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Greece

interfluidity.com

71–80 of 209 posts

Re: Greece

#71
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a purely economic solution, a Grexit combined with a default might work. However, who would step up and finance the ongoing deficit? As I added in my edit, Greece has a primary budget surplus. There would be no ongoing deficit. Existing debt would be paid off with the expedient of default and currency devaluation, just as other countries have historically done. A little rough patch and then things look up. Seems…

How will a country that has no money and terrible credit do when it needs to import 50% of its food?

> How will a country that has no money and terrible credit do when it needs to import 50% of its food?

Greece, and Greeks, do have money. I am not sure what you mean. It's not as if Greece is the only poor country which imports most of its food.

Food prices have already been skyrocketing. As the article points out, austerity has tanked the Greek economy despite repeated predictions by European 'experts' that any minute now, austerity would cause Greece to turn a corner. Why do you think food prices would get substantially worse?

Re: Greece

#72
How do you call this an analysis? This is pretty blatant political polemic. It isn't an "analysis" but a rant. The Greeks lied about their financial condition in an effort to support a pension system that lets people retire far earlier than the rest of Europe. Bring the pension system and other spending in line in exchange for some haircuts on the debt- that's the fair answer. Not this crud about how the other European countries "betrayed" Greece. Man that' some offensive nonsense.

Re: Greece

#73
Tyler Cowen responds:

“Interfluidity has an interesting but quite wrong post on how to think about Greece. International relations simply could not be run on the principles he advocates, most of all in conjunction with democratic nation states. His weakest point becomes evident when he writes:

““Among creditors, a big catchphrase now is “moral hazard”. We cannot be too kind to Greece, we cannot forgive their debt with few string attached, because what kind of precedent would that set? If bad borrowers, other sovereigns, got the idea that they can overborrow without consequence, if Spanish and Portuguese populists perceive perhaps a better deal is on offer, they might demand that. They might continue to borrow and expect forgiveness, and where would it end except for the bankruptcy of the good Europeans who actually produce and save?

“The nerve. The fucking nerve. Lenders, having been made nearly whole on their ill-conceived, profit-motivated punts, now fear that if anybody is nice to somebody who doesn’t deserve it, where will it end? I’d resort to that cliché about chutspa, the kid who murders his parents then seeks leniency ‘cuz he’s an orphan. But it’s really too cute for the occasion.”

“That’s a non-answer, with anger filling in for the required substance as to why Germany and others should allow this. “Your government is making things much worse. If you want to borrow so much more from us, you have to play by the rules and also stop spitting in our face and calling us Nazis and terrorists while negotiating” is more relevant — and yes relevant is the right word here — than any point he makes.

“A political program has to be something that voters could at least potentially believe, and international negotiations therefore cannot stray too far from common-sense morality, including when it comes to creditor-debtor relations. That is the point which today’s progressive economists are running away from as fast as is humanly possible. And for all the Buchanan-esque and public choice points about “rules of the game” this one about common sense morality unfortunately has ended up as the most important.

“Look at this way: if you lost a public relations battle to Germany, you are probably doing something very badly wrong.”

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/07/gre...

Re: Greece

#75
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The creditors ( banks ) are part of "moral" game here too. If the Euro cannot handle Greek ( and Spanish , Italian, Portuguese , Irish ) default then members of the Euro must share the imbalance. As an american tax payer it hurt to watch bank bailouts here. In europe I keep hearing countries names, but this is a bank bailout fundamentally. Sticking the debt on national governments while also forcing austerity ( defac…

I would expect that austerity would shrink the GDP. After all, if a business is only viable if it receives constant infusions of cash, then shutting off that cash would shut down the company, and its output would no longer contribute to the GDP. But it was not a productive business, anyway.

> After all, if a business is only viable if it receives constant infusions of cash,

The Greek government runs a primary budget surplus.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-misses-target-on-budget-s...

Just not one large enough to satisfy creditors. That means, without the debt payments, Greece would be free and clear and wouldn't have any budget issues. The only reason Greece needs 'constant infusions of cash' is to pay off these debts, which becomes more difficult as more austerity is demanded.

