The Really Big One • Hacker News Board

Re: The Really Big One

#161

Post by Flammy » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:07 PM UTC

rconti wrote: post #82

someear wrote: post #56

I like to think about how I'd react in the 15 minutes I have between the earthquake and tsunami. How tall would this tsunami be? Quick googling shows the tallest one ever is 524 meters. Assuming the tsunami is that tall, going into tall buildings might not work - tallest building in Seattle, Columbia Tower, is 287 meters (+50m in elevation increase), and is a few blocks from the waterfront . Best bet is to run/bike u…

If you DID go up into a tall building, what's your plan? Jump into the water just as the building's collapsing?

Remember any tsunami is going to be 20 min to an hour after the earthquake. If the building is still standing when the water arrives, it probably isn't coming down.

Re: The Really Big One

#162

Post by myth_buster » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:07 PM UTC

zecho wrote: post #127

qq66 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Downtime of major internet services could also cause deaths elsewhere, as more industries become reliant on cloud services. I could imagine hospitals losing access to health records, emergency responders losing access to mapping or route planning software, people losing access to Uber and not being able to get to the hospital because the taxi companies have gone out of business. Of course all this stuff is supposed t…

Man. In times like these—the northwest falling into the ocean or whatever—it's unimaginable to think about the sheer amount of data loss that could occur. I'd probably be really worried about that loss of data or, worse, the loss of services if millions of people suddenly died.

Isn't it the case that there is replication across data centers which are geologically spread apart?

Re: The Really Big One

#163

Post by deegles » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:21 PM UTC

myth_buster wrote: post #162

zecho wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Man. In times like these—the northwest falling into the ocean or whatever—it's unimaginable to think about the sheer amount of data loss that could occur. I'd probably be really worried about that loss of data or, worse, the loss of services if millions of people suddenly died.

Isn't it the case that there is replication across data centers which are geologically spread apart?

Only if you had the foresight to set that up.

Re: The Really Big One

#164

Post by munificent » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:25 PM UTC

codingdave wrote: post #118

fizixer wrote: post #87

In recent past, I had this thought that Silicon Valley is sitting on top of, or very close to, potential future fault activity. And I have a hard time believing that the key component of human civilization (technology) is so vulnerable, and was built after the 1906 disaster. It's one of the factors I would consider when deciding if I really want to move to west coast.

You think technology is the key component to human civilization? I would have thought of food.

Food is a technology. Horticulture, breeding, domestication, threshing, plowing, sowing, crop rotation, cooking, drying, pickling, brining, canning, curing, refrigerating, etc.

Modern civilization is massively more efficient at extracting food from a given piece of arable land than our hunter gatherer forebears were able too, all thanks to thousands of years of food technology.

Re: The Really Big One

#165

Post by azoth_ » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:27 PM UTC

VikingCoder wrote: post #88

After watching the Japanese Tsunami, it got me wondering about a weather-balloon-like device. You strap it on like a life jacket, and you wait for the wave to come your way. As it approaches, you pull the cord. Something that looks like a weather balloon inflates, extends the length of a tether, and then you float a few hundred feet in the air, and then float back down a while later. Why is this a dumb idea?

There is a company that already makes a Tsunami survival capsule, though it is only designed to float on water:

http://survival-capsule.com/

Re: The Really Big One

#166

Post by dnautics » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:33 PM UTC

callmeed wrote: post #151

michaelvkpdx wrote: post #80

Silicon Valley refugees and people complaining about Bay Area prices, please note that this is 100% true. Portland will be completely wiped out within the next couple years by a giant earthquake followed by a Sasquatch Apocalypse. Don't move here. You will die. But please visit and enjoy your stay! Love, Portland

Also, please don't move to San Luis Obispo / Avila Beach. We have a nuclear power plant on a bluff near a fault line. Come visit though. We have great tri-tip and outdoor activities.

not only that, it's called "diabolo canyon". I mean talk about tempting fate.

Re: The Really Big One

#167

Post by rfugger » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:38 PM UTC

I was in New Orleans in October 2002, and this guy was on the front page of the main newspaper predicting that within 20 years a category 5 hurricane was likely to whip around Florida and strike the city head on. He said the levies weren't high or strong enough, and that downtown New Orleans would be under 20 feet of water:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/predicting-katrina.html

I remember reading it with interest and then shrugging and moving on with my day. Three years later I remembered that moment and realized that as a society we just don't care that much about our long-term safety.

Re: The Really Big One

#168

Post by pnathan » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:42 PM UTC

nkrumm wrote: post #94

olefoo wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large parts of downtown and the area between Queen Anne and Capitol Hill ( where the Amazon campus is ) are built on fill, and are likely to be subjected to liquefaction in a major seismic event. It's entirely possible that whole sections of Capitol Hill could slide into downtown too. The hills shake and the mountains dance, and then comes the tsunami; this sounds much more exciting to read about than live through.

Here's a map of liquefaction risk in King county: http://your.kingcounty.gov/dnrp/library/water-and-land/flood...

Thanks! I was going to be googling for that shortly. :-)

Re: The Really Big One

#169

Post by sneak » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:45 PM UTC

alxv wrote: post #49

Locke1689 wrote: post #20

Hmm, in the spirit of thinking of worst-case scenarios, most of the engineering talent for Amazon and Microsoft is in Seattle and Redmond, respectively. There's even a sizable percentage of Google cloud platform in Fremont and Kirkland. Even if most of the employees live, it's likely basic infrastructure will be a disaster for quite a while. Maybe Google would be able to offload ops work to Mountain View, but it seem…

Google runs a company-wide disaster recovery testing event every year. Earthquakes are among the numerous scenarios simulated. https://queue.acm.org/detail.cfm?id=2371516

Great link. Reminds me of this:

http://craphound.com/overclocked/Cory_Doctorow_-_Overclocked...

Re: The Really Big One

#170

Post by miles932 » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 10:45 PM UTC

Locke1689 wrote: post #140

nostrademons wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DiRT drills include the simultaneous loss of whole offices, including the complete obliteration of the Bay Area. Participants are instructed to pretend that they've been eaten by zombies and not communicate with anyone in a remote office, and that's backed up (as described in the article) by cutting the network links to & from the Mountain View corporate office. Now, there may certainly be larger systemic effects…

Maybe Google is distributed enough to stay up, but I'm pretty sure Microsoft and Amazon are not, and I doubt Google has the spare capacity to handle Azure load, much less Amazon load.

Try us :)