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Software Is Eating the Job Market

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Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#91

Post by russell »

vezzy-fnord wrote: post #18

This article is written in such a pompous style that I can't immediately tell if it isn't tied to some form of public relations press release. The shortage of software developers is well-documented and increasingly discussed. It's certainly discussed, though its ostensible documentation is a subject of dispute [1]. The role of poor hiring practices is also often omitted. Far more than just a fad or buzzword, referenc…

I think I have to quibble with Wheeler's attribution of the invention of the computer virus. Credit should go to John Brunner in his 1975 novel, "The Shockwave Rider". He invented the term worm for a sophisticated virus that could propagate through a network.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#92

Post by x0x0 »

jerf wrote: post #43
niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

This is in the class of problems that naturally corrects itself over time. When your firm can't hire anyone with experience, and there's no entry-level jobs, it will discover the same solution to that problem that has been discovered any number of times in any number of other situations already: Mentoring and something that looks like apprenticeship. Compared to the prospect of there being no job at all because softw…

No, they won't. Counterexample: Engineering shortage!

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#93

Post by jes »

juliangregorian wrote: post #33
jes wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean people trading with others on a voluntary, win-win basis, or do you mean what today is labeled capitalism but is characterized by coercive force and cronyism?

Capitalism always tends toward monopoly, there's only a difference in the minds of idealistic libertarians.

Did you miss the use of the word "voluntary" in my comment?

Absent force, a person is free to either accept or reject a given deal.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#94

Post by jklinger410 »

s73v3r wrote: post #53
jklinger410 wrote: post #19

I think we need this to happen. We need McDonald's to move to an entirely robotic store. We need every store to mechanize every thing they possibly can. That way we can increase our efficiency as a country by multitudes and get on with the nasty part of Universal Base Income. It has to happen. And for America, as a competitive nation, the sooner the better.

Seriously? You honestly think that the political landscape is anywhere closer to accepting that kind of socialism? I'm gonna tell you right now that it's not. And even if that automation happens, it's not going to change anything regarding UBI. Here's the problem: If the automation happens before UBI gets into place, you are condemning those people to incredibly poor lives, and possibly homelessness and starvation.

>Seriously? You honestly think that the political landscape is anywhere closer to accepting that kind of socialism?

If businesses start automating everything, unemployment skyrockets, they're going to be pushed there. They won't have a choice. What do you predict? Half the country is unemployed, poverty is rampant, chaos in the streets, the fatcats in Washington and 1% just sit back and do nothing?

>And even if that automation happens, it's not going to change anything regarding UBI.

It has to.

>Here's the problem: If the automation happens before UBI gets into place, you are condemning those people to incredibly poor lives, and possibly homelessness and starvation.

Here's the problem: UBI won't get into place without automation. If it were up to me, I'd have it right now. But it's going to take motivation by SELF-INTEREST for people to realize that it HAS to happen. That self-interest? The generally deplorable state of their country.

I just want society to progress, that's all. If we were running this country effectively many of the inventions we are only seeing come to market today would have been here long ago. Greed holds us back, greed drives us forward. So let's stop letting it hold us back, let's push for automation, and then watch the chips fall from there.

If you don't think automation will change anything, how do you think it will change without automation? Isn't that what you're proposing?

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#95

Post by Lawtonfogle »

kfk wrote: post #86
Lawtonfogle wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A past trend being unbroken is a good heuristic for it to continue, but it is not proof that it will do so. The coming issue is that our software is getting better at replacing jobs faster than new jobs can be created. Not only is manual labor jobs being replaced, but so are knowledge jobs and creative jobs.

> The coming issue is that our software is getting better at replacing jobs faster than new jobs can be created That is a pretty big assumption right there. There is no absolute amount of jobs being created, right? I mean, wouldn't you pay $1 per hour to have your shirts ironed? Then is it a problem of jobs count or jobs pay? It's pay, isn't it? If it's pay, then you are asking the wrong question. The question would…

My 'jobs are being replaced faster than created' has an implied 'and our economic model doesn't otherwise change' to it when I state that it is a problem.