Re: Greece

#76
post #49

The title was edited from "The best analysis of the situation in Greece" to "Greece". The former title, while baity, is a much better description of the article than just the name of the country. Might as well call it "Blog". It would have been much better to, for example, delete "the best" and leave "analysis of the situation in" so that readers understand what about Greece is being discussed.

“Greece” is the title of the post, so this follows the standard HN norm. Also, anyone paying any attention at all to world news knows what aspect of Greece is likely to be being discussed.

Re: Greece

#77
post #49

The title was edited from "The best analysis of the situation in Greece" to "Greece". The former title, while baity, is a much better description of the article than just the name of the country. Might as well call it "Blog". It would have been much better to, for example, delete "the best" and leave "analysis of the situation in" so that readers understand what about Greece is being discussed.

“Greece” is the title of the post, so this follows the standard HN norm. Also, anyone paying any attention at all to world news knows what aspect of Greece is likely to be being discussed.

I saw it post-edit and knew it was surely some sort of analysis about the current situation in Greece.

Re: Greece

#78
post #27

The basic idea: BMW wants to sell more cars to greeks. Greeks don't have enough money so they can't buy. Deutsche Bank (DB) gives "free money" in loans. (And of course DB knows that greece isn't exactly "strong" economically.) We are talking about a greek population that never ever had a loan before, while the prime minister talks about the "powerful (economically) greece". They also thought that the world "stock mar…

Truth. German and Greek taxpayers are paying back rich creditors that made dumb loans. The Greek people get especially screwed. The current shot-callers have little interest in long-term political stability and the well-being of citizens. They just want their money back and are glad to turn this into a morality play. What makes it worse is that Germany is just about the worst actor to be preaching from the pulpit of economic morality. They have benefitted multiple times in the past from debt forgiveness and the chance to rebuild. There was a time when the world realized the error of exacting retribution through economic penalties. Hence the willingness of allies (primarily the US) to dump tons of capital into rebuilding Germany, even after they started WWII. Then a ton more debt was forgiven later since Germany could NOT afford to service their debt and build their economy- a deal Greece would kill for. Instead Greece wants to run a slightly lower surplus so they can provide services, a social safety net and some stimulus... bastards /s.

Re: Greece

#79
post #59
post #55

This was my main take-away: "There is one morality tale that says the debtor must repay, or she has sinned and must be punished. There is another morality tale that says the creditor must invest wisely, or she has stewarded resources poorly and must be punished. We get to choose which morality tale we most use to make sense of the world. We do, and surely should, use both to some degree. But if we emphasize the first…

Unfortunately, it's neither. The debtors in this case are the people of Greece, yet the ones who got them indebted are politicians, who misled the population into believing that the expenses the government had were sustainable. Even more important is that the politicians were not voted in by 100% of people, which simply means that many people who lost their money didn't agree with the policy that led to them losing t…

half the population ... oblige the other half

I'd love to see an experiment where democracy was modified. People should get multiple votes, proportional not to their income or their wealth, but to the amount of taxes they paid the previous year.

There would need to be some sort of limit. E.g. nobody gets less than 1 vote nor more than 10.

But something like that would create what some call "skin in the game". Those people who pay the most money will have the most influence on government.

It's been proposed before, but never implemented AFAIK. Still, "the usual stuff isn't working". Why not some experimenting?

Re: Greece

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a purely economic solution, a Grexit combined with a default might work. However, who would step up and finance the ongoing deficit? Interest rates even for short term borrowing would be unsustainable. What would happen in the meantime, until such a Grexit could actually be performed? The banks don't have money any more, there's no infrastructure to print new bills, there's no plan on how to actually do that. It's…

> As a purely economic solution, a Grexit combined with a default might work. However, who would step up and finance the ongoing deficit? As I added in my edit, Greece has a primary budget surplus. There would be no ongoing deficit. Existing debt would be paid off with the expedient of default and currency devaluation, just as other countries have historically done. A little rough patch and then things look up. Seems…

Leaving the Euro does not mean leaving the EU. The "Eurozone" is the subset of EU countries using the Euro as their currency.
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