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What's Really Warming the World?

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281–290 of 549 posts

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also question how we know the difference between nature/cycles and man-made pollution. Here is a good example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age "Several causes have been proposed: cyclical lows in solar radiation, heightened volcanic activity, changes in the ocean circulation, an inherent variability in global climate, or decreases in the human population." It seems we don't even know how the little ice…

I bring up some simple questions and I am immediately silenced. I guess I didn't realize HN was anti-science and anti-intellectual.

Paul,

I disagree with your points on climate science, but I do agree there's a bit of overreaction to what could be honest questions. However maybe this explains the response:

* Your questions do seem a little like assertions with question marks at the end, because they repeat some climate denial propaganda. In fairness, maybe that's all you've read (Suggestion: Don't get your climate science from mainstream media that is at all politicized (e.g., most UK newspapers, Fox, Huffington Post, etc.) It's a waste of time and misinformation. Try Nature (nature.com), Science (sciencemag.org), New Scientist, Scientific American; even the NY Times is better, though IME very incomplete).

* Many of the questions are easily answered with a little research, which make them look more like assertions and not like questions from someone interested in learning.

* Unfortunately, easily researched questions that repeat inflamatory propaganda don't add much to the conversation.

Perhaps on a less inflamatory subject, where others were less tired of propaganda and less concerned with it taking over the conversation, nobody would have downvoted you.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#282
post #223

My only problem is that the planet is over 4 billion years old and as this shows, we've been collecting climate data for a little over 100 years. The natural skeptic in me isn't ok with establishing a trend based on 1/40,000,000 of the available data, the sample size is simply too small. Am I completely off-base with this?

Its actually irrelevant whether this has happened before. Its happening now, impacting us, and maybe we can do something about it. The Pollyanna approach "Its natural" doesn't help us when cities are going underwater.

Maybe we can do something, but what? Do we build walls around the cities so they don't flood, or do we set up a scheme where developing countries pay a ransom to rich countries so they can continue to pollute, while rich countries starve their poor citizens of affordable energy while funnelling tax money into companies owned by rich citizens to do R&D work on energy sources that won't be viable on a large scale for decades, if ever?

I'm all for the walls, but the money that drives governments don't seem to agree.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a reasonable question. While I am not a climatologist... Anthropogenic evaporation is probably minuscule next to deviations in natural evaporation due to small changes in temperature. A single hurricane, for example, dumps more power (as heat) than all human power generation. Also, unlike CO2, I would also guess that atmospheric water probably reaches equilibrium much faster (half life ~1 year instead of ~30 yea…

There is basically no equilibrium condition here. If you mean that there is a more 'inelastic' equilibrium constant, then keep in mind that the concentration level governed by such a constant is dependent on rate in versus rate out, and there are certainly ongoing inputs of ag water. We've completely drained several seas and underground aquifers as a result of human activity in the last 50 years.

The amount of water used globally (approx 10^13 m^3) is only about 2.5% the total yearly evaporation off of the ocean (approx 4*10^14 m^3).

I suspect small changes in climate have a much greater effect on net evaporation.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#284
post #244
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're basically saying anything funded by government that might impact economics, and thus revenues, is biased. Right.. You do realize that you can be against taxing say, income and profits, but be for taxing carbon? I think quite a few economists would agree that you tax things that you want less of. A simplified carbon tax could be a boon to business.

> You're basically saying anything funded by government that might impact economics, and thus revenues, is biased. Right. While I don't see the now-deleted comment you're replying to, I do feel there is validity to the viewpoint that studies funded by the government can be biased in much the same way as studies funded by private companies. Government is not magically above tainting research with predisposition and pr…

The deleted comment said that the IPCC wants to introduce climate taxes; that the IPCC would get funded by those taxes, and thus there is a conflict of interest.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#285
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> CO2 is not strictly human emissions and to imply so is so dishonest is ridiculous. That was never implied. In fact, they made a point of comparing human driven emissions (which includes things like transportation and agriculture) to natural sources (eg volcanoes). > the primary co2 process is ocean to atmosphere exchange, the earth to atmosphere, and then to mammals respiratory activity Well, you're missing some st…

yet today we also have articles noting that "natural cooling" of the sun will not be sufficient to offset other sources of warming, the same sun this article here dismisses as having any real influence. this is the problem with the current climate science industry and don't mistake for a moment, this is an industry with great profits at stake for both government researchers and private industries. They never have a c…

"...don't mistake for a moment, this is an industry with great profits at stake for both government researchers and private industries."