Now you can disagree with the notion that jobs are being replaced faster than created and even take the stance that such a thing will never happen. But assuming you don't disagree that this will eventually happen (eventually here meaning in our lifetime or maybe our children's; not counting thousands of years down the road), then it is going to be a problem. Yes, it is only a problem because of how our economic situation is set up, but all of that isn't the bit that changed that created our problem. And yes, changing the economic set up can resolve the problem. But the problem itself remains the same (unless you disagree with it ever happening).

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#96

Post by juliangregorian »

jes wrote: post #93
juliangregorian wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism always tends toward monopoly, there's only a difference in the minds of idealistic libertarians.

Did you miss the use of the word "voluntary" in my comment? Absent force, a person is free to either accept or reject a given deal.

A deal implies ownership. Ownership requires force. Try again.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#97

Post by PopsiclePete »

s73v3r wrote: post #53
jklinger410 wrote: post #19

I think we need this to happen. We need McDonald's to move to an entirely robotic store. We need every store to mechanize every thing they possibly can. That way we can increase our efficiency as a country by multitudes and get on with the nasty part of Universal Base Income. It has to happen. And for America, as a competitive nation, the sooner the better.

Seriously? You honestly think that the political landscape is anywhere closer to accepting that kind of socialism? I'm gonna tell you right now that it's not. And even if that automation happens, it's not going to change anything regarding UBI. Here's the problem: If the automation happens before UBI gets into place, you are condemning those people to incredibly poor lives, and possibly homelessness and starvation.

I hate to be that guy, but the people he'll be condemning are most likely the exact same people so opposed to UBI. I have never seen so many "temporarily embarrassed millionaires" as I have in American trailer parks. The most vocal "anti-socialism-anything" crowd is the exact same crowd that would benefit from UBI.

And honestly, that America deserves a rough wake-up call more than any other group. And the sooner it happens, the better.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#98

Post by anigbrowl »

mason240 wrote: post #21
toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works until you run out of consumers with cash, at which point it no longer works.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

I'm getting really tired of hearing Basic Income cited to handwave away the real problems of economic dislocation. Look, I support the idea of a basic income, but when your simple solution is a radical top-to-bottom change in the entire economic system then I can't take you any more seriously than someone who thinks that communism would make all our problems go away if only every country would adopt it at once.

I mean we can't get single-payer healthcare going in this country, despite the numerous models of it working quite well (and at lower cost than our system) in a number of other developed countries that are glad to share their experience with us. UBI is a fine idea, but proponents are awfully short on specifics. It would be very nice if people would cite a particular scheme or gameplan they consider to be credible when they mention the topic.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#99

Post by juliangregorian »

oldmanjay wrote: post #83
juliangregorian wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, this is the problem with capitalism. It's predicated on the assumption of returns increasing to infinity, which is clearly impossible.

I'm not sure where you get that idea. There may well be individual capitalists who believe that, and certainly in the heat of speculation some individuals act as if that is their belief, but the system itself has no such requirement.

Economics 101. Both parties are supposed to gain additional utility from any trade. I'll wait while you do the math.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#100

Post by dragonwriter »

jes wrote: post #30
wnevets wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sounds like capitalism is broken.

Do you mean people trading with others on a voluntary, win-win basis, or do you mean what today is labeled capitalism but is characterized by coercive force and cronyism?

> or do you mean what today is labeled capitalism but is characterized by coercive force and cronyism?

That's what has always been labeled capitalism, starting with the socialist critiques of the dominant system (filled, as it was, with coercive force and cronyism) in the developed world in the mid-to-late 19th century who invented the term "capitalism" as a label for that system.

Outside of incoherent, fantasies the neither exist in the real world or stand up to much examination even in theory -- fantasies constructed largely as a propaganda to defend that coercive, cronyistic system from its critics -- nothing else but coercive, cronyism-dominated systems has ever been referred to with the label "capitalism".

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