Greece • Hacker News Board

Re: Greece

#171

Post by peterfirefly » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 12:34 PM UTC

Amezarak wrote: post #75

WalterBright wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would expect that austerity would shrink the GDP. After all, if a business is only viable if it receives constant infusions of cash, then shutting off that cash would shut down the company, and its output would no longer contribute to the GDP. But it was not a productive business, anyway.

> After all, if a business is only viable if it receives constant infusions of cash, The Greek government runs a primary budget surplus. http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-misses-target-on-budget-s... Just not one large enough to satisfy creditors. That means, without the debt payments, Greece would be free and clear and wouldn't have any budget issues. The only reason Greece needs 'constant infusions of cash' is to…

No, they probably /don't/ have a primary surplus. They briefly did, but that was before Syriza.

Most of the recent infusions of cash were part of the ELA -- so /not/ to pay off debts but to compensate for illiquid (or insolvent...) banks and the stave off bank runs.

The debt payments are /not/ in any way big or difficult -- the EU took over most of the debt and in the process forced through a large haircut on the debt + Greece got artificially low (very low!) interest rates + enormous maturity extensions. Greece also got (much) deferred payments for that debt, especially for the interest.

Re: Greece

#172

Post by peterfirefly » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 12:38 PM UTC

josephlord wrote: post #61

mike_hearn wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reforms are the only long term solution. They're reforms like, maybe Greeks should retire at the same age that other people in Europe do. Maybe hairdressing should not be considered a 'dangerous profession', thus unlocking various benefits. Maybe Greek train drivers should not be paid $130,000 a year to drive near-empty trains. Maybe Greece should be able to grow its own food instead of importing more than half o…

No reforms in the world will allow Greece to meet the current liabilities, even the IMF says so. The bigger the surplus the Government runs (to pay back the creditors) the more the economy will shrink and the further more they will miss their target by. Germany isn't paying for Greece, it (well the troika but Germany is significantly calling the shots) is effectively governing Greece by a series of manufactured crise…

> No reforms in the world will allow Greece to meet the current liabilities, even the IMF says so.

That is demonstrably NOT what the IMF says. Quite the contrary, in fact.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/07/03/tsipras-i...

Re: Greece

#173

Post by dragandj » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 12:39 PM UTC

miopa wrote: post #47

brohee wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Implementing a land registry and getting people to pay taxes is not punishment... What part of the reform is actually punitive? The history of the Greek land registry is kinda hilarious btw... http://openeurope.org.uk/blog/reforming-greece-easier-said-d...

There is an additional reason that makes the 'Cadastre' extremly difficult project for Greece. A lot of the land in northern Greece is claimed (with documents) by people who are now citizens of Republic of Macedonia. Greece will break some EU laws if it doesn't honor those documents, but that land is used for more than 60 years by other people or the Greek state.

Ah, unwillingness to return stolen property to the righteous owners is a valid excuse?

Re: Greece

#174

Post by peterfirefly » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 12:47 PM UTC

throwaway2048 wrote: post #95

tormeh wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a heads-up that the concept that the creditors must accept risk is a very anglo-saxon perspective. The German view is that debts are to be paid back, period. If you don't pay them back you're a morally deficient scoundrel. If you're ever bankrupt then the legal system will permanently brand you. German economics is a mix of Austrian school economics and strict morals. It doesn't excuse the largely international…

just like germany paid off its debts post ww1 and ww2?

There shouldn't have been /any/ debt after WWI (except to Belgium, who didn't ask to be a battle field in the self defense of Germany).

Russia, France, Britain, and the US should have paid reparations to Germany, not the other way around.

Why? Because Germany /didn't/ start the war. It just ended up as one of the losers.

Germany had huge territorial losses after both wars, parts of Germany were under forceful occupation for a long time afterwards, and they paid heavily in terms of manufacturing equipment and money afterwards. I'd say they paid.

Re: Greece

#175

Post by peterfirefly » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 12:53 PM UTC

icebraining wrote: post #83

telepheron wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who says the creditors were fully aware of the government's misrepresentations? Those misrepresentations were discovered when the Troika started to investigate Greece's financial state.

News articles from back in 2003 openly said that the dealing Greece had with Goldman-Sachs were a way of playing with the numbers to present an "acceptable" deficit. It wasn't hidden. Also, from 2004, long before any Troka: "Greece admits fudging euro entry" "Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said the announcement would not be a surprise for Brussels insiders. "Quite a few member sta…

Everybody knew they cheated (as did France and Italy, for example). The /extent/ was a surprise.

