Software Is Eating the Job Market • Hacker News Board

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#71

Post by M8 » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:07 PM UTC

hittudiv wrote: post #9

But again, there is no shortage of engineers as the article says. The only problem is the quality. Atleast from what i saw in India people just take computer science as a degree because it pays more, not because they love to code.. There is a problem with this kind of people. People who LOVE what they do always over take people who dont.

There is a shortage of experienced engineers willing to work for an entry-level salary. Also there is "change your job for this fantastic opportunity - we gonna give you a 10% raise max".

Somehow nobody is discussing a shortage of CEOs... Maybe because they are compensated fairly?

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#72

Post by jcromartie » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:08 PM UTC

niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

There's no solution for this short of a revolution in free real-world education and something like apprenticeships.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#73

Post by joshuapants » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:10 PM UTC

kfk wrote: post #58

So, when we came up with agriculture some millenia ago, all those jobless people, those hunters/explorers/etc., did not stay jobless, did they? What about when we came up with machines in the 19th century? All those people in agriculture would still be jobless, but they are not, are they? Point is, every technological innovation will be absorbed in the long term. It's been historically this way for millennia, at leas…

The term "past performance does not guarantee future results" comes to mind.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#74

Post by anigbrowl » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:11 PM UTC

stcredzero wrote: post #51

jerf wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is in the class of problems that naturally corrects itself over time. When your firm can't hire anyone with experience, and there's no entry-level jobs, it will discover the same solution to that problem that has been discovered any number of times in any number of other situations already: Mentoring and something that looks like apprenticeship. Compared to the prospect of there being no job at all because softw…

Shouldn't an economist be able to figure out when such a phenomenon is happening? It seems like this should be quantifiable. It seems like a 21st century government should be looking for these situations to be arising with some regularity now, and that a "template" program for helping mentoring/apprenticeship practices to come about faster might make sense. (Modulo one's faith in the (in)competence of government inte…

Yes, and in countries like Germany there's a three-way relationship between government, employers, and unions, who seem to start from a broad assumption of being on the same team. That relationship is much more fraught in the US, where relations between business and unions are historically antagonistic (with both sides deserving some blame for this), and you have a large contingent of people that are convinced government shouldn't exist and is fundamentally incompetent to solve problems (but often simultaneously a highly effective tyrannical entity).

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#75

Post by Lawtonfogle » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:12 PM UTC

kfk wrote: post #58

So, when we came up with agriculture some millenia ago, all those jobless people, those hunters/explorers/etc., did not stay jobless, did they? What about when we came up with machines in the 19th century? All those people in agriculture would still be jobless, but they are not, are they? Point is, every technological innovation will be absorbed in the long term. It's been historically this way for millennia, at leas…

A past trend being unbroken is a good heuristic for it to continue, but it is not proof that it will do so. The coming issue is that our software is getting better at replacing jobs faster than new jobs can be created. Not only is manual labor jobs being replaced, but so are knowledge jobs and creative jobs.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#76

Post by int3 » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:15 PM UTC

sanderjd wrote: post #37

int3 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting points. > The problem is that we are eating entry-level jobs, and in turn, creating an artificial scarce supply of "experienced" workers. On the other hand, it is easier than ever to get cheap, basic education in a variety of things, with the Internet and MOOCs making information widely available. So entry-level jobs may be less necessary these days. On the other hand, it means the people who can afford t…

But education isn't what you need to be an experienced worker, you need experience . I think the parent's point is a great one, and would add to it that things are headed toward a glut of well-educated but nonetheless inexperienced people.

Fair enough. But experience can be garnered outside companies, and the Internet is making that easier, too: OSS development, nonprofit / pro bono work, etc.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#77

Post by chadgeidel » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:16 PM UTC

mason240 wrote: post #63

s73v3r wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the political landscape today, we need a different solution. That's basically socialism (something I don't have a problem with), and I'm sure you've seen how well things with even the hint of socialism have gone over in the US. Most Tea Partiers would be completely happy to have things turn out Hunger Games style, as they're assuming that they'd be on top, rather than having to send their child in to fight.

