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NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

climate.nasa.gov

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Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#41

Post by philh »

DonHopkins wrote: post #35
drzaiusapelord wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>average 15 points of IQ lower than the general population? Growing up in poverty, which many minorities do in this country, has been linked with lower IQ. Criminal populations are 8 IQ points below the mean. Whether there's a connection here is beyond me, but I really hate how people play up the hysterical political correctness card to censor these types of discussions. In many countries, raising people out of pover…

I'm doing the opposite of censoring them: I'm bringing them up for discussion, and making sure we DO discuss race issues. Eric Raymond is on the record as having said a hell of a lot of other racist stuff. Remember his full throated defense (employing the dog-whistle term "thug") of Russ Nelson's infamous "Blacks are Lazy" essay that was such an embarrassment to the open source software community? https://en.wikipedi…

I don't remember that, and a quick google doesn't immediately find a source.

But now you're quoting ESR on witch hunts, not ESR on race.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#42

Post by a3n »

baldfat wrote: post #22
a3n wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it go significantly quicker if you downloaded it to a VPS instead of your home?

That would help but the cost of storage for 11 TB and the up time to download would be extremely expensive. I haven't seen an option that works for less than around $200 to rent and setup.

$200 isn't all that much, if it lets you get results while you're still alive. :)

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#43

Post by VLM »

andy_ppp wrote: post #10

If the earth is 509 million square kilometers and the granularity of the data is 25sq km this means we have about 20.3m data points. It implies then on average each point is 540mb. The dataset seems to be broken down by year rather than location though, a UX issue I'd say...

WRT breaking down by year, you could save some download time that way.

Lets say you express the predicted error in the data not as a percentage of temperature but as a time along the trendline. That would imply beyond a certain estimated error horizon, it doesn't really matter which year you download as long as you get the decade vaguely correct, once the temperature error figure exceeds a couple years of travel along the trend lines.

By example lets say today, here, 2080 CE, is 35C +/- 2C (to make the math easy) but the trend line is 0.1C/yr (unrealistic, but make the math easy) then +/- 2C is the same thing as saying +/- 20 years along the trendline, so I don't really need the 2080 data set I can do "roughly as well" with any data set downloaded from 2070 to 2090.

Yeah yeah I know calculus and the derivative is likely not constant or even linear and this is a really simplified way to look at statistics, but the general plan holds as a way to cut back on downloaded data required. Based on REAL statistical analysis you could come up with a formula that says you'll only increase the error bars 10% wider at year X if you skip every Y years of data. Where I'm guessing Y might exceed a decade at the extreme future years of the run. That could save an enormous amount of bandwidth without significantly impacting a visualization or analysis.

"Someone else" has to download it all, run the stat analysis, then tell us all, obviously it doesn't scale for all of us to download it all, run our own stat analysis, then go back in time and only download every Y-th year at or beyond year X. So thanks in advance, "Someone else"!

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#44

Post by julienchastang »

ANH wrote: post #30
happyscrappy wrote: post #3

NASA has released detailed global climate change projections. If you would like to know what these projections are please drink from this data firehose.

I might be wrong, but I believe the THREDDS server the article points to (by way of https://cds.nccs.nasa.gov/nex-gddp/ ) supports OPeNDAP, which means you can pull subsets of the data, i.e. if you've got a 40GB file, you could slice a tiny portion of that off for downloading.

I work with the THREDDS team at Unidata. Though I still need to study this particular dataset, in general yes, the THREDDS server can do serverside subsetting of the data so that reasonably sized data is shipped over the wire.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#46

Post by ikeboy »

DonHopkins wrote: post #28
jellicle wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ESR is a climate scientist too?! Is there anything he isn't an expert on? swoon

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Eric_S._Raymond During the Climategate fiasco, Raymond's ability to read other peoples' source code (or at least his honesty about it) was called into question when he was caught quote-mining analysis software written by the CRU researchers, presenting a commented-out section of source code used for analyzing counterfactuals as evidence of deliberate data manipulation. When confronted wit…

"When confronted with the fact that scientists as a general rule are scrupulously honest"

citation needed

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#47

Post by johnchristopher »

DonHopkins wrote: post #28
jellicle wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ESR is a climate scientist too?! Is there anything he isn't an expert on? swoon

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Eric_S._Raymond During the Climategate fiasco, Raymond's ability to read other peoples' source code (or at least his honesty about it) was called into question when he was caught quote-mining analysis software written by the CRU researchers, presenting a commented-out section of source code used for analyzing counterfactuals as evidence of deliberate data manipulation. When confronted wit…

> when he was caught quote-mining analysis software written by the CRU researchers

As in 'building a graph of who quotes who ?' What's wrong with that ?

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#48

Post by ikeboy »

DonHopkins wrote: post #39
jchrisa wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to see upfront mention of things like environmental lead before I'm comfortable with that angle of analysis.

I'd like to see some mention of the fact that blacks are incarcerated at MUCH higher rates for committing the same crimes as whites, which he never addresses (and he ignores it when people bring it up), yet that totally undermines his statistical argument. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-rushing/the-reasons-why-...

Those statistics are somewhat flawed.

See http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/25/race-and-justice-much-m....

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#49

Post by anon1385 »

barney54 wrote: post #12
mavhc wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-...

Rebuttal: http://judithcurry.com/2015/06/04/has-noaa-busted-the-pause-... The greatest changes in the new NOAA surface temperature analysis is to the ocean temperatures since 1998. This seems rather ironic, since this is the period where there is the greatest coverage of data with the highest quality of measurements – ARGO buoys and satellites don’t show a warming trend. Nevertheless, the NOAA team finds a substantia…

>regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration

Judith sure knows how to play to the gallery.

Re: NASA releases detailed global climate change projections

#50

Post by VLM »

DonHopkins wrote: post #35
drzaiusapelord wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>average 15 points of IQ lower than the general population? Growing up in poverty, which many minorities do in this country, has been linked with lower IQ. Criminal populations are 8 IQ points below the mean. Whether there's a connection here is beyond me, but I really hate how people play up the hysterical political correctness card to censor these types of discussions. In many countries, raising people out of pover…

I'm doing the opposite of censoring them: I'm bringing them up for discussion, and making sure we DO discuss race issues. Eric Raymond is on the record as having said a hell of a lot of other racist stuff. Remember his full throated defense (employing the dog-whistle term "thug") of Russ Nelson's infamous "Blacks are Lazy" essay that was such an embarrassment to the open source software community? https://en.wikipedi…

"making sure we DO discuss race issues"

So... you're saying the only possible opposition to his climate results is distraction via playing the race card, logical fallacies, and sophistry? So you're a strong supporter of his climate claims. Yet you were implying between the lines earlier that his climate claims are perhaps not so good. Which is it? Or is it just the anti-scientific "truth depends solely upon who says it"?

As a meta analysis I'm not sure dramatizing or personalizing a statistical analysis is supposed to improve anything anyway. So how deep does the sophistry go? Is there any reasoned response to the claims other than personal attacks against theoretical semi-libelous attacks against individuals based on unrelated political beliefs? Sadly, there probably is, so you're doing a disservice to that position. Are you are being paid to disrupt scientific reports about climate change by discrediting "supporters"? It is known there are people being paid to do that, although I'd expect hirelings to do a better job for their pieces of silver.

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