I think despite Steve Ballmer's fanaticism, Microsoft knows its dying. They're already diversifying into safer industries like enterprise, gaming, and media. These are not hostile takeovers like in the old days, they're major moves trying to position MS as a major player in the respective fields. I think the MS identity well remain, but it will become a much more diluted entity, with branches each going its separate way.
Microsoft is Dead
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Re: Microsoft is Dead
#22I think the situation is somewhat unpredictable since Microsoft could try to break AJAX apps by introducing all sorts of problems in IE. Unreliable AJAX apps under IE would discourage users from using web apps. Most users are generally clueless and will not try to switch to another browser. Microsoft could also undermine the business model of many web services by providing free advertising. The ads could even appear…
It would take an incredible amount of sack for Microsoft to deliberately break IE; there's no way they would ever take a risk like that and I really doubt it would play out like you think. Web based applications have way too much momentum. Initially the clueless would go without, but the backlash would be so severe in the development and tech communities that pretty soon the clueless would have a working alternative preinstalled. The big internet companies (the ones we should still actually fear) would step in right away and partner with consumer hardware companies to make this happen.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#23Microsoft is still and will likely continue to be the world's most profitable software company. OS X will not reach 20% global marketshare by the end of the decade and Goldman Sachs IBankers will still be punching away on MS Excel for the foreseeable future. What does it mean to be dead then? What I think Paul Graham is saying, and this is underscored by the notion of "being dangerous," is that Microsoft is no longer…
Microsoft was never the place new ideas and true innovation came from. But they did once have the power to shut down people who had them. They no longer do; that's what's changed.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#24I agree, the shadow is gone - but for how long? As much as I am frustrated with having to use XP (My Autodesk BIM cad system only runs on it), I wouldn't underestimate MS's ability to bounce back from bad directions/decisions like they have in the past. If Gates radically changes his vision and business model to the new web world and gets Balmer to agree, they could dominate again. But can a company that has written…
Speaking of CAD software, how long until we will have an online version? (I would guess CAD software is on the same order of complexity as photoshop.) Are any perspective YCers working on it?
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#25No post body was provided.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#26To paraphrase how management guru Peter Drucker put it "Growth that increases productivity is healthy, growth without an increase in productivity is fat, and growth that decreases productivity is cancer...."
Lately, MS has been coming up with nothing but Bloatware. To be productive these days, all I need is a Live CD of Linux Puppy and connect to the net to access all the online applications I need for work.... I store all my files online and access them from anywhere in the world....
Once I am on the net, it matters little if I use OSX, Windows or Linux. It is only a matter of time before Web based applications will be as good as desktop applications....
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#27I think despite Steve Ballmer's fanaticism, Microsoft knows its dying. They're already diversifying into safer industries like enterprise, gaming, and media. These are not hostile takeovers like in the old days, they're major moves trying to position MS as a major player in the respective fields. I think the MS identity well remain, but it will become a much more diluted entity, with branches each going its separate…
Media isn't a safe industry. Not for very long at least.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#28I think the situation is somewhat unpredictable since Microsoft could try to break AJAX apps by introducing all sorts of problems in IE. Unreliable AJAX apps under IE would discourage users from using web apps. Most users are generally clueless and will not try to switch to another browser. Microsoft could also undermine the business model of many web services by providing free advertising. The ads could even appear…
It would take an incredible amount of sack for Microsoft to deliberately break IE; there's no way they would ever take a risk like that and I really doubt it would play out like you think. Web based applications have way too much momentum. Initially the clueless would go without, but the backlash would be so severe in the development and tech communities that pretty soon the clueless would have a working alternative…
Even if Microsoft does not intentionally break IE, what incentive would it have to improve support for AJAX apps?
For example, what incentive would it have to support an offline mode for AJAX apps?
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#29I disagree with the general sentiment of the article (mostly the hyperbole), but one quote hit the nail on the head: "They're in a different world."
There's no question that Microsoft is still dominant in the areas they care about, and because of that dominance they're likely to stay there. At this point, I think people understand that dominance intuitively and so don't really even try to beat Microsoft, especially since the web-as-a-platform thing is looking so exciting.
Re: Microsoft is Dead
#30The link to 'The Other Road Ahead' is broken.
Edit: looks fixed now.