This isn't socialism at all. The main tenants of socialism are ending profit and private property. UBI embraces the same kind of capitalism we have now with private property and profit. In order to say that UBI is socialist, you also have to be calling Social Security socialism, and you have to think that President Obama is a socialist. I think you would find a lot more support among conservatives than you think (it…

"In order to say that UBI is socialist, you also have to be calling Social Security socialism, and you have to think that President Obama is a socialist."

And that's exactly what the Tea Party types are saying.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#78

Post by merpnderp » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:18 PM UTC

juliangregorian wrote: post #33

jes wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean people trading with others on a voluntary, win-win basis, or do you mean what today is labeled capitalism but is characterized by coercive force and cronyism?

Capitalism always tends toward monopoly, there's only a difference in the minds of idealistic libertarians.

Only in the corporate welfare system we have today (see Chevrolet bailout). Without corporate welfare in the forms of subsidies, bailouts, and regulations, companies like Telsa would be destroying the major auto manufactures. What old major companies would still be around without un-capitlistic like interventions from the government?

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#79

Post by russell » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:19 PM UTC

ctdonath wrote: post #46

mason240 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Except you'll have increasing encroachment on motivation of the productive. When Ronald Reagan was a top-billed Hollywood actor, he faced a ~90% tax bracket. Rather than work hard only to see most of his earnings confiscated, he'd make just a few movies and then enjoy those profits instead of spending time on diminishing returns. Same for plenty of us motivated ones: if 80% are living off the 20%, that will require t…

I understand this issue of maintaining motivation under conditions of artificial full employment was a problem under the Soviet system, but I'm not sure it is necessarily a problem in a post-scarcity economy. For one thing employment can be increased by reducing the work week. After all we went from 60 hour work weeks to 40 hour, even less in Europe where there are longer vacations than in the US. Education over the past century has gone from mostly primary only to mostly college, absorbing excess labor capacity.

I think the idea of 80% leeches living off the 20% productive is just wrong headed. What we will see is the general quality of life improved for everyone. Sure there will some that need to be entirely supported by the rest of us: the homeless, the mentally ill, the infirm, the elderly. The real danger is that the increases in productivity are being siphoned off by the rich and not being equitably distributed. Capitalism is inherently an unstable system tending towards monopoly and the destruction of the commons (pollution and the like) and must be reasonably constrained.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#80

Post by sixtypoundhound » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 7:19 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #42

niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

While predictive coding (using machine learning to identify potentially interesting documents in discovery) exists, it is not common. Armies of first year associates have mostly been replaced by armies of contract lawyers, not machines. I imagine that's true in a lot of other industries. Entry level jobs pay less and have less prospect for growth simply because labor supply continues to grow while the economy and con…

Worse, we seem to be eroding the nature of those entry level roles so that they don't teach the broader parts of a role.

Was I excited to get an analyst job right out of school for $28K/year (many years ago), after earning a math degree from a prestigious school? Uh, not really. But...

- Only about 50% of my job was actually excel nerf-herding

- The other 50% was a mix of research projects and building the department budget...this allowed me to meet everyone in the building and learn a little bit about how their area worked (and how the company made money)

- Better yet, I was one of three analysts in a 50 person marketing unit...so it was expected my next role would be outside of analytics and I was trained/coached accordingly. The company put less focus on my excel wrangling skills (low value) and more on me as a future program manager or senior tech (high value).

- Ah yes...and we were sufficiently small, I had to learn how to pull my own data (SQL and some light SAS scripting)

The net result? Pretty much everyone in my 10 person class of recruits amounted to something, professionally. Most are manager/director level, about half technical, half business.

The same company today splits the same work into a couple of specialist teams, consolidated across the company, with minimal cross training. You don't join as talent, you join as an Excel monkey. And dang it, we're gonna make you a very productive Excel Monkey. No need to learn the other stuff.

The results have been disappointing...