Software Is Eating the Job Market • Hacker News Board

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#101

Post by merpnderp » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 9:38 PM UTC

juliangregorian wrote: post #82

merpnderp wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only in the corporate welfare system we have today (see Chevrolet bailout). Without corporate welfare in the forms of subsidies, bailouts, and regulations, companies like Telsa would be destroying the major auto manufactures. What old major companies would still be around without un-capitlistic like interventions from the government?

No, it was true for East India, it was true for Standard Oil, and it's still true today. Much of regulation was intended for the protection of consumers, not to cement incumbents, and the subversion of the same is evidence of capitalism's predatory nature.

Businesses continue their regulatory capture in the US. The line between corporations and government grows thinner every time a burdensome regulation is created that only companies with significant resources can follow.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/060815-756320-domin...

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#102

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 11:10 PM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #98

mason240 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

I'm getting really tired of hearing Basic Income cited to handwave away the real problems of economic dislocation. Look, I support the idea of a basic income, but when your simple solution is a radical top-to-bottom change in the entire economic system then I can't take you any more seriously than someone who thinks that communism would make all our problems go away if only every country would adopt it at once. I mea…

> UBI is a fine idea, but proponents are awfully short on specifics. It would be very nice if people would cite a particular scheme or gameplan they consider to be credible when they mention the topic.

Social Security and Medicare expanded to everyone, regardless of age.

No handwaving, that's the general idea. The devil is in the details, and there are many details to work out.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#103

Post by sanderjd » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 11:18 PM UTC

int3 wrote: post #76

sanderjd wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But education isn't what you need to be an experienced worker, you need experience . I think the parent's point is a great one, and would add to it that things are headed toward a glut of well-educated but nonetheless inexperienced people.

Fair enough. But experience can be garnered outside companies, and the Internet is making that easier, too: OSS development, nonprofit / pro bono work, etc.

Absolutely true, but "well, we've replaced entry-level jobs with working for free" is a terrible answer.

Also, would edit my original reply if I could to say that things seem to be heading this direction, not that they definitely or inevitably are.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#104

Post by dragonwriter » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 11:18 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #102

anigbrowl wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm getting really tired of hearing Basic Income cited to handwave away the real problems of economic dislocation. Look, I support the idea of a basic income, but when your simple solution is a radical top-to-bottom change in the entire economic system then I can't take you any more seriously than someone who thinks that communism would make all our problems go away if only every country would adopt it at once. I mea…

> UBI is a fine idea, but proponents are awfully short on specifics. It would be very nice if people would cite a particular scheme or gameplan they consider to be credible when they mention the topic. Social Security and Medicare expanded to everyone, regardless of age. No handwaving, that's the general idea. The devil is in the details, and there are many details to work out.

> Social Security and Medicare expanded to everyone, regardless of age.

That's an idea, but its not the idea of UBI. Medicare is a complex health insurance system consisting both of government provided and government-subsidized-private health insurance, it isn't anything like UBI.

Social Security is, aside from age or disability test to withdraw from it, a system with benefits governed by your (or your spouse's) past contributions, as such its also (even ignoring the age/disability part) very much not like UBI.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#105

Post by tsotha » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 11:24 PM UTC

klipt wrote: post #90

kfk wrote: post #58

So, when we came up with agriculture some millenia ago, all those jobless people, those hunters/explorers/etc., did not stay jobless, did they? What about when we came up with machines in the 19th century? All those people in agriculture would still be jobless, but they are not, are they? Point is, every technological innovation will be absorbed in the long term. It's been historically this way for millennia, at leas…

> those hunters/explorers/etc., did not stay jobless A lot of them were killed by agricultural invaders, since you can feed a much larger army with agriculture. > All those people in agriculture would still be jobless Agricultural countries like India got invaded by industrial countries like Britain. Even now, increasingly autonomous drones are killing people in the middle east. It's often not good to be on the sharp…

>Even now, increasingly autonomous drones are killing people in the middle east.

Increasingly? No, they're the same amount autonomous as they've ever been.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#106

Post by tsotha » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 11:27 PM UTC

jklinger410 wrote: post #19

I think we need this to happen. We need McDonald's to move to an entirely robotic store. We need every store to mechanize every thing they possibly can. That way we can increase our efficiency as a country by multitudes and get on with the nasty part of Universal Base Income. It has to happen. And for America, as a competitive nation, the sooner the better.

>That way we can increase our efficiency as a country...

