SSD Prices in a Free Fall • Hacker News Board

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#261

Post by rgbrenner » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 5:23 AM UTC

genericuser wrote: post #136

rgbrenner wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

backblaze (who uses desktop hdds) says they paid $0.044/gb in sept 2011: https://www.backblaze.com/blog/farming-hard-drives-2-years-a... Today on newegg it's about $0.03/gb.

That statement neither disputes nor supports the statement you made it in reply to. The statement you were replying to was referring to the trend line. That is to say it was referring to the line representing the rate at which the price was changing, not the price itself. You would need significantly more than two data points to make an argument for or against that assertion. As you would need enough enough points to…

re-reading it, I agree with you. I missed the word "trendline" when I read it the first time.

I'm not able to find an up to date enough trendline to agree or disagree with his statement.

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#262

Post by Ecio78 » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 5:24 AM UTC

discardorama wrote: post #36

Cheapest 1 TB SSD on Amazon: $350 Cheapest 1 TB HDD on Amazon: $40 Expecting a 10x drop in prices in 1 year is ludicrous. Even if the prices follow a pseudo Moore's law and fall by half every 18 months, you're looking at at least 5 years before they reach parity. And in the meantimg HDDs would have gotten cheaper; so expect even more time for parity. In other words: ain't happenin' in 2016.

for an HP 3PAR Enterprise storage 2TB 7.2k SAS NL: list price 2.300€, discounted about 850€ 1.95TB SSD: list price 12k€

(sources: HP partner quote for the SAS disk, quick textchat with friend in HP for SSD)

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#263

Post by prutschman » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 5:24 AM UTC

ars wrote: post #231

derekp7 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know -- I just picked up a screw in LED bulb from Walmart for just over a couple bucks, about the same price as CFL. And I was surprised at how bright it was. Just wondering how long the electronics in it will last.

Those cheap LEDs have a CRI of around 80, you can get a CFL with that low of a CRI for under a dollar. The LED has no advantages over the CFL, just extra cost, with no benefit.

LEDs turn on instantly, CFLs take a moment and get slower as time goes by. If I break a CFL I'm potentially exposing myself and my child to mercury vapor, not so with LED. Those are both benefits I appreciate.

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#264

Post by codemac » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 5:51 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #89

codemac wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't count them out, just as much as disk drives were supposed to replace tape for how long now? I bet disks will get even more dense (think 20+ TiB), have better reliability when powered off, and be sold in pallets to large companies mostly. For the consumer market, disk drives are already pretty much dead.

It all really depends on the SSD curve. If SSDs continue their price decline and capacity increases as this article mentions, it'd be difficult for HDDs to compete. Tape costs you no power in storage, but HDDs do unless you're powering them down and spinning them back up (which causes significant wear on the motor). SSDs get you cheap storage and lower power consumption, negating both tape and HDDs simultaneously. TL…

> (which causes significant wear on the motor)

[citation needed]

Copan and many other companies did really well powering down drives.

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#265

Post by benjaminjackman » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 6:00 AM UTC

discardorama wrote: post #36

Cheapest 1 TB SSD on Amazon: $350 Cheapest 1 TB HDD on Amazon: $40 Expecting a 10x drop in prices in 1 year is ludicrous. Even if the prices follow a pseudo Moore's law and fall by half every 18 months, you're looking at at least 5 years before they reach parity. And in the meantimg HDDs would have gotten cheaper; so expect even more time for parity. In other words: ain't happenin' in 2016.

Why would prices follow Moore's law rather than the laws of supply and demand? If all of a sudden there is an immense supply of drives whose performance and capacity themselves don't follow Moore's law then prices certainly wouldn't either.

If suppliers can deliver hard drives that follow some cube version of Moore's law (temporarily, long term everything seems to S-Curve IMHO), then prices will fall dramatically, even in a time frame less than 5 years.

