Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here • Hacker News Board

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#11

Post by alphapapa » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:26 AM UTC

[deleted] wrote: post #8

alphapapa wrote: post #2

> people are precipitating "a global spasm of biodiversity loss." Nevermind that, according to them, mass extinctions happened already five times, and humans had nothing to do with those. But now, when it supposedly happens for a sixth time, it's our fault. > To history's steady drumbeat, a human population growing in numbers, per capita consumption and economic inequity has altered or destroyed natural habitats. The…

[deleted]

> I assume you’ve never studied biology?

I assume you've never studied statistics? Or shouldn't you know that correlation does not equal causation? See, I can make unfounded assumptions too.

> Or maybe you wouldn’t care if humans go extinct?

You are full of assumptions, aren't you?

It's just amazing how people think we are so powerful and can affect nature to such an extent. But it's like an ant trying to trip an elephant. But if the elephant seems to be tripping and there's an ant near his foot, it must be the ant's fault...

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#12

Post by cactusface » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:27 AM UTC

[deleted] wrote: post #8

alphapapa wrote: post #2

> people are precipitating "a global spasm of biodiversity loss." Nevermind that, according to them, mass extinctions happened already five times, and humans had nothing to do with those. But now, when it supposedly happens for a sixth time, it's our fault. > To history's steady drumbeat, a human population growing in numbers, per capita consumption and economic inequity has altered or destroyed natural habitats. The…

[deleted]

> If one is happening within 200 years of the advent of the industrial revolution, the cause is not exactly a mystery.

Lots of things happened within 200 years of the advent of the industrial revolution. Correlation is necessary but not sufficient to show causation. To be clear, I believe humans have caused this problem, but how is it even possible to claim scientific knowledge of it? Where is your control experiment?

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#13

Post by DanBC » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:31 AM UTC

vixen99 wrote: post #10

The hard data will be more objectively assessed if coming from someone other than Paul Ehrlich: In the 1970’s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” and “[our children] will inherit a totally different world, a world in which the standards, politics, and economics of the 1960’s are dead.”

He was wrong, but about 21,000 people die each day from hunger or hunger related causes.

That's 7.6m per year, about 115m in the 21st century.

Nearly one in five children under the age of five dies from diarrhea related illnesses. And that's easilly and cheaply treated (50 US cents of oral rehydration salts).

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#14

Post by alphapapa » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:31 AM UTC

vixen99 wrote: post #10

The hard data will be more objectively assessed if coming from someone other than Paul Ehrlich: In the 1970’s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” and “[our children] will inherit a totally different world, a world in which the standards, politics, and economics of the 1960’s are dead.”

It's way worse--or funnier--than that. From Wikipedia:

"""On the first Earth Day in 1970, he warned that "[i]n ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish."[5] In a 1971 speech, he predicted that: "By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people." "If I were a gambler" Professor Ehrlich concluded before boarding his plane, " I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."[5] When this scenario did not come to pass, he responded that "When you predict the future, you get things wrong. How wrong is another question. I would have lost if I had had taken the bet. However, if you look closely at England, what can I tell you? They're having all kinds of problems, just like everybody else."""

That last bit is all he should have said: that people and places will be having problems, just like everyone else, just like has always been the case, just like always will be.

Why are people still paying attention to anything he says?

"...understand something...salary...depends on it...", you know how it goes.

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#15

Post by glogla » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:32 AM UTC

vixen99 wrote: post #10

The hard data will be more objectively assessed if coming from someone other than Paul Ehrlich: In the 1970’s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” and “[our children] will inherit a totally different world, a world in which the standards, politics, and economics of the 1960’s are dead.”

Well, he was right on the second part, and theer were quite some famines in the second half of 20th century - though not in such a scale.

