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Can China Be Contained?

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Re: Can China Be Contained?

#11

Post by qiqing »

This part makes my stomach turn:

The West has been in this position before. Optimism about the prospects of transforming an ancient civilization through engagement, followed by deep disillusion, has been the pattern ever since early Jesuit missionaries sought to convert the Chinese to Christianity. Those envoys adopted the gowns of the Mandarin class, grew long beards and even couched their gospel message in Confucian terms to make it more palatable. The 17th-century German priest Adam Schall got as far as becoming the chief astronomer of the Qing dynasty. But he fell from favor, and the Jesuits were later expelled.

More like disillusioned with "the West." The lesson learned on the other side (which took a really long time with wars, revolutions, and capitalist reforms to un-learn) is to not trust 'the West' because they'll try to hook your citizens on opium while trying to convert you to their religion. And if you ban opium and deport opium dealers, they'll kidnap your emperor, start a war, and burn/loot your ancient civilization.

What the author of the article seems to forget is that there are elderly people alive today who lived through that. My grandfather was sold into indentured servitude because of his parents' opium habit.

Moreover, for a nation with China's current levels of import/export and the rate at which cargo ships get attacked by pirates (as they go around Somalia to reach the Mediterranean), what's wrong with building up a navy? That's reducing dependence on local infrastructure and has got nothing to do with the U.S.

Re: Can China Be Contained?

#12

Post by Animats »

Can China be contained? No, because China has finally figured out how to make their country work.

Russia never worked very well. It didn't work under the tsars, it made some progress under communism but never caught up, it regressed when the USSR broke up and Russia tried capitalism (deaths and poverty rose a lot), the oligarch era didn't help, and it's not doing that great as a semi-dictatorship. Containing the USSR worked because nobody wanted the USSR in charge.

China, on the other hand, has a system which is moving forward rapidly. It took them a long time to find something that worked. They had their disasters, such as the "Great Leap Forward", under Mao. Now, though, the country is doing a lot of things right. The government is unapologetically authoritarian, but not stupid. As long as the government can keep the standard of living going up, it can stay in power.

China's foreign policy is another matter. The government would like to dominate Asia. Taiwan remains an annoyance, but it's more like Cuba being an annoyance to the US, not a real problem for China. The countries in the area spend a lot of time and effort fussing over minor islands, but that's not likely to lead to a major war.

China is gradually building up a blue-water navy. With the amount of shipping China has, that makes sense for them. China has a lot of economic interests outside China now, and wants to be able to protect them. Economic power, not military power, leads the way.

It all depends on whether China can maintain its growth rate.

Re: Can China Be Contained?

#13

Post by comrade1 »

maguirre wrote: post #9
fown9 wrote: post #8

China has an authoritarian government that produces pollution that threatens the entire world, uses the great firewall to attack tech companies in other countries, prints up to 282% of GDP [1] in order to buy their way into other countries real estate and companies, ignores human rights and free speech, and supports dictators in Russia and Africa. If China gets anymore powerful, the world is doomed. We need to curb c…

I don't know if you realize it or maybe the sarcasm is lost in this medium. However many of the things you just said about China, with the exception of being an authoritarian government, could also be said about the US.

It's even worse than that. The u.s. has been in constant warfare for the last 25 years and have killed ~600,000 people in that time.

What countries have the Chinese been bombing, killing in that time?

The u.s. is fighting an ideological war while the Chinese are fighting an economic war. The u.s. doesn't care if they wipe out a population as long as they defeat their ideas, while the chinese want to develop economic ties.

I don't know what more to say. The u.s. will lose if they don't change their thoughts.

Re: Can China Be Contained?

#14

Post by fown9 »

maguirre wrote: post #9
fown9 wrote: post #8

China has an authoritarian government that produces pollution that threatens the entire world, uses the great firewall to attack tech companies in other countries, prints up to 282% of GDP [1] in order to buy their way into other countries real estate and companies, ignores human rights and free speech, and supports dictators in Russia and Africa. If China gets anymore powerful, the world is doomed. We need to curb c…

I don't know if you realize it or maybe the sarcasm is lost in this medium. However many of the things you just said about China, with the exception of being an authoritarian government, could also be said about the US.

You can't be serious either; an authoritarian government is no way the same as a democracy. There are forced disapperances [1], outright censorship [2], state enrichment vs individuals [3], and on and on. US has courts and 3 separate branches of government and elections and debates. You can be cynical, sure, if the democracy isn't working well, but we still have a democracy. Do you honestly think a government controlled by a small secretive group of old men is better than elected government?

[1] https://news.vice.com/article/forced-disappearances-brutalit... [2] http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=4707107 [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_State-owned_enterprise...

Re: Can China Be Contained?

