Live data from Hacker News

Why is finance so complex? (2011)

interfluidity.com

71–80 of 148 posts

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You need a mortgage because you don't have $400,000 in cash sitting around. And a large part of why housing costs $400,000 in the first place is due to the availability of mortgages. Mortgages gave themselves a reason to exist.

Not really. Land, Materials, and a team of carpenters/electricians/roofers/hvac/painters for 3-6 months ends up at around 400k. It's not really that crazy. If you paid them all programmer salaries, you'd never get a house for under 1mm.

You can definitely build a whole house from scratch for less than 400k. You can build it for less than $100k - http://www.zillow.com/oh/home-values/

No, most of the value in a home comes from the land underneath it. The point being made above is that the availability of credit leads to asset inflation, as more people are able to compete for the same scarce things (desirable living locations).

Mind you, credit does have a purpose - if your income and your house's value appreciate faster than the interest rate being charged to you, then you were able to gather the resources for it.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#72

The world of finance makes these aspects of your life function: * Allows you to get a mortgage * Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance * Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works * Protects your deposits * Pays for your retirement * Funds the college fund that paid for your school * ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school * Supports the gl…

>Financial innovation make our lives more predictable and less sensitive to chance.

lol.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#73
"The core purpose of status quo finance is to coax people into accepting risks that they would not, if fully informed, consent to bear."

This. If you have money, and let it be known that you have money, you will be offered a large number of stupid deals. There is a huge range of financial products out there which underperform the market. Amazingly, people buy them. Wealthy people.

The deals offered poor people, such as payday loans, and crap auto loans, suck even worse. Most Americans were better off when we had regulated savings and loans, tightly regulated banks, and a much narrower range of financial products.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#74
post #22

The world of finance makes these aspects of your life function: * Allows you to get a mortgage * Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance * Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works * Protects your deposits * Pays for your retirement * Funds the college fund that paid for your school * ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school * Supports the gl…

*If you life in a first world country and come from at least a lower-middle class background You are talking about money. Not modern wall-street finance. > huge amount of human progress is owed to modern-day financial institutions. Like synthetic credit default swaps? > Like a software system, it's extremely naive to think that complexity is a sign that a system is rotten. Complexity that can't be coped with is rotte…

> Like synthetic credit default swaps? You mean a synthetic CDO? CDS don't need to be synthetic.

>Tell that to Greece people that got into the Euro because of clever CDS from Goldman Sachs The people of Greece (and their political leaders) wanted to get into the Euro. They spun their own fiction.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we live in a democracy, and money is backed by the state, why do we have to pay interest to profit-making banks and insurance companies? Giving out mortgages is not difficult. You just have to be a bank. Not only that but 2007 showed that profit-making banks are even worse than a reasonable person, or precocious five year old, would be at deciding who should be given a mortgage. Mortgages are a necessary part of s…

So you want to collect enough taxes to have the government provide zero interest mortgages. Does that mean everyone gets a mortgage, regardless of creditworthiness? You want me to pay for other people's mortgages, when they won't even give me one?

The parent never mentioned zero interest, why not have a interest just because the loan is granted by the government? Just call it a tax instead of interest.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#76
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Land, Materials, and a team of carpenters/electricians/roofers/hvac/painters for 3-6 months ends up at around 400k. It's not really that crazy. If you paid them all programmer salaries, you'd never get a house for under 1mm.

You can definitely build a whole house from scratch for less than 400k. You can build it for less than $100k - http://www.zillow.com/oh/home-values/ No, most of the value in a home comes from the land underneath it. The point being made above is that the availability of credit leads to asset inflation, as more people are able to compete for the same scarce things (desirable living locations). Mind you, credit does ha…

Haha. You should become a developer. You would be rich in weeks.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#77
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like a software system, it's extremely naive to think that complexity is a sign that a system is rotten. The reality is, the derivatives market is larger than the actual market. More capital is invested in calls guessing if Google is going up than is actually invested in Google. This is a sign something is rotten. This article from 2008 has a lot of interesting data from after the subprime crash ( http://monthlyrev…

The nominal value of the notes in the derivatives market is extremely large. However, we can't equate $500B notional of e.g. CDS written against Apple debt with $500B of Google stock. The CDS represents (1) to the seller, an small initial premium and a large, extremely low-probability liability requiring some collateral, and (2) a stream of future payments from or to the buyer, depending on the cost of insuring the d…

> and a large, extremely low-probability liability requiring some collateral

Having read up on the topic, the problem appears to be that this probability cannot be accurately determined, due to useless models being used (e.g. Normal distribution to model complex phenomena).

