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Software Is Eating the Job Market

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Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#41

Post by [deleted] »

acchow wrote: post #15
niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

Do you have some data on this? Also, this is a perspective I've not considered or heard of before. Thanks for that.

[deleted]

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#42

Post by rayiner »

niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

While predictive coding (using machine learning to identify potentially interesting documents in discovery) exists, it is not common. Armies of first year associates have mostly been replaced by armies of contract lawyers, not machines. I imagine that's true in a lot of other industries. Entry level jobs pay less and have less prospect for growth simply because labor supply continues to grow while the economy and consequently demand is pretty stagnant.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#43

Post by jerf »

niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

This is in the class of problems that naturally corrects itself over time. When your firm can't hire anyone with experience, and there's no entry-level jobs, it will discover the same solution to that problem that has been discovered any number of times in any number of other situations already: Mentoring and something that looks like apprenticeship.

Compared to the prospect of there being no job at all because software ate the whole thing, at the societal level this is barely interesting at all. Yeah, it sucks if you get caught in that moment where the problem hasn't quite become acute enough for the field to realize it needs to do apprenticeships instead of expecting experience, but, well, there isn't necessarily a better solution than waiting for the field to figure it out.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#44

Post by rewqfdsa »

CSMastermind wrote: post #13
rewqfdsa wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not per capita it doesn't. Come on, that's a novice error.

The chart on the first page of his link is "Job openings rate" which graphs the number of job opening by percentage of the population per year. How is that not per capita?

What chart? The linked PDF goes back to May 2012. The title claims 15 years.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#45

Post by s73v3r »

hittudiv wrote: post #7

Nothing new.. If i can replace a security guard of my office for a cheaper more efficient, less error prone, robot/software instead of a human for half the price, WHY NOT! The exact same philosophy goes into "software is eating the world".

From your perspective, it's pretty black and white. However, from society's perspective, it's pretty nuanced. What are the people who would have taken that guard position going to do now? They have to eat and pay rent too. Some might be able to go study and get better jobs, but many will not. They simply may not have the economic freedom to not have a job and go study, which is a HUGE luxury. So what is to become of them?

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#46

Post by ctdonath »

mason240 wrote: post #21
toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works until you run out of consumers with cash, at which point it no longer works.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Except you'll have increasing encroachment on motivation of the productive.

When Ronald Reagan was a top-billed Hollywood actor, he faced a ~90% tax bracket. Rather than work hard only to see most of his earnings confiscated, he'd make just a few movies and then enjoy those profits instead of spending time on diminishing returns. Same for plenty of us motivated ones: if 80% are living off the 20%, that will require taking so much from the 20% that most of those will opt for doing something interesting and untaxable. The "seriously productive" ones you're expecting to leech off MUST have lots of less-but-still-productive people working for them - and you're tearing out the incentive to do so. Raise my taxes enough (only to "redistribute" to those opting to not work) and I'll switch to untaxable yet satisfying "off the grid" living.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#47

Post by nostrademons »

santaclaus wrote: post #25
hittudiv wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ultimate winners here would be the software employees in my opinion. The money flows from investors/public to the geeks. Dont know how the economy is going to work out with that though.

The software employers are probably accumulating capital at a higher rate than the software employees.

Probably, but an increasing number of software employees are striking out to become software employers as well. Software is interesting in that virtually all capital is human capital, and that small changes in the environment (a shift from web to mobile, for example) can invalidate large swaths of accumulated domain knowledge.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#48

Post by chc »

wnevets wrote: post #14
toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works until you run out of consumers with cash, at which point it no longer works.

sounds like capitalism is broken.

Having an economy dominated by private, profit-seeking businesses isn't really the problem here. For example, communist societies also face some awkwardness when there isn't enough work to go around, albeit to a lesser degree. The fundamental problem is the assumption that people have to work to live.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#49

Post by s73v3r »

mason240 wrote: post #21
toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works until you run out of consumers with cash, at which point it no longer works.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Given the political landscape today, we need a different solution. That's basically socialism (something I don't have a problem with), and I'm sure you've seen how well things with even the hint of socialism have gone over in the US. Most Tea Partiers would be completely happy to have things turn out Hunger Games style, as they're assuming that they'd be on top, rather than having to send their child in to fight.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#50

Post by s73v3r »

hittudiv wrote: post #27
toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works until you run out of consumers with cash, at which point it no longer works.

Why would i run out of money if i pay half of what i pay to a normal guard.. would i not be saving more money? there is more money to spend on more gadgets :) thats how the economy works

Where do you get your money? I'm assuming from customers paying you. But customers will only pay you as long as they have money. If the trend toward this kind of automation keeps going, then the number of customers with money will keep shrinking and shrinking.
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