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NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

climate.nasa.gov

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Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#71

Post by guelo »

anon1385 wrote: post #49
barney54 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rebuttal: http://judithcurry.com/2015/06/04/has-noaa-busted-the-pause-... The greatest changes in the new NOAA surface temperature analysis is to the ocean temperatures since 1998. This seems rather ironic, since this is the period where there is the greatest coverage of data with the highest quality of measurements – ARGO buoys and satellites don’t show a warming trend. Nevertheless, the NOAA team finds a substantia…

>regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration Judith sure knows how to play to the gallery.

Yea and in other posts she's always defending Ted Cruz. Really makes you trust her sciencyness.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#72

Post by Ygg2 »

jellicle wrote: post #26
duncan_bayne wrote: post #7

Let's see if these fare any better than the projections used by the IPCC ... http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5297 "The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level." Kudos to them for publishing these, though. If they are rotten, it ought to be easy to tell.

ESR is a climate scientist too?! Is there anything he isn't an expert on? swoon

Apparently he is expert on conspiracy theories:

     > Most of the environmental movement is composed of 
    innocent Gaianists, but not all of it. There’s a hard    
    core that’s sort of a zombie remnant of Soviet psyops.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#73

Post by a3n »

baldfat wrote: post #55
a3n wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like if these large public datasets continue to come on line, there will need to be some sort of semi-cooperative distributed data store to make them truly "accessible." Or the data provider will need to provide an access/query API, rather than just a big tank that you can copy if you dare.

Bit Torrent might actually help as a tool to help distribute these large data sets. The big issue is that so few people actually would need to download these large dataset.

But possibly many more people could use access to the data while they use the apps that were made possible by the data.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#74

Post by toomuchtodo »

RutZap wrote: post #2

Would be great to see a nice visualisation tool built on top of OpenStreetMaps or something like that which allows you to see the predicted temperatures for a given location though time. Sadly this is way over my capabilities, also a 11 TB dataset is not easy to work with :(

Would you be open to Kickstarting this project if the resulting repo was public/open source on Github?

EDIT: I should be clear. I would not be writing the code. I'd do the legwork to find someone (and pay them) who is familiar working with OSM to process the data, create the dataset, and build a javascript frontend to visualize it. The result would be open source. I would accept no funds whatsoever for this.

I don't have the time to do the project, but that doesn't mean I can find someone who does, and get them paid to do it and make the results freely available.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#75

Post by toomuchtodo »

guelo wrote: post #69
duncan_bayne wrote: post #7

Let's see if these fare any better than the projections used by the IPCC ... http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5297 "The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level." Kudos to them for publishing these, though. If they are rotten, it ought to be easy to tell.

A paper just came out in the journal Science that says there was no pause. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/201...

The key takeaway:

> Noting that “buoy data have been proven to be more accurate than ship data,” the new study applies a new “bias correction” to address the difference between them.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#76

Post by godspiral »

VLM wrote: post #43
andy_ppp wrote: post #10

If the earth is 509 million square kilometers and the granularity of the data is 25sq km this means we have about 20.3m data points. It implies then on average each point is 540mb. The dataset seems to be broken down by year rather than location though, a UX issue I'd say...

WRT breaking down by year, you could save some download time that way. Lets say you express the predicted error in the data not as a percentage of temperature but as a time along the trendline. That would imply beyond a certain estimated error horizon, it doesn't really matter which year you download as long as you get the decade vaguely correct, once the temperature error figure exceeds a couple years of travel alon…

Its frustrating that they are not publishing the data in such chunks. Its good that they make every year available, but for analysis/reporting, you could reasonably just care about years 2030, 2050, 2100.

1 year of data would mean 120GB files or so (assuming 100 years total)

Breaking it down by lattitude would mean 800MB lattide-year average data sets. Breaking it down by longitude would be very helpful too, and not much reason to not make that breakdown in addition to the lattitude one, which means 5mb data chunks.

Its almost as though they are being intentionally uncooperative by dumping 12TB.

Hopefully, some group makes a web interface that allows downloads in these manageable chunk sizes.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#77

Post by dhimes »

DonHopkins wrote: post #27
duncan_bayne wrote: post #7

Let's see if these fare any better than the projections used by the IPCC ... http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5297 "The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level." Kudos to them for publishing these, though. If they are rotten, it ought to be easy to tell.

His global warming conspiracy theories are as crackpot as his racist criminology theories. "In the U.S., blacks are 12% of the population but commit 50% of violent crimes; can anyone honestly think this is unconnected to the fact that they average 15 points of IQ lower than the general population? That stupid people are more violent is a fact independent of skin color. " -Eric S Raymond, http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=129…

LOL Rational Wiki quote (endnote refs left in):

"His work and expertise in computer technology[9][10] has been all but overshadowed by his batshit insane wingnut tendencies in the wake of 9/11, as well as his increasingly wanky ego-gazing[11][12] as he acknowledges that people aren't so crazy about him anymore. "

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#78

Post by fixermark »

tonec wrote: post #24

The entire dataset is 12TB because it contains _daily_ global 25x25km maps for all years between 1950-2099 probably for a bunch of different variables. You don't need to download the entire thing to get the gist of it, although it probably would have helped if they also delivered a digest version with for example yearly or 5-yearly averages. Edit: There is also a THREDDS data catalog present which allows you to extra…

If you could boil it down for the busier among us: on a scale of "screwed" to "really screwed", how screwed does it say we are? ;)

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#79

Post by Daishiman »

barney54 wrote: post #12
mavhc wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-...

Rebuttal: http://judithcurry.com/2015/06/04/has-noaa-busted-the-pause-... The greatest changes in the new NOAA surface temperature analysis is to the ocean temperatures since 1998. This seems rather ironic, since this is the period where there is the greatest coverage of data with the highest quality of measurements – ARGO buoys and satellites don’t show a warming trend. Nevertheless, the NOAA team finds a substantia…

Ahh, yes, the famous Judith Curry, known by climate scientists as a quack who seems to be rather incapable of understanding the most basic notions of physics necessary to build (or refute, for that matter) any sort of argument in climate sciences.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#80

Post by GFK_of_xmaspast »

scarmig wrote: post #59
duncan_bayne wrote: post #7

Let's see if these fare any better than the projections used by the IPCC ... http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5297 "The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level." Kudos to them for publishing these, though. If they are rotten, it ought to be easy to tell.

What would be very interesting is for ESR to publish his own predictions, as he feigns expertise. Or, hell, any global warming denialist to publish predictions at all, or build any model at all beyond their day jobs of quote mining and writing clever PR releases that prey on the public's scientific illiteracy and fossil fuel barons' desire to violate other people's lives and properties with untrammeled carbon polluti…

You shouldn't encourage ESR to produce content.
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