So the probability is often not so low as the financial experts think. Besides that, it does happen that the liability becomes due, as in the 2007/2008 GFC. People were shocked because their models indicated that such an event should practically never happen (due to it being of such low probability).

When the liability is due, the whole system collapses (as it did in 2007/2008) because the collateral that is held is often not worth what it's is marked up to be.

So the whole system is fragile and prone to systematic collapse. Sounds pretty rotten to me.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#78
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can definitely build a whole house from scratch for less than 400k. You can build it for less than $100k - http://www.zillow.com/oh/home-values/ No, most of the value in a home comes from the land underneath it. The point being made above is that the availability of credit leads to asset inflation, as more people are able to compete for the same scarce things (desirable living locations). Mind you, credit does ha…

Haha. You should become a developer. You would be rich in weeks.

I have a house in the UK which has a rebuild cost of £27k. The house is valued at approx £120k, but it's the cost of the land that makes up the rest.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Complexity that can't be coped with is rotten!" I respectfully disagree. https://en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/I,_Pencil

Isn't that an example of complexity that is being successfully coped with, thanks to the abstractions provided by the various industries and institutions that provide raw materials, processing, shipping, etc?

I guess I'm not clear as to what "can't be coped with" means precisely.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#80
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, there could be some counterarguments. > Allows you to get a mortgage Wonder if that was always so? Didn't people manage somehow to have a house without something which name suggests it will be paid for the whole life? > Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance A casino, right? On average you lose, but for a price you buy a hedge against unforeseen? At least unforeseen for you…

You seem to be confusing finance with retail banking. >Didn't people manage somehow to have a house without something which name suggests it will be paid for the whole life? Well, for a while people were indentured farmers, then you got people renting tenements and apartments in cities, with some land-grant family farms/homsteads being passed down through inheritance. Mass suburban home ownership is mostly a post-WWI…

I thank you - and all other who replied - deeply, but I'm not sure I understand you - or agree with you.

I do assume there are two kinds of banks. One is "retail", or financial services, as I understand it. Gets its money as fees. Another is investment - this one takes risks and reaps rewards, but it's a different kind of organization - somewhat similar to a group of people, who pooled their money and work on a kind of gambling, often reaping rewards, but also taking risks.

Talking about this second group, it's entirely different - for many people who are not members of that group of investors (risk-takers) it's outside of what they deal with. So I'm mostly talking about first group.

For example, my point regarding insurance is that I'm dealing with professionals having different amount of information than I do, and benefiting from that. Theoretically market should bring insurance premiums to some average profit margin. Also theoretically I should be able to earn on average more than I spend on average on insurance, so examples with big expenses are supposed to be exceptions, and on average I'd have more money paying for cases myself. In that sense, insurance premiums are spent (supposed to be, mostly) on cases where insurance events happen.

Next, "those same deposits" - I think the word "principal" is meaningful :) as there won't be interest without principal. So I still think we talk about deposits - together with added relatively modern service of investing, getting some averaged interest and paying some fees to the service which does the investing. Yes, that's the core service. Of retail banks... may be we actually agreeing here?

Next, of course banks invest, that's how they pay that interest. The principal money still aren't theirs - so banks don't "fund" - as in "fund with their own money" - since retail banks by definition don't deal with their own money; instead banks pass those money as credits - or, yes, even to buy shares. The fact that, say, universities takes their budgets from interest shows that service works - but it's not the banks, who "pay" - don't assign the source to them - it's principal, combined with the service (for which banks don't pay, but receive fees), which generates interest. Bank is a sort of an engine which you feed with fuel to get desired outcome (bad analogy, I know), but I think fuel here is more principal (sic), more fundamental than the service.

Post reply on HN