Re: Greece

#176

Post by gizi » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 12:55 PM UTC

huhtenberg wrote: post #166

gizi wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually sympathize with the Tsipras guy. He took on an impossible job and in my opinion he is actually making the best of it. You see, Greece has to default. We all know that. All that is needed now, is a sufficient number of face-saving gestures that will allow everybody to come out of this heads up high. Angela Merkel is grumbling and fumbling in the back, but she can be talked in to accepting a new deal, on the…

> he is actually making the best of it Please tell me you were making a joke. Trying to collect WW2 "debt" from Germany? Using "insulted dignity" as an argument in financial negotiations? Deliberately setting up the referendum after the deadline and then "pleading" for extension? Really? He is pulling all the stops, granted, but they are nothing short of sleazy and obnoxious. If EU are to cave in, it would basically…

Concerning Greece paying up, you have no choice: they can't. Read my lips: They have no money. The EU proposal was simply not realistic. Any proposal that contains the idea that Greece would be paying up, is a dead-end, non-starter.

Concerning Greece remaining in the EU and the Euro, you do have a choice. It would be short-sighted to expel Greece. You see, everybody just has to learn their lesson. In the future, don't let your commercial banks buy too much Greek debt paper, because you will end up paying instead. It takes two to tango. There's no point in blaming just one side of the equation. The other side is responsible too.

Re: Greece

#177

Post by crdoconnor » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 1:03 PM UTC

PhantomGremlin wrote: post #156

crdoconnor wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in other words you think that the wealthy do not yet have enough representation in government? That's quite a bold claim.

Like I said, an "experiment". Really a "thought experiment" since I don't see this being constitutional anywhere in the USA, and I'm not familiar enough with other countries to know where it could be tried. Here's something simpler: Look at your previous year Federal tax return. If it shows that you paid even $1 in taxes, you get a vote in Federal elections. If not, then no vote. Same with State taxes. Simple enough?…

>Here's something simpler: Look at your previous year Federal tax return. If it shows that you paid even $1 in taxes, you get a vote in Federal elections. >Simple enough? Or would that still give too much representation to "the wealthy"?

No, but then again it's not substantially different to what we already have, so I don't see the point.

WTF is up with your quotation marks anyway?

Re: Greece

#178

Post by the_why_of_y » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 1:05 PM UTC

jboydyhacker wrote: post #72

How do you call this an analysis? This is pretty blatant political polemic. It isn't an "analysis" but a rant. The Greeks lied about their financial condition in an effort to support a pension system that lets people retire far earlier than the rest of Europe. Bring the pension system and other spending in line in exchange for some haircuts on the debt- that's the fair answer. Not this crud about how the other Europe…

> The Greeks lied about their financial condition in an effort to support a pension system that lets people retire far earlier than the rest of Europe.

This is incorrect: the average age of retirement in Greece is not lower than every other country in the EU; in fact for men it is exactly the same as in Germany.

http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/finance...

If you want to make the case that an EU country needs to raise its retirement age, make it for Belgium or France.

Re: Greece

#179

Post by tomp » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 1:15 PM UTC

derriz wrote: post #150

zaroth wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TFA is arguing the private creditors got off far too easily. Having made the loans of their own accord, pocketing the interest payments up to that point, you can be sure the private creditors were quite happy to have the debt off their hands in 2012. This is the largest transfer from private credit to public credit in history, right? These are the same loans Greece is now actually completely unable to service. The pa…

I don't think you understand NVP and debt. You seem to be suggesting Greek debt be discounted at something close to the risk free rate? These discount rates are correct. The value of a promise of future cash payments from the Greek government is worth far less than one from the US or German governments for example. If you actually believe that Greek debt should be discounted much less, I'll happily swap any amount of…

If you can expect to be bailed outif the debtor defaults, then yes, you should use the risk free rate for discounting.

Re: Greece

#180

Post by gaius » Sun, Jul 05, 2015, 1:18 PM UTC

gizi wrote: post #176

huhtenberg wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> he is actually making the best of it Please tell me you were making a joke. Trying to collect WW2 "debt" from Germany? Using "insulted dignity" as an argument in financial negotiations? Deliberately setting up the referendum after the deadline and then "pleading" for extension? Really? He is pulling all the stops, granted, but they are nothing short of sleazy and obnoxious. If EU are to cave in, it would basically…

Concerning Greece paying up, you have no choice: they can't. Read my lips: They have no money. The EU proposal was simply not realistic. Any proposal that contains the idea that Greece would be paying up, is a dead-end, non-starter. Concerning Greece remaining in the EU and the Euro, you do have a choice. It would be short-sighted to expel Greece. You see, everybody just has to learn their lesson. In the future, don'…

They have no money

Greece doesn't sure. But the Greeks do. That is at the very heart of this situation.