#15

Post by curiously »

"watching the administration of President Xi Jinping crack down hard on internal dissent while challenging the U.S. for leadership in Asia"

but that's exactly Xi Jinping's motive. People watching and making their own conclusions as long as its coming from the citizens. To Chinese public, Xi looks like a straightshooter, standing up for justice and vying for the attention of united states.

In reality, the outcome is increased internal support for Xi. The foreign policy component is a paper tiger. China has no desire or the capability to enter a military conflict with United States. No other countries can seriously oppose United States in a conventional warfare, even if they all got together and decided to attack it.

So China can be contained as long as it rejects democracy and run by a central power. This won't last long however. We are already seeing the CCP is faltering. When you live by the gun you die by the gun. Such is power in a allocated and dictated hierarchy. The challenge for China is to determine at which point do you introduce a democracy. Too soon or too late will both divide the country.

Re: Can China Be Contained?

#16

Post by curiously »

Animats wrote: post #12

Can China be contained? No, because China has finally figured out how to make their country work. Russia never worked very well. It didn't work under the tsars, it made some progress under communism but never caught up, it regressed when the USSR broke up and Russia tried capitalism (deaths and poverty rose a lot), the oligarch era didn't help, and it's not doing that great as a semi-dictatorship. Containing the USSR…

I don't think Chinese navy is much of a concern or blue water for that matter. What good is it when the only countries letting you use their port is on a different part of the ocean?

United States is a true naval and aerial super power. It has air and naval ports all over the world surrounding Russia & China.

To walk, you need to crawl first. Just because you built an air craft carrier on a shitty soviet era ship doesn't mean you can flaunt it without seriously risking an international embarassment.

Re: Can China Be Contained?

#17

Post by curiously »

maguirre wrote: post #9
fown9 wrote: post #8

China has an authoritarian government that produces pollution that threatens the entire world, uses the great firewall to attack tech companies in other countries, prints up to 282% of GDP [1] in order to buy their way into other countries real estate and companies, ignores human rights and free speech, and supports dictators in Russia and Africa. If China gets anymore powerful, the world is doomed. We need to curb c…

I don't know if you realize it or maybe the sarcasm is lost in this medium. However many of the things you just said about China, with the exception of being an authoritarian government, could also be said about the US.

I would rather have US as an authoritarian government than China. I mean do you see how China treats it's own people? It's fucking horrid. the 500 mil Chinese pulled out of poverty line is classic propaganda CCP would love to have you spewing.

Re: Can China Be Contained?

#18

Post by curiously »

ffn wrote: post #6

I don't know how much truth there is to this, but from the point of view of the several hundred Chinese netizens I know, a lot of China's current international policy decisions are arising out of desperation. For the past couple of decades, China has experience about 10% growth to its economy per year which has led to a wealth gap that makes ours look small. While the tide was rising, I suppose the average Chinese ci…

I don't know why you were downvoted but you've hit a lot of points which is fairly correct to assume.

Given that core East Asian familial, I'm not surprised by the tremendous societal and materialistic pressure on men of East Asian descent. Seriously....places like Korea and China men are regarded as just...fucking money making machine and nothing more.

Downturn of Chinese economy is a serious threat to the stability of the regime. The Chinese Dream or Zhonguo Meng, is uniting force. Everyone is out chasing money. It's like a giant ponzi scheme with someone on the other end always getting fucked while enriching those before it. When the flow of money stops so do these societal hierarchies built on money and power (easily purchasable with money in China), and suddenly 500 million middle class citizens who wants to stay that way become a very big force.

Re: Can China Be Contained?

#19

Post by sangnoir »

curiously wrote: post #15

"watching the administration of President Xi Jinping crack down hard on internal dissent while challenging the U.S. for leadership in Asia" but that's exactly Xi Jinping's motive. People watching and making their own conclusions as long as its coming from the citizens. To Chinese public, Xi looks like a straightshooter, standing up for justice and vying for the attention of united states. In reality, the outcome is i…

Empires rise and fall. The British empire at its zenith was impressive as well and was almost unchallenged. Military supremacy follows economic development.

I'm curious how the next 100 years will turn out (I'll experience 60+ of those, if I'm lucky), considering the following:

- the shift in American demographics (how long will the slightly right-of-center politics hold? To which side of the spectrum will it shift?)

- if China manages to sustain it's growth rate. Superpower status seems guaranteed at this point

- how unified will Europe be? what happens to Nato

Re: Can China Be Contained?

#20

Post by EdwardDiego »

qiqing wrote: post #11

This part makes my stomach turn: The West has been in this position before. Optimism about the prospects of transforming an ancient civilization through engagement, followed by deep disillusion, has been the pattern ever since early Jesuit missionaries sought to convert the Chinese to Christianity. Those envoys adopted the gowns of the Mandarin class, grew long beards and even couched their gospel message in Confucia…

> what's wrong with building up a navy?

Ask Taiwan and the Philippines how they feel about that.

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