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Energy

blog.samaltman.com

271–280 of 287 posts

Re: Energy

#271
I'm sorry I missed this earlier because I wish Sam could see this comment.

Nuclear energy is inherently centralized and difficult to decentralize. This creates all sorts of political and economic dynamics, some of which you (Sam, and YC) may benefit from, but some of which may be damaging to societies in various ways (think corruption, control, monopolies, etc.)

Obviously this isn't necessarily true for all possible as-yet-unimagined implementations of nuclear technology. But it's something to think about when comparing energy technologies.

Solar, on the other hand, while not necessarily inherently decentralized, is extremely decentralizable, leading to very different dynamics.

I'm not saying Nuclear is bad. I'm just saying this stuff should be factored in.

Re: Energy

#272

Probably not. Energy isn't really what is holding the poor back - a lack of stability and security are. If I had to chose one technological improvement to help most people on the planet it would probably be benevolent AI, which could refocus many of our challenges to what is important. Getting people out of poverty and war. Energy is a tiny component of modern civilization.

Energy is the sole basis of modern civilization. We are Hydrocarbon Man.

Energy isn't why there are poor people though. The poor have plenty of energy in the form of sun and coal and wind. $50 worth of energy can get you from New York to Toronto. Energy isn't the problem. The problem is security and education.

Re: Energy

#273
post #143
post #20

I suspect solar (including wind/biomass) + batteries is going to trounce fission reactors in the not terribly long term. If you think of finance in terms of latency/bandwidth (a model I use for lots of things), reactors are high latency - they're expensive and take a long time to set up. Meanwhile, solar/wind is heading toward dirt cheap and trivial to set up. Environmental impact is minimal, too. It doesn't require…

where is nuclear in your theory?

In my theory, nuclear is mostly irrelevant. It's not a model for the third world (who can't afford or operate reactors, even if the rich nations would let them have one), it's not a model for low population densities, and it generally costs in the billions and requires the involvement of both local government and international regulatory agencies.

Sure, UPower and others are working on reactors that are small scale, cheaper, safe, and hard to weaponize. But they're still a limited solution to the problems I'm bringing up.

Fusion is a fantasy. Maybe someday it will be real, but betting the world on it is foolish.

Solar is cheap, fine-grained, clean, sustainable, and not weaponizable. It solves all my core problems. Why should I care about difficult, expensive, dangerous nuclear?

Re: Energy

#274
post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not poorly secured, and the material is not weaponizable. Not to mention they are not toxic sites, the waste is put into a block of metal that is completely passively cooled so it can't melt. It is buried, and it is secured. And they would generally be deployed in multi unit farms. Plus, no need to throw away the energy, especially if it's cheaper than energy from gas or coal.

How are they secured in theory then?

Buried, sealed, and guarded with armed former spec ops folks.

Re: Energy

#275
post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're exactly right, and that's what we designed for with UPower. I would have written the exact same thing when we began talking about doing something in nuclear 5 years ago. Too many reactors are designed without the market or financing in mind. We decided on the simplest possible reactor optimized to a size useful to a market in dire need- just MW scale. It has no pumps, no water in the reactor, and builds upon a…

It's exciting work, to be sure. Before now, the only small-scale nuclear work I'd seen were plutonium batteries (like for powering satellites), which are horrendously expensive and not something you ever want in the hands of Bad Actors. It looks like UPower is currently targeting environments where traditional power is impractical and lots of power is needed, and plenty of budget is available - remote mines, military…

The short answer is yes. We see this as our Tesla roadster (well designed niche product for a market willing to pay, in this case however, desperately in need for a solution that doesn't involve constant shipments of expensive and polluting diesel for loud generators) from which we will streamline and optimize to make our "model 3" so we can produce something to meet and even beat grid prices. It actually isn't a big jump between the two, we have good indication now that it will be possible without much iteration to beat grid prices in all but the cheapest markets. And as you pointed out, the financing at that stage will play a significant part. :)

Re: Energy

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the difference between chemical toxic waste is that there are accessible methods for making it non-toxic. It's just a matter of cost. For example, toxic organic and inorganic compounds can be thermally decomposed. For organics, you create elemental carbon. For inorganics (containing metal ions), you can reform the metal and collect it. Acid/base waste can be neutralized. You can't really do that for radioactive…

What about elemental toxins like mercury and arsenic?

Just collect and store. They can be purified and have commercial use. Otherwise, since they came from the earth in the first place, storing it back in the earth doesn't change the amount of toxins we have in the ground.

