Greeks Reject Bailout Terms • Hacker News Board

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#241

Post by jqm » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:00 PM UTC

sktrdie wrote: post #26

I know I will be treated as an extreme futurist, but we live in this little tiny spec called Earth and we're all in this together. The idea that there are laws about environmental protection in one country and none in others, calls to the idea that we should just have a single unifying country called "world" and keep the current separation only for cultural reasons. The EU was a step in this direction but it seems th…

I've sometimes thought there should be exactly two levels of government... International (non-optional and all countries participate) and County (~2500 km2 and several thousand to maybe 10 million max people).

The world has gotten smaller and the effects nations have on each other larger. It's dangerous and it's not efficient. At the same time people have their local customs and laws (and spending habits). So let that be. But enforce bans on slavery, genocide, trade route monopolization, nuclear weapons, pollution etc. At an international level.

As it is, it seems national governments are in general problematic... both to local communities and to the global community. I think eventually they can be done without.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#242

Post by haberman » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:00 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #167

huhtenberg wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greece effectively lied its way into the EU. It doesn't exactly leave much place for any moral appeals. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Financial_Audit,_2004

From what I've read, that appears to be a lie agreed upon: private banks in Europe had a major profit interest in securing speculative Greek debt.

This would seem to be a core evil of the situation: investors chased risky money but are apparently not expected to be capable of weathering a Greek default.

The risk/reward curve is the fundamental idea of investment. If we privatize reward but nationalize risk, the cost of bonds/mortgages/etc. will never reflect reality. I shudder to think of a system where governments are implicitly assumed to insure everything that's "too big to fail."

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#243

Post by tptacek » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:01 PM UTC

liebknecht wrote: post #219

tptacek wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As opposed to "look at those Germans, they're terrorists who are using control of the ECB to extort a regime change in Greece", which is an equally hyperbolic message --- and, in contrast the to the summary you've provided, actually a message overtly sent by Greece's leadership.

Except that Varoufakis was referring the Troika (or rather, their actions: he used the word "terrorism", not the more loaded term "terrorist") when he said that, not to the Germans as a people (or even to German banks, or their politicians). At no point in the El Mundo article did he call the Germans "terrorists", and -- worse than hyperbolic -- it's irresponsible for you to suggest that he did.

The troika includes Germany. My impression of Germany's role in the troika ("Germany is the backbone of obduracy in the troika") could be wrong. Is it?

Here's what Varoufakis said:

What they’re doing with Greece has a name — terrorism

[...]

Why did they force us to close the banks? To instill fear in people. And spreading fear is called terrorism.

My point, of course, is that these were both hyperbolic arguments.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#244

Post by elorant » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:02 PM UTC

SneakerXZ wrote: post #225

atmosx wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that you are convinced that Germany acted in Greece's best interest is what sets us apart. Your money went mainly to your Banks, via Greece. Concluding, I'd rather go back to the Drachma and blow the Euro project than die starving becuase it suits your country's political class. ps. Even if Greece doesn't put the last nail on the coffin of the EU-project, I'm 100% sure that the UK will.

If you think Greece will do better without EU you are wrong. You will end up as Macedonia, Albania, Bulgaria or Romania (last two will do probably better) so I don't think you will like it. Also your credibility will be destroyed because if you decided not you pay your depts nobody will borrow you any money in next years. You have problems with collecting taxes, you overspend money on public sector and social system…

Your country doesn't have strategic position

From all the arguments I’ve read this is the most hilarious. Dude, have you opened a map lately? Half of Middle East is in flames including parts of northern Africa. And we have no strategic position? Greece is what stands between Europe and legions of refugees from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. Not to mention the fuckers from ISIS who want to infiltrate Europe. Thank God we’re in NATO otherwise we could allow Russia to build a naval base in Greece and watch EU and US go ballistic.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#245

Post by tptacek » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:02 PM UTC

alexandros wrote: post #240

tptacek wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems to depend entirely on who you ask. Greece claims to have run a 2014 primary surplus. The EC and ECB appear to recognize a smaller 2014 surplus (smaller than Greece claims). But IMF's most recent review suggests that there was no surplus: Greece had been counting privatization revenue (ie: the sale of utilities, ports, and airports) --- which they technically weren't supposed to, and those revenues turned o…

First, as long as you're retracting your original statement about 8-10% deficit, we're good. I'm not going to argue 1.5% down or up. Nobody's talking about paying the loans and keeping the country going without help. What people are saying is that Greece can support itself, minus the loans.

I think you've responded to the wrong comment. I never claimed an 8-10% deficit.

Also: you haven't explained how Greece can support itself, minus the loans, while still running a deficit even before interest payments on those loans.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#246

Post by vidarh » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:03 PM UTC

crimsoneer wrote: post #124

jwdunne wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that major spending cuts during a downturn are harmful, which is what Greece has been in pretty much since austerity. Greece has problems, I admit, but austerity during a downturn only makes that worse. Party comes along and says it wants to do invest in the economy because, clearly, austerity isn't working and we won't give them a chance. There are reports from the IMF and many other leading figures that now…

Greece was doing rather well at the end of 2014 before Syriza decided to stop playing ball.

