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The Really Big One

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Re: The Really Big One

#251

Post by mjklin »

hrktb wrote: post #189
nordsieck wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of people predict lots of catastrophes. The trick is identifying the correct ones ahead of time. This is much more difficult than you are implying.

I think it's still very simple. We can view it through the concept of discount rate [0], basically people don't value a future event as much as a present one. The world ending in 50 years is not worth making drastic efforts now, at least for most people. If your prediction is too costly on the short term, as accurate as it can be most people won't act on it. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intertemporal_choice

There is also something called the "critic's lament" that goes like this:

If you describe a situation in too dire terms, people will conclude nothing can be done about it and do nothing. On the other hand, if you describe a situation in too rosy terms, people will conclude it will work itself out... and do nothing.

Re: The Really Big One

#252

Post by iSnow »

mokus wrote: post #105
rudolf0 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like one could accidentally trigger the full quake by doing this, though I'm no seismologist.

Even if that was a possible outcome, it seems like the advantage of having it at a time of your choosing would be significant.

The legal liability would be significant too, I guess.

Re: The Really Big One

#254

Post by chiph »

lsllc wrote: post #218
chiph wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ready.gov has some basic steps. But, they don't have enough emphasis on having clean water, IMO. Having a storage sharing agreement with friends within a day or two's walk could be useful, so if your home is destroyed (along with your emergency supplies) your friend's might still be in good shape. And vice-versa.

Sadly, being well prepared with clean water, food, medicine and shelter does you no good if someone else takes it from you. The very first item on your list should be a powerful firearm & sufficient ammo. Lucifer's Hammer by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle has a pretty good take on the post-apocalyptic chaos & breakdown in society that will likely ensue.

Agreed. But ... California makes that tough. Oregon & Washington are more in line with the rest of the country. Something to check is whether your state restricts carrying when a state of emergency has been declared.

Re: The Really Big One

#255

Post by TheLoneWolfling »

ido wrote: post #246
ryanmarsh wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically enough, the architecture of the French Quarter in New Orleans is exactly an example of this. The way it was explained to me the French used wood until a mayor or some such proclaimed that all new buildings would use stone because the Spanish inspired buildings were the only ones left standing each time the city burned down.

Can we build relatively fire-resistant wooden buildings today, using modern technology?

We can build relatively fire-resistant buildings.

As for relatively fire-resistant wooden buildings? I suspect that it's easier to "just" use less wood.

Although note that there are a couple of things that do help. A steel roof as opposed to a shingled one. Having proper screens in the roof vents. Having fire-resistant siding. Tile floors (or something else that's non-flammable) as opposed to carpet or wooden ones. Not having gas lines to be ruptured by an earthquake. Having proper (read: not likely to catch something on fire in the case of an earthquake) electrical connections.

Re: The Really Big One

#256

Post by kelnos »

Locke1689 wrote: post #20

Hmm, in the spirit of thinking of worst-case scenarios, most of the engineering talent for Amazon and Microsoft is in Seattle and Redmond, respectively. There's even a sizable percentage of Google cloud platform in Fremont and Kirkland. Even if most of the employees live, it's likely basic infrastructure will be a disaster for quite a while. Maybe Google would be able to offload ops work to Mountain View, but it seem…

Sure, the AWS us-west datacenters would go down (Oregon and NorCal), but us-east (VA) is still the largest of all AWS regions. While Amazon is headquartered on the west coast, I sincerely doubt a failure of even both us-west regions would take out the others.

Ultimately it's up to the user: if they're going to put all their eggs in a us-west basket, they're out of luck if the west coast ends up under water.

Re: The Really Big One

#257

Post by VikingCoder »

mirimir wrote: post #191
freehunter wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you get the helium needed to make it fly through the air? If you're just pumping air, at best you would float on water, which still leaves you vulnerable to being killed by something else that is floating (possibly a pickup truck, a growler of Rogue Dead Guy Ale or maybe the Space Needle).

You'd get helium from a tank. But you'd need a regulator with a huge heat exchanger to get fast inflation. Maybe use a high-volume whitewater kayak as the "basket".

Hmmm - how fast is fast?

Do you know how to actually do this math?

Like, to lift a 200 lb person, without a heat exchanger (or a more reasonably sized one)?

How long would it take?

Re: The Really Big One

#258

Post by emodendroket »

jsprogrammer wrote: post #67
jasonshen wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more cynical/realistic problem is "dealing with the aftermath of the collapse", and the fund helps keep some of the costs from overrunning.

You could do the same after the fact.

It's a harder sell politically to cap compensation to what's in the fund after the fact.

Re: The Really Big One

#259

Post by ryanSrich »

kenferry wrote: post #247

It would be nice if they'd cite their sources. This looks to be one of the main ones: http://www.crew.org/sites/default/files/cascadia_subduction_... But this is not nearly as dire. For example, "the Pacific Northwest’s largest population centers and ports, including Portland (OR), Seattle and Tacoma (WA), and Vancouver (BC), are not expected to experience any significant tsunami impacts."

I can't speak for any other cities but I do know that Portland is much too far in land to be hit by a tsunami. The destruction within Portland would come from the earthquake itself.

Also, here are some sources that seem to coincide with what the author wrote.

- http://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/osspac/docs/Oregon_Resilience_...

- http://i.imgur.com/MX7okVp.png

- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone

Re: The Really Big One

#260

Post by parasubvert »

lexcorvus wrote: post #199
hrktb wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's still very simple. We can view it through the concept of discount rate [0], basically people don't value a future event as much as a present one. The world ending in 50 years is not worth making drastic efforts now, at least for most people. If your prediction is too costly on the short term, as accurate as it can be most people won't act on it. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intertemporal_choice

I suspect this is in part a side-effect of the Anglo-American (maturity-mismatched) banking system, which keeps long-term interest rates artificially low, leading to higher time preference.

Since interest rates are a man-made concept, one must wonder what a "natural" rate of interest actually is.

Words like "Artificial vs. natural" attempt to ascribe illegitimacy to what is mostly a policy difference.

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