NASA releases detailed global climate change projections • Hacker News Board

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#81

Post by kbutler » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:04 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #75

guelo wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A paper just came out in the journal Science that says there was no pause. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/201...

The key takeaway: > Noting that “buoy data have been proven to be more accurate than ship data,” the new study applies a new “bias correction” to address the difference between them.

..by adding a correction to the more accurate buoy data, generating a combined dataset that does not match trends in the satellite data, gold-standard terrestrial data, balloon data, or oceanic temperature data.

It also reduces the long-term temperature trend to the pre-1950 trend (i.e., pre-anthropogenic trend).

This is a paper that requires a significant degree of corroboration rather than simple endorsement because of its publication.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#82

Post by mrfusion » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:04 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #74

RutZap wrote: post #2

Would be great to see a nice visualisation tool built on top of OpenStreetMaps or something like that which allows you to see the predicted temperatures for a given location though time. Sadly this is way over my capabilities, also a 11 TB dataset is not easy to work with :(

Would you be open to Kickstarting this project if the resulting repo was public/open source on Github? EDIT: I should be clear. I would not be writing the code. I'd do the legwork to find someone (and pay them) who is familiar working with OSM to process the data, create the dataset, and build a javascript frontend to visualize it. The result would be open source. I would accept no funds whatsoever for this. I don't…

Sounds great. Are you offering to do it? I'll contribute.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#83

Post by chrismarlow9 » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:05 PM UTC

I recall reading about an investing company making a pretty penny by using data like this to forecast the growth of certain crops.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#84

Post by jchrisa » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:05 PM UTC

julienchastang wrote: post #52

Several comments in this thread mention visualization. These data can be easily visualized with the Unidata IDV [1] (same ppl that make THREDDS). For those interested, go to the IDV dashboard, "Data Choosers" tab and enter http://dataserver3.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds/catalog/bypass/NEX-... for the catalog. At that point you can browse the dataset, add the data as a data source, subset it (serverside), and visualize it. I…

I just want a single image that tells me the expected better/worse degree of change in suitability for agriculture and habitation. Maybe red would mean a lot worse than today, and green would mean a lot better. An absolute image (of today's climate) would help make sense of the deltas also.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#85

Post by mrfusion » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:06 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #74

RutZap wrote: post #2

Would be great to see a nice visualisation tool built on top of OpenStreetMaps or something like that which allows you to see the predicted temperatures for a given location though time. Sadly this is way over my capabilities, also a 11 TB dataset is not easy to work with :(

Would you be open to Kickstarting this project if the resulting repo was public/open source on Github? EDIT: I should be clear. I would not be writing the code. I'd do the legwork to find someone (and pay them) who is familiar working with OSM to process the data, create the dataset, and build a javascript frontend to visualize it. The result would be open source. I would accept no funds whatsoever for this. I don't…

In fact, I don't think there's even a way to get historic temperature by day/location anywhere. That would be a useful thing to add, just the ability to down small subsets of the data.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#86

Post by wang_li » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:11 PM UTC

WalterGR wrote: post #21

RutZap wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think anybody managed to download the whole set so far .

NASA has it already. Do they not want to be in the business of interpreting climate data? Or is it too soon even for them?

NASA seems like the wrong agency to be doing this kind of work. NOAA would be more appropriate.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#87

Post by jldungan » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:14 PM UTC

For some helpful visualizations of these data, check out: climateinternational.org

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#88

Post by jldungan » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:14 PM UTC

For some helpful visualizations of these data, check out http://climateinternational.org

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#89

Post by scarmig » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:24 PM UTC

GFK_of_xmaspast wrote: post #80

scarmig wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would be very interesting is for ESR to publish his own predictions, as he feigns expertise. Or, hell, any global warming denialist to publish predictions at all, or build any model at all beyond their day jobs of quote mining and writing clever PR releases that prey on the public's scientific illiteracy and fossil fuel barons' desire to violate other people's lives and properties with untrammeled carbon polluti…

You shouldn't encourage ESR to produce content.

He can certainly produce good content when he wants to. It's just when you give him the chance, his ideological blinders make him go wild. Forcing him to make concrete predictions and disciplining him with empiricism would move his content from dealing with fantasies in his head to the actual existing world.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#90

Post by Havoc » Wed, Jun 10, 2015, 6:31 PM UTC

fixermark wrote: post #78

tonec wrote: post #24

The entire dataset is 12TB because it contains _daily_ global 25x25km maps for all years between 1950-2099 probably for a bunch of different variables. You don't need to download the entire thing to get the gist of it, although it probably would have helped if they also delivered a digest version with for example yearly or 5-yearly averages. Edit: There is also a THREDDS data catalog present which allows you to extra…

If you could boil it down for the busier among us: on a scale of "screwed" to "really screwed", how screwed does it say we are? ;)

Not based on this dataset, but I gather most models already require an assumption of powerful carbon capture tech on a big scale to result in an outcome other than disaster. i.e. reduction alone is no longer sufficient in itself to prevent serious consequences.