Live data from Hacker News

Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

news.stanford.edu

51–60 of 89 posts

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In all honesty, the only time we should care about is the one in front of us. Is it possible there are "natural forces and cycles at work"? Sure, but throw your hands up and say "oh, it's possibly beyond our comprehension"? Good grief, no. We should try to comprehend everything, and human induced global warming is the best hypothesis fitting the available evidence. Of course there are other possibilities, but this is…

Respectfully, I think you are exaggerating the risks. This is probably not the place to debate AGW and climate change, but not only are there many reasons to doubt AGW, there are also points to be made in favor of global warming, such as increased crop yields and arable lands, more habitable land, etc. As usual, the question is one of balancing risks. It does not seem likely that, even if AGW occurs, it will prove ha…

>if we deny the developing world the use of fossil fuels, they are going to keep starving and living in poverty.

If fossil fuels are so vital to developing countries why are you wasting them on luxury goods? Surely you should be campaigning for massive reduction in fossil fuel use in developed countries (who can afford sustainable and nuclear power generation technologies).

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#52
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by small things? Is a butterfly a small thing? Is a billion butterflies also a "small thing"? It's not a question of fallacy--it's a question of judgment. Are humans "big enough" to have such a big effect on nature as a whole? This is the question that we have yet to answer for certain. Many people assume that we are more powerful than we have proven to be. There is a fallacy, though: that of confusi…

> It's not a question of fallacy--it's a question of judgment. Are humans "big enough" to have such a big effect on nature as a whole? This is the question that we have yet to answer for certain. Many people assume that we are more powerful than we have proven to be. Cod stocks collapsed because of over fishing. They recovered when we stopped fishing. Buffalo went near extinct when we killed most of them. The passeng…

I'm not being dishonest. Sure, humans have caused or nearly caused a few species to become extinct in certain places.

That is a far cry from causing mass extinction on a global scale.

We have also protected and repopulated some nearly extinct species.

Equating the two--that's dishonest at worst, and a difference in judgment at best. Like I said, it's a question of judgment.

What is definitely dishonest is to claim that all sea life will die in ten years, leaving the shores covered with dead fish; or claim that the entire UK will starve to death; and then, when proven wrong by reality, say, "Well, they're having problems, aren't they? See? I wasn't really wrong."

And with such a track record, it seems ridiculous for anyone to believe him when he claims we are now causing mass extinctions on a global scale. How can you take him seriously?

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by small things? Is a butterfly a small thing? Is a billion butterflies also a "small thing"? It's not a question of fallacy--it's a question of judgment. Are humans "big enough" to have such a big effect on nature as a whole? This is the question that we have yet to answer for certain. Many people assume that we are more powerful than we have proven to be. There is a fallacy, though: that of confusi…

>Are humans "big enough" to have such a big effect on nature as a whole? This is the question that we have yet to answer for certain. Yes. We have answer that pretty conclusively. Humans are capable of and have carried out global scale changes to the biosphere. >What is indeed bizarre is to see people accusing humans of causing mass events that have happened for millions of years without human intervention. Mass exti…

> Mass extinction events have not been happening continuously for millions of years. Perhaps that is the cause of your confusion.

I did not say that. You are putting words in my mouth again.

The point is that mass extinctions have happened multiple times without any human intervention.

I call troll.

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#54
post #13
post #10

The hard data will be more objectively assessed if coming from someone other than Paul Ehrlich: In the 1970’s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” and “[our children] will inherit a totally different world, a world in which the standards, politics, and economics of the 1960’s are dead.”

He was wrong, but about 21,000 people die each day from hunger or hunger related causes. That's 7.6m per year, about 115m in the 21st century. Nearly one in five children under the age of five dies from diarrhea related illnesses. And that's easilly and cheaply treated (50 US cents of oral rehydration salts).

Not because we can't grow enough food. Famine and hunger is a political problem, not a crop yield problem.