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#16

Post by tincholio » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:33 AM UTC

codecamper wrote: post #5

People, cows, horses, sheep, pigs, dogs, cats. Corn, wheat, rice. What else do you need? I've been out driving across Europe for the past year. What strikes you about Europe is that almost every square meter of it is man controlled. The most wildlife they have are a few deer and wild boar. Even squirrels are rare.

You should maybe drive to the Nordic countries...

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#17

Post by alphapapa » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:34 AM UTC

DanBC wrote: post #13

vixen99 wrote: post #10

The hard data will be more objectively assessed if coming from someone other than Paul Ehrlich: In the 1970’s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” and “[our children] will inherit a totally different world, a world in which the standards, politics, and economics of the 1960’s are dead.”

He was wrong, but about 21,000 people die each day from hunger or hunger related causes. That's 7.6m per year, about 115m in the 21st century. Nearly one in five children under the age of five dies from diarrhea related illnesses. And that's easilly and cheaply treated (50 US cents of oral rehydration salts).

What does any of that have to do with the fact that he was wrong? That's the point: he was completely and absurdly wrong. "Chicken Little" doesn't begin to describe it.

Yes, people suffer from hunger. That's been a problem for all of human history. Hopefully someday it will be "solved," but that's not likely to happen as long as some people are evil and want to control other people. If we can't stop shooting each other and beheading each other and blowing up each other, what makes us think we can stop each other from starving?

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#18

Post by DanBC » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:35 AM UTC

alphapapa wrote: post #9

DanBC wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you want to know why you're getting downvotes?

According to HN theory, your post should be downvoted. It doesn't add anything to the discussion. The downvotes are no surprise. That's what one gets for expressing an unpopular opinion. It's disappointing, though, for people to downvote instead of responding with counter-arguments. But, again, no surprise.

I'm asking a genuine question!

Do you want to know why people are downvoting you, or are you just ranting about pro-communists trying to squash your opinion?

I mean, don't you think the downvotes are because you say ridiculous nonsense like HN is heavily left leaning and has enough pro-communists to down vote your posts? (Because that requires not just enough Reds to down vote but a lack of non-Reds to supply corrective upvotes).

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#19

Post by alphapapa » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:38 AM UTC

glogla wrote: post #15

vixen99 wrote: post #10

The hard data will be more objectively assessed if coming from someone other than Paul Ehrlich: In the 1970’s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” and “[our children] will inherit a totally different world, a world in which the standards, politics, and economics of the 1960’s are dead.”

Well, he was right on the second part, and theer were quite some famines in the second half of 20th century - though not in such a scale.

"Everyone's going to starve!"

"Well, some people starved. But he was right about people starving."

Is there any time in history in which no one in the world suffered from hunger?

Re: Stanford researcher declares that the sixth mass extinction is here

#20

Post by ealexhudson » Sat, Jun 20, 2015, 9:40 AM UTC

alphapapa wrote: post #4

ealexhudson wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But now, when it supposedly happens for a sixth time, it's our fault. Well, current thinking is that the dinosaurs went extinct when a meteorite hit the earth. Absent a large rock or other large-scale disaster, the rate of species disappearing really does need explanation.

What about the other four times? Is it not possible that there are natural forces and cycles at work, far larger than we can comprehend or control? The climate is our fault, the species are our fault--everything is humanity's fault, clearly. I guess we should all go live on the asteroids where there's nothing but rock. But then we'd be guilty of ruining a perfectly good asteroid belt... So I guess the "greenest" solu…

In all honesty, the only time we should care about is the one in front of us. Is it possible there are "natural forces and cycles at work"? Sure, but throw your hands up and say "oh, it's possibly beyond our comprehension"? Good grief, no. We should try to comprehend everything, and human induced global warming is the best hypothesis fitting the available evidence.

Of course there are other possibilities, but this is such an important question. Should we sit and wait for even more extensive proof that we're causing the problem? I guess we could go to our graves in the certain knowledge that we were right; I'd prefer the scenario where we try our best to avert the extinction of the species, even if it means being wrong a few times.