hand have a much longer life cycle, involve much more capital, and in general are going to follow an elongated investment / replacement cycle. Comparing these two systems, while enthusiastic and great for a college…

Indeed, the fact that phone contracts effectively force most people to upgrade every two years is an unusual, important, and often-overlooked characteristic of the smartphone market. It's a big part of why Apple makes such incredible amounts of money from iPhones, but their iPad revenue has dropped off significant.

It's all about life cycle. A typical car lives for nearly 15 years. There are huge numbers of 15-20 year-old cars on the road today. An introduction of a new type of car won't change the life cycle dynamics. Even if auto manufacturers manage to sell 50% of new electric cars in 10 years, there will be tens of millions of old gasoline cars on the road ... just because people keep driving them.

Re: The Electric Car

#317

Post by mavhc »

CountSessine wrote: post #103
roel_v wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That other company of which there was an article here a few months ago drove a car autonomously from LA to NYC. Volvo drives cars around Stockholm. BMW has self driving cars on the road. There are self driving trucks right now at work on oil fields in Alaska and in mines in Australia. It's true that we're not really there yet. And yes there are hurdles like regulation, what about heavy rain etc. But the pace at which…

No carmaker has a city-driving autonomous vehicle that doesn't require super-precise, cm-scale, unrealistically always-up-to-date maps for the AI. The autonomous super-size dump trucks drive along carefully pre-programmed routes using GPS. We're still a long ways away from practical and safe self-driving cars. AI and computer vision just isn't there yet.

I assume each car will record its data and upload it. Handily google fiber has lots of upload capacity. Google will then aggregate changes in the maps.

Re: The Electric Car

#318

Post by ph0rque »

For gas stations, the profit from gas is ~1%, but the profit from snacks etc. is much higher. So gas stations could easily add electric charging stations and continue making profit. Source: worked at Sheetz during high school and college, sat through their corporate presentations from time to time.

Now, it is true that the electric charging stations have to compete with an additional category: people charging at home, so there will be gas station closings. The first franchise to add electric chargers should still be profitable, though.

Re: The Electric Car

#319

Post by lectrick »

GutenYe wrote: post #174
reedlaw wrote: post #156

I can't believe he's comparing a $70,000 electric car to a huge bucket labeled "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Of course the $70,000 car is better in almost every way. I've driven a lot of electric cars in the $5,000 to $10,000 range and I assure you they are not better than "old-fashioned gasoline cars". Our last gas-powered car was a used Lexus that cost us $8,000. It's an extremely comfortable luxury car that seats…

Just one more thing, he forgot to mention that we still need to wait for Tesla Model 3.

Not necessarily. Used Tesla Model S's will come down in price, and still have fairly extreme (in my estimation) reliability (which may actually work to keep the price from coming down as much as an ICE vehicle, but still...)

Re: The Electric Car

#320

Post by Symmetry »

justinator wrote: post #314
Symmetry wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in their garages? I'm guessing that a metering or coin operated overnight charger wouldn't cost that much more than a normal charger. There's also the possibility of workplaces providing chargers. Mine does but we're sort of weird. EDIT: Remember that a parking spot can easily cost over $10,000 so the extra money for a charger isn't that much.…

> I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in their garages? I've lived in many apartments, but I've never lived in an apartment that included access to a garage. Many of the apartments I've lived in only had parking available on the street.

I guess it's a matter of density? If you've only got two or three apartments in a building street parking works but for more than that it's really not feasible. If you like living in less dense areas that's great but my sense is that most of the urbanization that's happening is at densities where street parking isn't feasible.
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