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respectfully, I think you are exaggerating the risks. This is probably not the place to debate AGW and climate change, but not only are there many reasons to doubt AGW, there are also points to be made in favor of global warming, such as increased crop yields and arable lands, more habitable land, etc. As usual, the question is one of balancing risks. It does not seem likely that, even if AGW occurs, it will prove ha…

I don't hold a strong opinion about global warming and other doomsday theories, with which we are bombareded every day, but population control has crossed my mind and I can't seem to find a reasonable con. In an ecosystem, nature has its ways to control an overgrown population of one species or another. We humans are not as reliant on nature as other species, so there is no way for the balance to be preserved natural…

What is so bad about it? Are you kidding me? Why don't you talk to some people in China about that, people whose children die and are denied the right to have more.

Why don't you think about corrupt, evil governments that want to keep the population a manageable size so they can remain in power and continue exploiting people.

I don't know where you are from, but where I come from, we value freedom and the right to self-determination. Trying to control other people--to prevent them from doing normal, natural things like having families--is wrong.

There is no shortage of food, nor of living space, on this planet. The problems are getting the food and the people to the right places. The solution to those problems is not to sterilize people--medically or legally--against their will. The only reason to do that is to keep certain people in power so they can continue to exploit everyone else. And that is evil.

So that is what is so bad about it.

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#56
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> mass extinctions happened already five times, and humans had nothing to do with those. But now, when it supposedly happens for a sixth time, it's our fault. Mass extinctions happen for different reasons. What you're saying is tantamount to: "well, it was a cataclysmic volcano ice age that got us last time, so this asteroid could not possibly be dangerous." > All these evil humans, farming and logging and settling,…

> I don't think that's true or fair, HN is a mix really. The problem is that your statements about extinction are objectively wrong. Being scientifically literate is not necessarily a left wing trait (however, I do make this assertion as a foreign outsider looking in, so I could be wrong). Sure it's a mix, but it seems predominantly left to me. I may be wrong, but I don't think it's possible to prove it either way. H…

> Sure it's a mix, but it seems predominantly left to me. I may be wrong, but I don't think it's possible to prove it either way.

Personally, I think opinions that match ideologies you're really opposed to probably leave a bigger impression than the ones you agree with. It's easy to come to the conclusion that you're in the minority when you're really not. I believe there are a lot of social conservatives on HN, but the same people are not necessarily technologically or scientifically conservative. This doesn't fall cleanly into left and right by US standards, but I think it's a reasonable model of HN majority predisposition.

> No, you're (probably unintentionally) misrepresenting my point.

I thought I was taking it as literally as possible, and after reading the response I still believe I understood the core intent correctly. When you said "But now, when it supposedly happens for a sixth time, it's our fault.", I got the impression that you're asserting the only reason why we correlate extinctions with human activity is because we want to blame humans.

However, what's actually going on is more a collection of thousands of observations about these events, made on a case by case basis. For example, these are observations about human settlements impacting wildlife. In another area, they might be data about the results of us restructuring local flora and fauna. Or they might be analytical results pointing to correlations between human-induced contamination of water bodies and changes in the biome that characteristically follow it. It's literally a mass of thousands of data points.

> I disagree--evil is involved, at small and large scales. [...] they are not seeking the truth, but sticking with lies, which is evil.

You did originally use the word evil in an entirely different context, which I was responding to.

> And AGW/climate-change is a powerful vehicle to effect policy change for those in power to preserve and increase their power.

A lot of groups are proclaiming that the opposing organizations have money and power on their side. The environmental protection movement makes the same assertion, only about letting industry and agriculture go unchecked.

But let's move away from political formulas now. The reality of the fact is that it actually matters very little whether and how often the Anthropocene is publicly declared. We're going to continue on the path we're already on. There will be some continued wide-scale destruction, and a lot of it will not be happening in western countries. But we'll also ramp up initiatives to try and lessen our environmental impact, both to preserve biodiversity for its own sake, but also to improve our own quality of life.

You say that you believe any such efforts will harm people, but to be honest I find that line of reasoning difficult to follow, especially considering the fact that we're mortally dependent on the integrity of our biosphere and that the measures we're putting in place are generally very modest.

None of this will change because some scientists make sensationalistic claims in the media. The article we're talking about is a total yawner, to be honest. Most scientific people already know we're witnessing a huge extinction event, no matter how we actually label it. Talking about that label is the least interesting thing we can do with the observations we made.

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if trying to stop a process--which we only have a 10% chance of stopping--would have a 100% chance of harming people? Is definitely harming people "playing it safe"?