Are spinnies horse drawn carriages, and Solid States the start of different, new, less mechanically restricted jet age? I think we all know that answer to that question -- maaaybe ;)

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#266

Post by kreeben » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 6:39 AM UTC

anaolykarpov wrote: post #255

andybak wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most national ISPs Which nation are you talking about? I suppose I'd guess US but it would help if you said. I'm still getting uncapped broadband (albeit with vague TOS provisions) in the UK. I think the rest of Europe is probably similar. For the record - I'd like to move towards metered billing - but with a realistically low price per GB - not a punitive one based on profiting from people that don't have the know…

Move to Romania. We have uncapped 1Gbps for 15$/month

Please take care of your people instead of telling them to go to Sweden an beg for their daily bread. I wouldnt brag about anything Romanian at this point in time.

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#267

Post by com2kid » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 7:03 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #117

ChuckMcM wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, pretty much. The only bit of news is that SSDs can achieve hard drive densities with 3D NAND, but like the early calls for the demise of all lighting other than LED. That was 10 years ago, its getting closer now. I'm putting in LED can lights in my living room for example. So at some point ...

To your LED point, I'm unaware of anyone not putting LED if cost of electricity or labor is of any importance. Consumers may not have gotten the message yet, but anyone running the numbers is going LED or nothing at all (small exceptions for grow operations or theater lightening).

I just had some LED bulbs burn out ~9 months after purchase.

Any potential cost savings just became really hard to recoup. I'm what, 6-10 years out now to save a $30 or so?

Cheap incadecent gives great quality light. Expensive LEDs give good quality light. Cheap LEDs ruin sleep patterns. Race to the bottom (and a lack of consumer awareness or ability tonbuy high quality bulbs) means LEDs are going to end up causing quite a negative impact for a non-trivial number of people.

FWIW my HOA put in shiet blueish LEDs everywhere outside. The entire complex now looks like a zombified wasteland. Evidence that I need to attend more meetings.

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#268

Post by pacquiao882 » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 7:50 AM UTC

They are just getting rid of stock before NVMe M.2 SSD's go mainstream with 10x performance and lower production costs compared to AHCI SATA3 SSD's.

http://www.hardocp.com/article/2015/03/24/where_ssd_market_h...

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#269

Post by ars » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 8:01 AM UTC

prutschman wrote: post #263

ars wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those cheap LEDs have a CRI of around 80, you can get a CFL with that low of a CRI for under a dollar. The LED has no advantages over the CFL, just extra cost, with no benefit.

LEDs turn on instantly, CFLs take a moment and get slower as time goes by. If I break a CFL I'm potentially exposing myself and my child to mercury vapor, not so with LED. Those are both benefits I appreciate.

CFL's turn on instantly unless they are in freezing weather. If yours don't then get better ones - walmart has really good ones.

The mercury vapor in CFLs is not very dangerous, it's elemental mercury which is not especially toxic, you need continuous exposure over a long time for it to cause any problems. One CFL is not going to do anything bad. How many CFLs do you break anyway? I've never broken a hot one, only a cold one that fell of the shelf, and cold ones don't release any mercury at all.

Buying an LED is an easier sell these days since the price has gone down, and the brightness has gone up, but I hope you did not avoid CFLs before now - that would have been very shortsighted.

Re: SSD Prices in a Free Fall

#270

Post by onli » Tue, Jun 23, 2015, 8:07 AM UTC

madez wrote: post #207

timboslice wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just got a 250GB Samsung EVO SSD. Filled it up in a matter of weeks by installing some of my favorite games from Steam. I'm looking to add a 500GB to my build, but I should have STARTED with a 500GB.

This seems like a big waste. Why would you put games on a SSD?

You are right, it is a pity that you are downvoted.

Right now, you maybe put your favorite game on the SSD, not the whole steam library - and that is what gamers often recommend themselves. FPS don't get influenced by the HDD, only loading times, and those are normally not too high. Many new games have only two loading times: loading the game and then loading the save. Afterwards, everything is streamed, and a proper HDD is fast enough for that. And that is what the people responding to your comment here miss completely.

Using a SSD is for many games a waste.