Earlier quoted context omitted.
jQuery CDN cache hit rate is 99.8%[0], Google CDN numbers should be comparable. So yes, you are leveraging browser cache for most popular libraries. Also I was talking from the subsequent requests from the same client. [0] https://www.maxcdn.com/blog/maxscale-jquery/
You are confusing browser cache hits with a CDN/edge server cache hit.jQuery, or MaxCDN for that matter has no idea what the "hit rate" of a browser cache is. This sentence should be a big clue: "We usually average around 15,000 hits per second to our CDN with 99.8% of those being cache hits." "We" in that sentence is Kris Borchers speaking collectively about the jQuery foundation, talking a MaxCDN interviewer. But h…
"Our CDN is a huge part of the jQuery ecosystem. We usually average around 15,000 hits per second to our CDN with 99.8% of those being cache hits. This provides much better performance for those using our CDN as their visitors can use a cached copy of jQuery and not have to download it, thus decreasing load time."
Somehow because of that I assumed that they had analysis done to understand browser caching rates. My bad.
EDIT: Huh, funny thing. What exactly is the origin server for the CDN jQuery library when the request URI is https://code.jquery.com/jquery-2.1.4.min.js ?
What would be the point for going to origin server at all if versioned jquery libraries are static and do not change? Edge locations are for all intents and purposes an origin server. I think that the sibling comment may be more accurate in its assumption: 99.8% cache hit most probably are 200 vs 304 responses.
END OF EDIT
Nevertheless, I've spent more time to research the issue of random person loading a javascript library from browser cache.
Usage on top10k websites: Google JS CDN is used on 23.5% [1] jQuery DNS is used on 4% [4] CDNJS is used on 4% [2] jsDelivr is used on 0.5% [3] OSSCdn is used on 2% [5]
Supposedly set of websites that use a particular JS CDN belong are disjoint with a set of websites using a competitive CDN. Thus we can estimate total JS CDN use at 30% of top10k websites and literally millions of websites scattered around the internet.
As JS libraries popularity follows a power law distribution and libraries cache headers are set for a year and longer, I would suggest that the probability of top 100 JS libraries being already cached in a browser is really high.
Statistical data hints that JS cdns are in fact quite efficient at reaching their goals, but certainly doesn't prove anything conclusively.
[0]https://www.maxcdn.com/blog/maxscale-jquery/
[1]https://trends.builtwith.com/cdn/AJAX-Libraries-API
[2]https://trends.builtwith.com/cdn/CDN-JS
[3]https://trends.builtwith.com/cdn/jsDelivr