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Software Is Eating the Job Market

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Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#61

Post by spanktheuser »

fixermark wrote: post #36
niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

I wonder where that leaves the job market, given that there will still be a need for these roles in the future (and plenty of incentive for someone to learn the roles via whatever means become available). Are unpaid internships a symptom of this flow perhaps? They read a lot like apprenticeships (but with a significant burden of responsibility missing).

Interesting anecdote: at a devbootcamp event, I ran into two high school graduates who skipped a traditional bachelor's in favor of three months of intensive web development training followed by a year of unpaid internships. They evaluated this as considerably less expensive than a university education while providing a comparable level of experience.

I'm not sure I agree, but it's interesting that very young people and their families are beginning to question the established educational model in such a bold fashion.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#62

Post by SovietDissident »

I for one welcome our robot overlords. As a member of the technical class, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves.

But seriously, the Luddite argument has been debunked many times. There's no reason to think this time it's any different. (for example: http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/6717/economics/the-luddite...)

That doesn't mean there aren't real issues:

1. The inflexibility of the labor market makes it harder for those who have lost their jobs to find new ones. Further, if a company does not have the option to fire someone relatively easily (and cheaply), they will be less willing to take a chance on someone who may not exactly fit all of their criteria.

2. A monolithic, Prussian-inspired state educational system has not responded well to imparting new skills to people (or even basic competency, in some cases). Math and science curricula are notoriously weak in the U.S., yet that is where the growth and the high-paying jobs are. There are also opportunities in the trades, but these have been cut from most schools.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#63

Post by mason240 »

s73v3r wrote: post #49
mason240 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Given the political landscape today, we need a different solution. That's basically socialism (something I don't have a problem with), and I'm sure you've seen how well things with even the hint of socialism have gone over in the US. Most Tea Partiers would be completely happy to have things turn out Hunger Games style, as they're assuming that they'd be on top, rather than having to send their child in to fight.

This isn't socialism at all. The main tenants of socialism are ending profit and private property. UBI embraces the same kind of capitalism we have now with private property and profit. In order to say that UBI is socialist, you also have to be calling Social Security socialism, and you have to think that President Obama is a socialist.

I think you would find a lot more support among conservatives than you think (it seems like you have quite the caricature of them). It seems like there would opposition from left, and UBI would require a complete dismantling of all non-healthcare entitlement programs, a serious reduction of the tax code, and heavily clamping down on all immigration.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#65

Post by toomuchtodo »

ctdonath wrote: post #46
mason240 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Except you'll have increasing encroachment on motivation of the productive. When Ronald Reagan was a top-billed Hollywood actor, he faced a ~90% tax bracket. Rather than work hard only to see most of his earnings confiscated, he'd make just a few movies and then enjoy those profits instead of spending time on diminishing returns. Same for plenty of us motivated ones: if 80% are living off the 20%, that will require t…

> Raise my taxes enough (only to "redistribute" to those opting to not work) and I'll switch to untaxable yet satisfying "off the grid" living.

You're assuming what you do can't be automated. I want to automate what you do so you can live "off the grid" if you want.

Capitalism only entitles you to profits on your labor capital until it has no value.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#66

Post by niuzeta »

m_tex wrote: post #64

I have noticed that people LOVE to make the distinction between a programmer and a " software engineer", in every and any context/article. I am just waiting on one of those comments..

my favorite distinction of the kind is "software developer" and "coder".

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#67

Post by vezzy-fnord »

ctdonath wrote: post #55
int3 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting points. > The problem is that we are eating entry-level jobs, and in turn, creating an artificial scarce supply of "experienced" workers. On the other hand, it is easier than ever to get cheap, basic education in a variety of things, with the Internet and MOOCs making information widely available. So entry-level jobs may be less necessary these days. On the other hand, it means the people who can afford t…

That's assuming there's any incentive to pursue that free education. A large segment of the population has no interest in working save for the fact that if they don't they'll starve; these are not self-motivated people who seek out academic pursuits in their spare time. Entry-level jobs are absolutely necessary, first for learning to get to work on time daily , then for the job-specific education needed to work up to…

Those advocating "basic income" need to go look up the phrase "going Galt" (upshot: given enough unproductive leeching off the productive, the latter are apt to say "screw this" and disappear from society).

"Going Galt" appears to primarily be a fantasy scenario. People largely tend to consumption rates which are smoothed and that factor in long-term expectations of income as opposed to marginally increasing rates that follow short-term signals like a linear input-output device. So it seems that tax burdens alone are not enough to cause massive "dropping out of society", as rational actors have determined that participation in consumer society in light of regulations and other externalities is still preferable to the costs of off-the-grid living. Not that taxation can't cause disincentive, but it's more complicated than just that.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#68

Post by CyberDildonics »

random28345 wrote: post #54
jerf wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is in the class of problems that naturally corrects itself over time. When your firm can't hire anyone with experience, and there's no entry-level jobs, it will discover the same solution to that problem that has been discovered any number of times in any number of other situations already: Mentoring and something that looks like apprenticeship. Compared to the prospect of there being no job at all because softw…

> When your firm can't hire anyone with experience, and there's no entry-level jobs, it will discover the same solution to that problem that has been discovered any number of times in any number of other situations already Yes, hire a temporary worker with an H-1B visa or outsource it outright.

Guess what? There are other countries with people in them that can program too. Everyone has to compete with that fact. Don't be a hypocrite that dismisses people complaining about Mexicans, software, and robots yet gets upset that people from other countries are playing on the same field.

No one is entitled to be the only person that gets to do a job that many other people can do.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#69

Post by task_queue »

hittudiv wrote: post #16
niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

The ultimate winners here would be the software employees in my opinion. The money flows from investors/public to the geeks. Dont know how the economy is going to work out with that though.

That's a false narrative. Owners and executives are the winners here. We are underpaid for the value we bring in and the industry has been caught trying to keep it that way.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#70

Post by mason240 »

ctdonath wrote: post #46
mason240 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Except you'll have increasing encroachment on motivation of the productive. When Ronald Reagan was a top-billed Hollywood actor, he faced a ~90% tax bracket. Rather than work hard only to see most of his earnings confiscated, he'd make just a few movies and then enjoy those profits instead of spending time on diminishing returns. Same for plenty of us motivated ones: if 80% are living off the 20%, that will require t…

>The "seriously productive" ones you're expecting to leech off MUST have lots of less-but-still-productive people working for them - and you're tearing out the incentive to do so.

The situation UBI applies to is in a more post-labor world. One where a McDonald's only needs 2 people working instead of 16. At this point it's not going to be taxing those 2 workers but the company itself.

If you want to earn more money than your UBI check (which you would still get if you work), you will still have an incentive to earn more money.

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