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What's Really Warming the World?

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Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#81

Post by mikeash »

batou wrote: post #75
mikeash wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The experiment isn't controlled, but it's being performed. The experiment is, "Let's dump gigatons of excess CO2 into the atmosphere and see what happens!" So far, what happens is that global temperatures go up noticeably. What are you proposing we should do? Should we just ignore the whole thing until it's proven?

Not at all. I'm saying that we should reduce emissions. What could possibly be bad about that? Its what I'm not saying that is important. I don't proclaim an answer nor an idealism, merely cautious scientific thought that suggests the methodology needs to be considered. In any other field the lack of rigorous proofs would be laughed off the table.

So you agree with the conclusion that we should cut emissions, but you object to... what? The wording?

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#83

Post by macinjosh »

Please don't take this as a denial of climate change, it is an honest question. How do scientists learn the levels of ozone, aerosols, green house gases, and the other data points going so far back at a global scale? Is the data from before the latter half of the 20th century spotty? If so, why is it considered good enough to use in a context of scientific research where quality and correctness of data is paramount?

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#85

Post by at-fates-hands »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #36

This article only serves to stroke the ego of people who already believe that CO2 emissions cause global warming. It does nothing for people who already deny it. Evidence, no matter how strong doesn't serve to change the nature of a man. People would rather bend the logic and the evidence to fit their convenient perception of reality. Which brings me to the question: "What can change a nature of a man?" Imminent dang…

You also have to understand, with everything there is a spectrum. There are people no matter what you tell them, won't believe climate change exists, other simply say it's a cycle, just like we've had cooling and heating cycles since the dawn of time.

Also, it's hard for a lot of people to take climate change arguments seriously when you basically tell them, "Well, based on this model. . " So how do you take into effect climate cycles that go beyond recorded weather which started sometime in the 1700's? Real statistical data about the Earth just isn't available to make models very compelling. it doesn't help either when you have conflicting models. Some say we're actually in a cooling cycle, not a warming cycle:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GISSTemperature/gi...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/global-cooling-is-here/10783

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-h...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatecha...

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/cl...

Lastly, the thing which frustrates me to no end is most countries have been reducing their C02 emissions for years now. The real danger is not countries like the US who continue to try and reduce emissions and enforce strict EPA standards, it's countries like China and India who are doing little if anything to curb their emissions.

What can we do? Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#86

Post by crimsonalucard »

mcv wrote: post #77
jimhefferon wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, my parents were rabid climate deniers, after they got cable and foolishly started watching Fox, porn for the ancient (but I digress..). Then Super Storm Sandy. Now when it is being discussed they sit silently. Personally, it doesn't seem to me that one storm is all that persuasive, from a statistical standpoint. But we are not talking about reason here.

A single storm isn't, but if it's part of a trend, something might be up.

The interesting point here, I think is that statistical evidence aka a trend, didn't serve to convince them. I don't know their exact circumstance surrounding the storm but I would venture a guess that "great loss" was the motivating factor in this case.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#87

Post by hackuser »

tosseraccount wrote: post #19
jasonkester wrote: post #3

Cool visualization. It's worth keeping in mind that the modeled data lines up with reality because it's supposed to. That's how you calibrate your model, by making sure it fits reality. The real trick is to see how well your model extrapolates from the data you have out into the future. As in, if you feed it data up to, say, 1990, will it correctly spit out 2015 temperatures that fit the reality of 2015, or will it s…

Is there a scorecard for which models have performed well?

The IPCC, probably the best source overall for climate info, has in their reports visualizations showing predictions, and I think historical results, of multiple climate models. (Sorry but I don't have time now to find links and page numbers. Try the Summaries for Policy Makers.)

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Just reading their summaries, which are meticulously prepared and reviewed by hundreds of scientists, will make you more informed than 99.9% of the population, and more than most reading this thread.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#88

Post by primroot »

mcv wrote: post #61
crimsonalucard wrote: post #36

This article only serves to stroke the ego of people who already believe that CO2 emissions cause global warming. It does nothing for people who already deny it. Evidence, no matter how strong doesn't serve to change the nature of a man. People would rather bend the logic and the evidence to fit their convenient perception of reality. Which brings me to the question: "What can change a nature of a man?" Imminent dang…

> "What can change a nature of a man?" Wasn't that Regret? I really hope we can act before it comes to that.

https://xkcd.com/164/

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#90

Post by mcv »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #79
mcv wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "What can change a nature of a man?" Wasn't that Regret? I really hope we can act before it comes to that.

>Wasn't that Regret? I think the canon answer was 'belief', or more accurately, "Whatever you believe can change the nature of a man, can." Ravel actually accepted any answer.

Belief?! If that's true, the past 15 years of my life have been a lie! I honestly remembered regret as the correct answer.
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