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Why is finance so complex? (2011)

interfluidity.com

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Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#21

The world of finance makes these aspects of your life function: * Allows you to get a mortgage * Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance * Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works * Protects your deposits * Pays for your retirement * Funds the college fund that paid for your school * ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school * Supports the gl…

Well, there could be some counterarguments.

> Allows you to get a mortgage

Wonder if that was always so? Didn't people manage somehow to have a house without something which name suggests it will be paid for the whole life?

> Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance

A casino, right? On average you lose, but for a price you buy a hedge against unforeseen? At least unforeseen for you?

> Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works

I thought my taxes pay for that :) . Do you mean "finances" as "machinery which helps moving money"? I think there are several definitions there.

> Protects your deposits

That's great and helpful

> Pays for your retirement

Nah, that's those same deposits. I largely pay myself for retirement, by saving the whole life. There is also an element of "societal insurance", when I pay a little extra to help myself in case I suddenly become disabled. Or dead. Or, well, not so little; that depends.

> Funds the college fund that paid for your school

Again, it's either another example of "moving money", or an oddity - as people managed to get educated even without banks.

> ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school

Same thing.

> Supports the global supply chain that brings you your iPhone, stocks the grocery store/your favorite restaurants with food, and puts the clothes on your back.

Yes, that's another important role - bringing together lenders and borrowers, for a fee. One ought to assume the fee in the computerized XXI century should be small?

> Funds the growth of corporations large and small, giving you the job that allows you to buy an iPhone

Same thing. Banks don't "fund" - they "serve". Money aren't theirs, but theirs', banks', depositors.

> Funds the massive philanthropy expenditures that help those in need everyday

Talked about that already.

> Pays the pensions of the elderly

We already talked about that.

So, to boil down - banks provide money-related services, like "guarding" deposits (you pay for the privilege) or "investing" deposit money (you ought to share risks and benefits). Other than that...

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#22

The world of finance makes these aspects of your life function: * Allows you to get a mortgage * Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance * Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works * Protects your deposits * Pays for your retirement * Funds the college fund that paid for your school * ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school * Supports the gl…

*If you life in a first world country and come from at least a lower-middle class background

You are talking about money. Not modern wall-street finance.

> huge amount of human progress is owed to modern-day financial institutions.

Like synthetic credit default swaps?

> Like a software system, it's extremely naive to think that complexity is a sign that a system is rotten.

Complexity that can't be coped with is rotten! The Linux kernel is quite complex but each part of it is well understood and there are a lot mechanisms in software to reduce complexity.

> But the vast majority of financial innovations are deeply ingrained in the good life that you get to enjoy every day.

Tell that to Greece people that got into the Euro because of clever CDS from Goldman Sachs or the masses of people that are stuck in debt from their education or credit cards.

> Sometimes we make products that we don't always completely understand until later.

That does not stop you from selling them and acting like you do. However recent financial crises have shown that banks offering these products for the most part understand them... the persons buying them don't.

> Funds the massive philanthropy expenditures that help those in need everyday

That shouldn't be needed in the first place if there wouldn't be such a huge inequality. Philanthropy is not a good idea for a good-working society. There are laws and a justice system that is more fair than a few far too rich persons with a selectively good cause.

> Finance is an art, not a science.

And it should be a tool not an art. A means to an end.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#23

The world of finance makes these aspects of your life function: * Allows you to get a mortgage * Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance * Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works * Protects your deposits * Pays for your retirement * Funds the college fund that paid for your school * ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school * Supports the gl…

The fallacy here is assuming that because it does all of those positive things, it must therefore holistically be optimal.

Like a software system, it's extremely naive to think that complexity is a sign that a system is rotten.

Why would such an assumption be naive?

It doesn't seem naive to me at all. I was reading a 1994 paper that I posted recently called "A Uniform Name Service for Spring's UNIX Environment" which made me think how simplified a modern Unix could be if it adopted the name service primacy described therein from its onset.