Re: Energy

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am one of the UPower founders. There are two big stories here that most people don't know yet: 1) that a fast reactor can be waste-negative, I.e. transform existing waste to energy. 2) a fast reactor destroys the long lived waste- instead of trying to store waste for a hundred thousand years it's on the order of a hundred. Both of these are critically important for existing waste but also having an emission free en…

What about transport of the waste? Isn't (nearly?) all waste in the US stored on-site?

Good question, and believe it or not there have been small reactor concepts that failed for not considering that exact point.

Ours is designed to live in essentially a spent fuel cask. These things have been designed and tested to withstand being dropped from a thousand feet, being hit by missiles or airplanes. Seriously check out youtube there are crazy videos like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBp1FNceTTA

So from the time the reactor leaves our factory, to when it's put underground, till a decade later when it's taken out and shipped back for refueling, the fuel is locked in the reactor which is locked in this uber robust "cask".

This design is a fast reactor which means it can recycle fuel. So beyond its first decade installation we can recycle the fuel approximately 6 cycles before there is any amount of leftover that must be removed. That would be about 70 years, and the volume would be about the size of a basketball (fully glassified) and the lifetime would be on the order of a hundred years. That could be stored at our central facility or another facility, as it would not be weaponizable.

Re: Energy

#278
post #20

I suspect solar (including wind/biomass) + batteries is going to trounce fission reactors in the not terribly long term. If you think of finance in terms of latency/bandwidth (a model I use for lots of things), reactors are high latency - they're expensive and take a long time to set up. Meanwhile, solar/wind is heading toward dirt cheap and trivial to set up. Environmental impact is minimal, too. It doesn't require…

Solar is much cheaper and wind was already cheap, however the question, for both carbon and cost, is what is the price of the renewable intermittents with storage and backup. Batteries and storage in general have not had the step changes in cost and performance that solar has. Backup tends to be fossil plants. Ultimately energy density is a zero sum game for the environment and cost. In more detail:

On storage: Rough calculations show, if there were just enough Powerwalls to backup US peak demand for one hour it would require 10x the global annual mining production of lithium. And that's just one hour. And that doesn't include the electricity production.

On panel material required for production: It's generally estimated that US power, with good transmission, would require enough solar panels to cover the entire state of Massachusetts. Most non solar advocates think it's this square footage that's important. But of course this can largely be put on built land or in deserts so that is a relatively moot point. In fact, I want to get solar panels on my roof. However the real concern is what does this look like in terms of material mining? In immense panel production factories? (which isn't the greenest mfg process ever, likely one of the reasons it is largely done in China)

On mining and transporting material required: Mining is almost entirely powered by fossils, it has to be. And so is most transport. And so is recycling of metals. So the energy density of an energy source really is a zero sum game. If it takes a millionth the material for one source versus the other, that adds up.

On maintenance Then in maintenance, solar farms are truly "farms"- they require a lot of water to wash away dust to operate optimally. A states' worth of water is significant.

On lifetime/end of life First of all the lifetime of a panel is very optimistically 30 years/for a nuclear plant 60-80 years, and for the UPower fuel in particular can be used and recycled repeatedly for about 70+ years.

afterlife/recycling Then in recycling at end of life, and this is why I got so excited about nuclear as a somewhat hippie child growing up around oil companies in Oklahoma, solar is going to require a lot of energy (and fossil fuels or nuclear) to recycle, while nuclear can produce energy in recycling its fuel.

The main import, to me, is: what is the energy density of this energy, and if emitting, how much pollution? Coal is far more energy dense than wind, which is why humans evolved from windmills and wood to coal. But it's so polluting which is why we are all working towards better sources, and the greater energy density (nuclear on order of 2M x any other source) that's roughly 2M less trucks transporting, 2M less mining to do, 2M less recycling, etc. Thats more on the environment than pure cost like you are saying but the costs add up if the full life cycle is taken into account on both sides.

Re: Energy

#280
post #177

> By combining our years of experience in fusion, newly available electronics technologies, and a revolutionary design using cutting-edge physics, Helion is making a fusion engine 1,000 times smaller, over 500 times cheaper, and realizable 10 time faster than other projects. What?!? I certainly appreciate the ambition, but humanity has spent seven decades and at least hundreds of billions of dollars on this very same…

You're describing it like its the Yankees vs the Cleveland Indians, but it's not pure competition like that. The $5m startup is building on top of the $100b effort. Lots of science has been published, materials have been developed, dead ends have been discovered. The field of engineers gained much experience in those precious efforts. That doesn't decrease the probability of success, it increases it.

Sometimes it's not the size of the investment that dictates success. Often you need a good reset, with a smaller, better aligned team.

Everything that ever happened spent a long time not happening first. One must be super careful extrapolating inactivity.

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