How are you measuring efficiency here? If it makes sense to hire someone to do something and instead you go entirely robotic, that's the less efficient way to do something.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#107

Post by tsotha » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 11:29 PM UTC

meatysnapper wrote: post #5

Ironically, in the software job market for companies of say over 100 people, the desire to hire H1Bs is overwhelming due to the cheaper cost + lock-in.

Yeah, I don't see any indication there's a shortage of software developers. There are a lot of 50+ year old software developers out of work, and a whole lot of companies refuse to hire people without a degree.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#108

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 11:30 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #104

toomuchtodo wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> UBI is a fine idea, but proponents are awfully short on specifics. It would be very nice if people would cite a particular scheme or gameplan they consider to be credible when they mention the topic. Social Security and Medicare expanded to everyone, regardless of age. No handwaving, that's the general idea. The devil is in the details, and there are many details to work out.

> Social Security and Medicare expanded to everyone, regardless of age. That's an idea, but its not the idea of UBI. Medicare is a complex health insurance system consisting both of government provided and government-subsidized-private health insurance, it isn't anything like UBI. Social Security is, aside from age or disability test to withdraw from it, a system with benefits governed by your (or your spouse's) past…

> That's an idea, but its not the idea of UBI. Medicare is a complex health insurance system consisting both of government provided and government-subsidized-private health insurance, it isn't anything like UBI.

Single-payer healthcare removes a HUGE problem with providing basic income. I don't see how providing universal healthcare interferes with UBI.

> Social Security is, aside from age or disability test to withdraw from it, a system with benefits governed by your (or your spouss) past contributions, its also (even ignoring the age/disability part) very much not like UBI.

And.....? The SSA is already extremely efficient at distributing funds. Allow them to issue no-fee debit cards they issue, remove age/disability testing, ignore contributions, and then get funding from the general fund.

I'm not saying its easy. I'm saying its how you eat an elephant: one bite at a time.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#109

Post by dragonwriter » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 11:34 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #108

dragonwriter wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Social Security and Medicare expanded to everyone, regardless of age. That's an idea, but its not the idea of UBI. Medicare is a complex health insurance system consisting both of government provided and government-subsidized-private health insurance, it isn't anything like UBI. Social Security is, aside from age or disability test to withdraw from it, a system with benefits governed by your (or your spouse's) past…

> That's an idea, but its not the idea of UBI. Medicare is a complex health insurance system consisting both of government provided and government-subsidized-private health insurance, it isn't anything like UBI. Single-payer healthcare removes a HUGE problem with providing basic income. I don't see how providing universal healthcare interferes with UBI. > Social Security is, aside from age or disability test to withd…

> Single-payer healthcare removes a HUGE problem with providing basic income.

Whether or not that's the case, single-payer healthcare is a different idea from UBI, not a component of UBI (and, indeed, something that conservative supporters of UBI -- of which there are quite a few -- are more likely to see UBI as an alternative to rather than to see as part of UBI.)

> > Social Security is, aside from age or disability test to withdraw from it, a system with benefits governed by your (or your spouse's) past contributions, its also (even ignoring the age/disability part) very much not like UBI.

> And.....?

And so your claim that the idea of UBI is Social Security and Medicare for everyone regardless of age is simply grossly inaccurate.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#110

Post by anigbrowl » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 11:37 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #102

anigbrowl wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm getting really tired of hearing Basic Income cited to handwave away the real problems of economic dislocation. Look, I support the idea of a basic income, but when your simple solution is a radical top-to-bottom change in the entire economic system then I can't take you any more seriously than someone who thinks that communism would make all our problems go away if only every country would adopt it at once. I mea…

> UBI is a fine idea, but proponents are awfully short on specifics. It would be very nice if people would cite a particular scheme or gameplan they consider to be credible when they mention the topic. Social Security and Medicare expanded to everyone, regardless of age. No handwaving, that's the general idea. The devil is in the details, and there are many details to work out.

Of course I know what the idea is. I'm saying that UBI proponents need to say 'it'll cost X, we'll save Y by slashing all this bureaucracy, the rest will come from Z,' as well as some sort of strategy to shepherd it through the political process, figure how it will mesh with immigration policy, and so on.

What I'm complaining about is that hardly anyone seems to be making a serious effort to fill out those details, and if proponents of the idea can't even point to a detailed proposal for how to implement it over a reasonable timeframe, how do you expect to convince people to sign on to it? 'Let's elect politicians who support it and then work out the details once they're in office' has not IMHO worked out very well historically.

I'm not saying you have to come up with the whole plan or type it out every time the subject comes up, f course! But I wish you could point me to who you think has something resembling an actionable plan.