It is just as naive to assume that all complexity is intrinsic and not incidental or the result of inadequate abstractions.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#24
post #22

The world of finance makes these aspects of your life function: * Allows you to get a mortgage * Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance * Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works * Protects your deposits * Pays for your retirement * Funds the college fund that paid for your school * ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school * Supports the gl…

*If you life in a first world country and come from at least a lower-middle class background You are talking about money. Not modern wall-street finance. > huge amount of human progress is owed to modern-day financial institutions. Like synthetic credit default swaps? > Like a software system, it's extremely naive to think that complexity is a sign that a system is rotten. Complexity that can't be coped with is rotte…

*If you life in a first world country and come from at least a lower-middle class background

> I'd say this used to be true, but now ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) hurts any class of savers first world et al

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#25
Animal spirits are game theory

Human behavior is a large part of the complexity because we try to use things like game theory to predict how someone will act based on a confined set of conditions which totally ignore the very long game which has been playing from long in the past and will continue long in the future. There are too many factors to account for which can make an actor appear irrational given the posited conditions, however the truth is there can never be a rational actor until we map every input and interaction in someones life. This is why the idea of a rational actor is horseshit.

Nick Szabo did a recent post that covers this:

A small-game fallacy occurs when game theorists, economists, or others trying to apply game-theoretic or microeconomic techniques to real-world problems, posit a simple, and thus cognizable, interaction, under a very limited and precise set of rules, whereas real-world analogous situations take place within longer-term and vastly more complicated games with many more players: "the games of life".

http://unenumerated.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/small-game-falla...

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of these were done 25, 50, or 100 years ago. The basis for the mortgage industry as we know it was developed during the new deal. I need some serious convincing that the effects securitization of everything has been a net win. The markets for most of this stuff are made or directly supported by the Federal government.

I think it's fine: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=unitedstamonsupm0&d... Look at that innovation! How is your life doing recently? I feel like mine is four times better. Oh no wait land is way more expensive and I'm working to pay my landlord every month. Should I go to my bank and make a huge bet on record low rates or wait for them to print some more whilst wages are static?

So tax land rents, not labor.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#27
post #21

The world of finance makes these aspects of your life function: * Allows you to get a mortgage * Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance * Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works * Protects your deposits * Pays for your retirement * Funds the college fund that paid for your school * ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school * Supports the gl…

Well, there could be some counterarguments. > Allows you to get a mortgage Wonder if that was always so? Didn't people manage somehow to have a house without something which name suggests it will be paid for the whole life? > Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance A casino, right? On average you lose, but for a price you buy a hedge against unforeseen? At least unforeseen for you…

Most states provide a state backed deposit guarantee. It's not guaranteed by the banks.

Plus regarding "funding" education etc they do no such thing, this is funded by the state. The post you reply to is littered with incorrect statements. Well done for calling some out.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's fine: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=unitedstamonsupm0&d... Look at that innovation! How is your life doing recently? I feel like mine is four times better. Oh no wait land is way more expensive and I'm working to pay my landlord every month. Should I go to my bank and make a huge bet on record low rates or wait for them to print some more whilst wages are static?

So tax land rents, not labor.

I agree. Land value tax. It would cut the banks down to size in no time as it would cut down land speculation which makes up the bulk of bank lending.

Re: Why is finance so complex? (2011)

#30

The world of finance makes these aspects of your life function: * Allows you to get a mortgage * Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance * Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works * Protects your deposits * Pays for your retirement * Funds the college fund that paid for your school * ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school * Supports the gl…

>* Allows you to get a mortgage

Simply the base artifact of modern finance. Why do I need a mortgage? (hint: to supply interest payments to banks AKA the institutors of the world of modern finance)

>* Allows you to protect yourself with health/car/life/home/title/etc insurance

See above.

>* Pays for your highways/stadiums/schools and other public works

"Pays". A meaningless word.

>* Protects your deposits

Only through magic. If deposits are lost, they are merely re-created as modern finance is an arbitrary mathematical construct.

>* Pays for your retirement

"Pays for your retirement"

>* Funds the college fund that paid for your school

"Funds the fund" that "paid". Again, meaningless except insofar as your school depends on magic numbers being circulated.

>* ... Or the student loans that allowed you to attend school

Ah, yes, the loans; again, the foundational unit of modern finance, without which the "world of finance" would be radically different.

>* Supports the global supply chain that brings you your iPhone, stocks the grocery store/your favorite restaurants with food, and puts the clothes on your back.

Supports in name, but is curiously not actually involved in any physical aspect of realizing any of those things.

>* Funds the growth of corporations large and small, giving you the job that allows you to buy an iPhone

"Funds" ... "giving [me] the job"

>* Funds the massive philanthropy expenditures that help those in need everyday

"Funds", because the actual work is done by real people.

>* Pays the pensions of the elderly

I guess the system isn't complete evil.

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