The Really Big One • Hacker News Board

Re: The Really Big One

#61

Post by sharkweek » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:10 PM UTC

civilian wrote: post #46

jsprogrammer wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A MBA in my python night class said that one approach to the viaduct problem would be to: fund a "victims of the viaduct" fund, today, with a couple million. And then pass a law that the compensation for families of the victims is limited to what's in the fund. What exactly is the "viaduct problem"?

It's going to collapse in the next big earthquake. //edit: and here's a simulation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hos_uIKwC-c

Well there goes my favorite hotdog stand...

Re: The Really Big One

#62

Post by idlewords » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:11 PM UTC

astrodust wrote: post #26

Worth noting that the state of warning systems there is somewhere between dismal and non-existent and the disaster preparedness of most cities seems to vary between unprepared and comically inept. Is there anything anyone can do to set up an alert for these sorts of things? If these predictions are true, there's a good chance that the entirety of Silicon Valley could be utterly destroyed. You'd think people would tak…

It's pretty baffling. Japan is the model for earthquake warning systems. Even a few seconds' warning could be invaluable if you are running a major datacenter. But apart from a tiny pilot program in Berkeley I'm not aware of any serious efforts in that direction.

Re: The Really Big One

#63

Post by idlewords » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:14 PM UTC

sasvari wrote: post #47

interurban wrote: post #28

For a good read on another somewhat overlooked seismic zone: http://idlewords.com/2015/07/confronting_new_madrid.htm Most people don't think of the midwest/great plains states as being seismically active, but they're home to some of the most geologically interesting history in the United States.

surfaced here just 3 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9862451

Consider this an aftershock

Re: The Really Big One

#64

Post by rudolf0 » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:15 PM UTC

kenferry wrote: post #35

Is there any work on inducing earthquakes to relieve stress before it builds to catastrophe levels?

I feel like one could accidentally trigger the full quake by doing this, though I'm no seismologist.

Re: The Really Big One

#65

Post by torinmr » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:17 PM UTC

Locke1689 wrote: post #41

serve_yay wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That does seem likely, though as far as I know, AWS's biggest zone is located in Northern Virginia. And, I'm sure the AWS people have planned as much as they can for this eventuality. (Um, I hope.)

I doubt the datacenter's locations matter. The services at the bottom of the stack need constant ops to stay alive. With most of the engineers out, I expect barely a few days to go by before one of the essential services needs servicing.

For companies that size, the really important services probably have a distributed ops team, with a team in Europe/Asia alternating 12 hour oncall shifts with a team in North America. In an emergency, the non-North American team could take 24 hour shifts to keep the infrastructure alive.

Though of course if headquarters was really wiped off the map, there'd be huge problems with communication, tribal knowledge that only existed in the heads of senior engineers in Seattle, and so forth.

Re: The Really Big One

#66

Post by chrisfosterelli » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:17 PM UTC

soperj wrote: post #54

jameshart wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are contrasting what they describe as weekly small quakes in Japan with long periods of inactivity in the Pacific Northwest. A significant quake in one city in the region 14 years ago doesn't invalidate the claim that you could spend a significant time in the northwest without feeling a tremor.

It's certainly not the only earthquake I've felt in the 15 years that I've lived here, just the biggest. Which is definitely different from not feeling a quiver in many lifetimes.

I live north east of Vancouver and have lived my whole life without even a shake. Most of my friends (from all over) have never felt one either. He didn't say "everywhere", just "many places".

Re: The Really Big One

#67

Post by jsprogrammer » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:17 PM UTC

jasonshen wrote: post #60

jsprogrammer wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what I assumed, but I didn't (and still don't) see how setting up a limited liability fund for future victims would prevent what is shown in that simulation.

The more cynical/realistic problem is "dealing with the aftermath of the collapse", and the fund helps keep some of the costs from overrunning.

You could do the same after the fact.

Re: The Really Big One

#68

Post by chiph » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:18 PM UTC

cdsingh1001 wrote: post #52

the question I would be asking myself is Am I prepared for such a natural disaster ? Or What steps can I take on a personal level to be ready ? For eg: Always have an evac bag ready to take off Or live out of a suitcase so that I dont have to worry about stuff & data. Or distribute my personal resources (cards, cash) etc in PO boxes across the country. Ofcourse, in such a huge disaster these steps wont matter but in…

ready.gov has some basic steps. But, they don't have enough emphasis on having clean water, IMO. Having a storage sharing agreement with friends within a day or two's walk could be useful, so if your home is destroyed (along with your emergency supplies) your friend's might still be in good shape. And vice-versa.

Re: The Really Big One

#69

Post by falcolas » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:19 PM UTC

someear wrote: post #56

I like to think about how I'd react in the 15 minutes I have between the earthquake and tsunami. How tall would this tsunami be? Quick googling shows the tallest one ever is 524 meters. Assuming the tsunami is that tall, going into tall buildings might not work - tallest building in Seattle, Columbia Tower, is 287 meters (+50m in elevation increase), and is a few blocks from the waterfront . Best bet is to run/bike u…

Don't forget the elevation change from the subducted plate falling back down. Personally, I'd look for a motorcycle and head for the hills.

Re: The Really Big One

#70

Post by chrisfosterelli » Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 7:21 PM UTC

someear wrote: post #56

I like to think about how I'd react in the 15 minutes I have between the earthquake and tsunami. How tall would this tsunami be? Quick googling shows the tallest one ever is 524 meters. Assuming the tsunami is that tall, going into tall buildings might not work - tallest building in Seattle, Columbia Tower, is 287 meters (+50m in elevation increase), and is a few blocks from the waterfront . Best bet is to run/bike u…

I wish I could find some definitive resources on whether or not a building would be considered safe in a tsunami, and if it would be better to go for higher floors or lower floors.

I imagine that after such a large earth quake, many buildings would be unstable and potentially open to collapse from the force of a tsunami. I'm sure going to higher ground would be a better idea if possible, but say if it was iffy to get there in 10 minutes, should I spend that time looking for a high building instead or just get as far inland as possible?