Do you really think that there is a wide-reaching global conspiracy for environmentalists, researchers, and scientists to propagate a myth solely for their own well-being and job security? That no one would blow the whistle?

"Simply put, we don't know all the variables and those who declare we do are more ignorant than those who deny any effect."

Who has said "we know all the variables"? The current scientific consensus is: A) the climate is changing (you and everyone agrees) B) We're the most likely cause (most denialists and the IPCC conensus agree) ... and C) we have reason to believe that carbon dioxide / greenhouse gases are the leading contributor.

"There are hundreds if not thousands of scientists who all apparently have different views on what contributes, how much it does, and so on."

Wikipedia lists 27 scientists that have published studies claiming natural causes for climate change. (A very quick search shows that at least 2 of them were paid/funded by the Heartland Institute) A couple dozen others fall into "the concerns are overstated" or "we don't know the causes." On the other hand, the 2007 IPCC report had 619 contributors lending their support. A small amount of scientists working on different theories, or being paid to discredit others shouldn't negate a global scientific consensus.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#287

This article only serves to stroke the ego of people who already believe that CO2 emissions cause global warming. It does nothing for people who already deny it. Evidence, no matter how strong doesn't serve to change the nature of a man. People would rather bend the logic and the evidence to fit their convenient perception of reality. Which brings me to the question: "What can change a nature of a man?" Imminent dang…

Tut, tut. You are right of course, but you are still out of line here. Let me remind you in no uncertain terms that the correct meme is now 'climate change'.

To say 'global warming' confirms that the models predict warming. Of course, the models still DO continue to predict warming, however recent climate data suggests we are in a cooling phase.

We must be vigilant to maintain our thought controls in order to remain part of the group. You will accept that the science predicts warming in a world that is currently cooling. And to confirm to the group that you accept this contradiction, you must force yourself to always use the proper meme in your speech.

Thanks in advance,

The Group

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't call a paper whose lead author is a well-established denier with no scientific training ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Monckton,_3rd_Visc... ), and which is co-authored by a known practitioner of large-scale scientific fraud for pay ( http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Willie_Soon ) particularly reputable.

ad-hominem. Who cares who wrote it, what does it say?

Neither you nor the person you are responding to probably has the requisite qualifications to actually tell …

Judging something like this without relying on outside signals seems rather impossible and pointless if you are not, you know, an actual expert. No matter how much you want to believe you can be one about everything …

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#289
post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They did the math already. The amount of directly released human heat is a drop in the bucket.

I would love to see it if you have a source. EDIT Thank you.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Waste-heat-vs-greenhouse-war...

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#290
post #223

My only problem is that the planet is over 4 billion years old and as this shows, we've been collecting climate data for a little over 100 years. The natural skeptic in me isn't ok with establishing a trend based on 1/40,000,000 of the available data, the sample size is simply too small. Am I completely off-base with this?

You are absolutely correct.

It comes down to the evolutionary history of Earth throughout life's 4 billion year tenure on this planet. The climate has gone through EXTREME changes [1][2], including the Chicxulub impact, which radically impacted the atmosphere's composition and life on this planet. Yet, the biosphere has always adapted and life continued.

Assuming that mankind is destroying the biosphere at an unprecedented rate (we are), and burning hydrocarbons at an even faster rate (we are), are these two factors enough to turn the earth into a Mars-style wasteland, completely devoid of all life?

Based on the data I`ve linked below, it just doesn't seem plausible. We can use linear regression models of the atmosphere and show temperatures rising until life becomes impossible, but that is not how complex biospheres work.

In any case, climate science is definitely a worthy scientific discipline to study, but it is becoming akin to economics in the prediction department. As in, the principles are sound, but the predictions of the experts are laughably wrong on a regular basis, possibly due to the fierce politicization of this branch of science.

1. http://www.biocab.org/Geological_Timescale.jpg

2. http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/images/CO2History.h...

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