Not according to the IMF, who, while their report have some choice words for the Greek government too, have made it quite clear that the bailouts have been a total disaster.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#247

Post by base » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:08 PM UTC

paskster wrote: post #59

atmosx wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that you are convinced that Germany acted in Greece's best interest is what sets us apart. Your money went mainly to your Banks, via Greece. Concluding, I'd rather go back to the Drachma and blow the Euro project than die starving becuase it suits your country's political class. ps. Even if Greece doesn't put the last nail on the coffin of the EU-project, I'm 100% sure that the UK will.

I am very pro Euro. But I don't like the fact that a single country in Europe feels that 18 other countries have to pay their debt. These bailouts in the past were signed from the greece government in the best interest of its people. A lot of people make it seem that we (non-greece european) somewhat forced theses agreements onto greece. In fact these bailouts where were unpopular in Germany, because it cost us a lot…

"In fact these bailouts where were unpopular in Germany, because it cost us a lot of our money, we could have spent on infrastructure, education, etc." The money was provided as a loan, was not given for free, you even get a return on investment so that kind of comments are made by populist politicians and don't make any sense.

https://medium.com/@gavinschalliol/thomas-piketty-germany-ha...

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#248

Post by StavrosK » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:08 PM UTC

jwdunne wrote: post #168

atmosx wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're free to down-vote me, I don't care :-) I can assure no hard feelings about it... I had expressed many unpopular opinions on HN and had been downvoted many times, never held me back from expressing my views. What I'm saying is that solidarity towards Germany was key in 1945. Now it's time to make a Marshall plan for Greece that will bring 'justice' to the country, fix our tax-system, etc. Every Greek would welc…

I agree with you in that Greece's debt does need to be substantially restructured because it's unsustainable. I just think the whole "setting of precedence" is what's keeping us fixed in the same place. I don't believe that it sets any sort of precedence where everyone in the union can just not pay their debts. In society, we allow people to negotiate debt repayments in a way that isn't harmful to them and their fami…

You're right, nobody is saying "screw it, we just won't pay". Hell, I'd be ecstatic if changes were instituted that reduced bureaucracy, made the public sector simpler and more transparent for citizens, and fostered entrepreneurship, rather than the current climate of uncertainty.

Unfortunately, right now, everyone in Greece is paralyzed, because they don't know if, a few months from now, a new tax or law will be instituted that will kill their business, or mean they will no longer be able to feed their family (for the ones that still can). I think this prolonged uncertainty is the biggest problem right now.

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#249

Post by Nelson69 » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:09 PM UTC

JulianMorrison wrote: post #175

paskster wrote: post #23

I am astouned by all the comments, who say that "Greeks were getting a shitty deal" or that the bailout terms were somewhat "unfair". Facts are: Greece had a spending deficit for several decades now. This spending deficit accumulated to such a big dept, that no investors were willing to lend greece any more money. 18 european countries transferred billions of euros in the last couple of years to greece, to help the c…

I don't think anybody sees Greece as innocent of creating the debt. But. 1. The ones bailed out have been private bankers, by public funds. 2. Austerity, demanded as the cure for deficit spending, has dragged Greece into a recession and achieved exactly none of its aims - spending is still high as a proportion of GDP, because GDP has crashed. 3. The creditors have stopped demanding austerity as a policy aimed at crea…

Point 4 is sane? Greece doesn't seem interested in repaying their debt now, you think they're going to care in 10 years after just writing some of it off? Why won't they expect the rest to go away too? I think a lot of the "no" voters simply don't see any services from their government to justify their taxes, they already avoid taxes at endemic levels, and fundamentally don't actually feel any ownership for the debt.

Moreover, can their economy recover without outside help? What does that actually look like? That's the bigger issue, any way you slice it, they got really used to making promises and living larger than they are. The wish or risk or whatever is that the ECB will want to recover some of that debt and in exchange for that wish, write off a large chunk of it and then continue to give them handouts. What does a viable Greek economy actually look like?

Re: Greeks Reject Bailout Terms

#250

Post by Nelson69 » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 11:09 PM UTC

JulianMorrison wrote: post #175

paskster wrote: post #23

I am astouned by all the comments, who say that "Greeks were getting a shitty deal" or that the bailout terms were somewhat "unfair". Facts are: Greece had a spending deficit for several decades now. This spending deficit accumulated to such a big dept, that no investors were willing to lend greece any more money. 18 european countries transferred billions of euros in the last couple of years to greece, to help the c…

I don't think anybody sees Greece as innocent of creating the debt. But. 1. The ones bailed out have been private bankers, by public funds. 2. Austerity, demanded as the cure for deficit spending, has dragged Greece into a recession and achieved exactly none of its aims - spending is still high as a proportion of GDP, because GDP has crashed. 3. The creditors have stopped demanding austerity as a policy aimed at crea…

Point 4 is sane? Greece doesn't seem interested in repaying their debt now, you think they're going to care in 10 years after just writing some of it off? Why won't they expect the rest to go away too? I think a lot of the "no" voters simply don't see any services from their government to justify their taxes, they already avoid taxes at endemic levels, and fundamentally don't actually feel any ownership for the debt.

Moreover, can their economy recover without outside help? What does that actually look like? That's the bigger issue, any way you slice it, they got really used to making promises and living larger than they are. The wish or risk or whatever is that the ECB will want to recover some of that debt and in exchange for that wish, write off a large chunk of it and then continue to give them handouts. What does a viable Greek economy actually look like?