What's Really Warming the World? • Hacker News Board

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#161

Post by cholantesh » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:03 PM UTC

[deleted] wrote: post #152

hackuser wrote: post #122

This repeats some buried comments but I think it's worthwhile: I'm not a climate scientist, but in my experience the absolute most reliable, most time-efficient way to learn about climate change is the IPCC reports. I wonder if there is anything written in any other field that compares: http://www.ipcc.ch/ Specifically, if you are short on time, read the 'Summaries for Policymakers', written at the level and attentio…

[deleted]

The gist of this argument is that the IPCC's members, the schools that employ them, the governments of their constituent nations, the FAO, the UN, the mainstream news media, and all administrative and custodial staff of all of these organizations are perpetrating a conspiracy to push carbon taxes on the world. Presuming the absurd scale implied herein doesn't beggar belief, the fact that the combined power of all these people has proved insufficient in bringing 'the plan' to reality ought to.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#162

Post by nsxwolf » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:04 PM UTC

dnautics wrote: post #138

mcv wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A single storm isn't, but if it's part of a trend, something might be up.

2013 had no hurricanes, and 2014 was a very mild season. 2012 was a 'very active' season, but most of the hurricanes stayed out in the atlantic ocean.

Deniers get mocked for bringing up cold winters ("weather is not climate, you MORON!"), but warmists have no problem blaming every hurricane and tornado on global warming.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#163

Post by phkahler » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:04 PM UTC

Deforestation? They reject this because we replace forest with light reflecting materials which they claim causes slight cooling. Last time I checked, it's way cooler in a forest than standing in a parking lot. Nature uses the energy from sunlight to create biomass. Anything else either reflects it or turns it to heat.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#164

Post by o_nate » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:05 PM UTC

omalleyt wrote: post #154

jasonkester wrote: post #3

Cool visualization. It's worth keeping in mind that the modeled data lines up with reality because it's supposed to. That's how you calibrate your model, by making sure it fits reality. The real trick is to see how well your model extrapolates from the data you have out into the future. As in, if you feed it data up to, say, 1990, will it correctly spit out 2015 temperatures that fit the reality of 2015, or will it s…

This visualization is a multivariate linear regression with time trending variables...lol the entire thing is garbage, I could get a better R^2 than the 7 or so variables they used if instead I used variables to explain climate change like: number of gay marriages in the world, murders, abortions, etc...I don't recommend this, I'm just saying trended data can "say" anything

Um, no it's not. It's a physical model. Read the PDF they link to.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#165

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:06 PM UTC

[deleted] wrote: post #152

hackuser wrote: post #122

This repeats some buried comments but I think it's worthwhile: I'm not a climate scientist, but in my experience the absolute most reliable, most time-efficient way to learn about climate change is the IPCC reports. I wonder if there is anything written in any other field that compares: http://www.ipcc.ch/ Specifically, if you are short on time, read the 'Summaries for Policymakers', written at the level and attentio…

[deleted]

[deleted]

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#166

Post by phkahler » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:06 PM UTC

Notably absent is con-trails. The jury is still out, but there is strong evidence that they can have a significant effect. The rise of jet travel has also coincided with hydrocarbon use. Water vapor is also a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#167

Post by fexl » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:07 PM UTC

primroot wrote: post #126

fexl wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likely yes, but please be careful that the remedies do not cause more severe difficulties than the problem itself.

Implicit in this remark is the idea that all humans share roughly the same interests and concerns. As difficult conditions exacerbate conflicts the weight of interests is measured first in capital and then in violent prowess. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc2016e2-d320-11e4-9b0a-00144feab7...

Sorry, I can't click through to that article -- when I dismiss the pop-up, the tantalizing "Climate Shock" headline disappears.

I do say that all humans require energy to survive, and more efficient forms of energy require capital in the hands of innovators.

I'll be happy to read the article if you can give me a link that functions better for me.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#168

Post by nsxwolf » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:07 PM UTC

themartorana wrote: post #93

jimhefferon wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, my parents were rabid climate deniers, after they got cable and foolishly started watching Fox, porn for the ancient (but I digress..). Then Super Storm Sandy. Now when it is being discussed they sit silently. Personally, it doesn't seem to me that one storm is all that persuasive, from a statistical standpoint. But we are not talking about reason here.

This reminds me of Dick Cheney's stance on homosexuality. People will deny for myriad reasons, and are able to disassociate harm caused when that harm is borne by others. But the second it effects them? The tune changes quickly. We have deniers in our families. The reasons seem to be "I want to be salty" more than anything real. Edit: that said, I imagine most people behind Fox News and other right-wing news sources…

For every Dick Cheney there are probably a thousand parents who will ostracize or disown their gay children. And probably as many who will accept their children but don't change their views on homosexuality.

I'm not sure if the left means to praise Dick Cheney for changing his mind on homosexuality, or mock him for changing his mind because he's a right winger.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#169

Post by merpnderp » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:09 PM UTC

ocschwar wrote: post #153

natermer wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of the models have performed very well. You probably won't find a scorecard because it's embarrassing.

They've not performed well based on criteria chosen by global warming denialists. For example, you'd be hard pressed to find a climate scientist making any solid predictions about annual global temperature averages. You will, however, see predictions about decadal averages, and those have borne out.

Borne out? Compared to what? The RSS and UAH 6.0 lower troposphere predictions? What other measurements do we have that don't have uncertainty bands as large as the measurements?

And the zero trend from May 2015 extends back to 1996 for RSS and UAH 6.0.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#170

Post by bharath28 » Wed, Jun 24, 2015, 4:10 PM UTC

mangeletti wrote: post #141

bharath28 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't read the whole paper (where that graph came from), so my apologies if i am misstating anything. It appears that the paper is focused mostly on the forests in Eastern Canada. At first glance, I'd find the slope on that graph (last 500 years) very hard to believe if it were for all of planet earth.

I've updated my comment to add another chart. The chart was intended to reflect the relative rate of deforestation, but the second one does a better job, and is even more alarming.

Thanks! And alarming indeed.