Can you clarify what you mean by "harm"? I think it's a judgment call as to whether we should proceed with the method to stop the extinction. For example, if it means sterilizing all humans, I would say don't do it. If it means everybody has to be vegetarian, I would say do it. If it means economic harm, then it would depend on the extent and the available measures to mitigate it.

What I mean by harm is things like enacting economic policies which would do things like prevent the developing world from developing, resulting in people remaining in poverty. It's easy for healthy, happy, relatively wealthy people to say that we should cut emissions (cf. DiCaprio). But reality is that, if those people practiced what they preach, they'd be living in log cabins--without solar panels.

And I certainly take issue with your vegetarian example. What other people eat is none of your business. It sounds almost funny, but that would be food fascism--is there any other word for it? Do you really want some bureaucrat sitting behind a desk writing memos telling you what you are and are not allowed to eat? How can you think that's a good idea? The more governments try to control people, the more people are harmed. Doesn't history make this obvious? Why do people seem to think, "Yeah, but we can get it right This Time"?

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#58
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[deleted]

> I assume you’ve never studied biology? I assume you've never studied statistics? Or shouldn't you know that correlation does not equal causation? See, I can make unfounded assumptions too. > Or maybe you wouldn’t care if humans go extinct? You are full of assumptions, aren't you? It's just amazing how people think we are so powerful and can affect nature to such an extent. But it's like an ant trying to trip an ele…

> But it's like an ant trying to trip an elephant.

I think this is the wrong way to look at this. It's not about "are we powerful enough" or "are we big enough" it's not about size or power.

Even very small insignificant things can and do have quite a large impact. It's more about impacting a system in a way it's ill equipped to compensate for.

One of the more recent theories of the cause of the worst extinction level event is a particular methane producing microbe. Something far less powerful than a human is, yet a potential cause of an extinction level event that dwarfed the one that killed off the dinosaurs.

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#59
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want to tell me why you think my comment was downvoted, go ahead. If you don't, don't. I'm not going to play some kind of "If you ask me, I will tell you. Please ask me so I can tell you!" game. My impression is that HN's readership is mostly left-leaning. Not necessarily pro-communist, but the left does also lean toward communist and socialist ideas. If you disagree with one of those assertions, feel free to…

It's the same on reddit. Large corporations (who are running the show) are themselves putting out this propaganda. Many are right to point out the "Large Corporations" as part of the problem. However, they don't see the greater pattern. As our world becomes ever-more automated, the labour market requires less human workforce. Once the "top" of society have completely automated their profit making, they no longer have…

> As our world becomes ever-more automated, the labour market requires less human workforce. Once the "top" of society have completely automated their profit making, they no longer have a use for the rest of humanity. Hence the propaganda of "You lot are the problem" and everyone is like "oh yes, we're the problem"

That may very well be the elephant in the room. In all the talks about AGW/climate change, biodiversity, etc, I've never seen anyone talk about the issue of increasing automation and unemployment, and how they may be connected politically.

If increasing automation results in increasing unemployment, that could result in increasing social unrest. What better way to prevent that than by reducing the population. And what better way to do that than by convincing people that we're killing the planet and need to stop having babies.

I don't know about grand conspiracies, but as far as emergent behaviors, it's very interesting.

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#60
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I assume you’ve never studied biology? I assume you've never studied statistics? Or shouldn't you know that correlation does not equal causation? See, I can make unfounded assumptions too. > Or maybe you wouldn’t care if humans go extinct? You are full of assumptions, aren't you? It's just amazing how people think we are so powerful and can affect nature to such an extent. But it's like an ant trying to trip an ele…

> But it's like an ant trying to trip an elephant. I think this is the wrong way to look at this. It's not about "are we powerful enough" or "are we big enough" it's not about size or power. Even very small insignificant things can and do have quite a large impact. It's more about impacting a system in a way it's ill equipped to compensate for. One of the more recent theories of the cause of the worst extinction leve…

Frankly, I think the earth's ecosystems are incredibly robust and able to compensate for more than we can imagine.

Regarding the "farting bacteria" theory (I'm sorry, I couldn't resist), hey, who knows, maybe that happened. But it's surely a stretch to say that it probably did. And even if it did, look at the incredible biodiversity that came to exist afterward! Why are we (or some people) so worried?

Post reply on HN