Software Is Eating the Job Market • Hacker News Board

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#31

Post by juliangregorian » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:20 PM UTC

wyager wrote: post #22

toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works until you run out of consumers with cash, at which point it no longer works.

The net production capacity of humanity (per capita and absolute) is constantly increasing. Why would you ever run out of consumers? Just because fields occasionally become irrelevant doesn't mean that those workers and their descendents will never find work ever again.

Right, this is the problem with capitalism. It's predicated on the assumption of returns increasing to infinity, which is clearly impossible.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#32

Post by wnevets » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:21 PM UTC

jes wrote: post #30

wnevets wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sounds like capitalism is broken.

Do you mean people trading with others on a voluntary, win-win basis, or do you mean what today is labeled capitalism but is characterized by coercive force and cronyism?

I mean if efficiency leads to no one having jobs and thus cash to buy anything. That sounds like a broken system to me.

>It works until you run out of consumers with cash, at which point it no longer works.

edit: spelling

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#33

Post by juliangregorian » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:22 PM UTC

jes wrote: post #30

wnevets wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sounds like capitalism is broken.

Do you mean people trading with others on a voluntary, win-win basis, or do you mean what today is labeled capitalism but is characterized by coercive force and cronyism?

Capitalism always tends toward monopoly, there's only a difference in the minds of idealistic libertarians.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#34

Post by ghaff » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:22 PM UTC

hittudiv wrote: post #16

niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

The ultimate winners here would be the software employees in my opinion. The money flows from investors/public to the geeks. Dont know how the economy is going to work out with that though.

Maybe. There is also a lot of work going into providing tools for domain experts so that entry-level programmers aren't needed for, e.g. data visualization. So it's not clear to me that the dynamic is any different in software engineering than anywhere else.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#35

Post by ska » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:23 PM UTC

spelunker wrote: post #23

amelius wrote: post #20

Still, if you have brains, it is much easier and less risky to make a decent living by becoming a doctor, or a lawyer.

Isn't the lawyer profession way over-saturated right now?

In one sense, yes. On the other hand, many people take law degrees without any intention of working directly as lawyers, so "it's complicated"

Really, it doesn't make any sense to lump the two careers together (at least in the US), anymore.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#36

Post by fixermark » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:24 PM UTC

niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

I wonder where that leaves the job market, given that there will still be a need for these roles in the future (and plenty of incentive for someone to learn the roles via whatever means become available).

Are unpaid internships a symptom of this flow perhaps? They read a lot like apprenticeships (but with a significant burden of responsibility missing).

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#37

Post by sanderjd » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:24 PM UTC

int3 wrote: post #29

niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

Interesting points. > The problem is that we are eating entry-level jobs, and in turn, creating an artificial scarce supply of "experienced" workers. On the other hand, it is easier than ever to get cheap, basic education in a variety of things, with the Internet and MOOCs making information widely available. So entry-level jobs may be less necessary these days. On the other hand, it means the people who can afford t…

But education isn't what you need to be an experienced worker, you need experience. I think the parent's point is a great one, and would add to it that things are headed toward a glut of well-educated but nonetheless inexperienced people.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#38

Post by fixermark » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:29 PM UTC

hittudiv wrote: post #27

toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works until you run out of consumers with cash, at which point it no longer works.

Why would i run out of money if i pay half of what i pay to a normal guard.. would i not be saving more money? there is more money to spend on more gadgets :) thats how the economy works

You would have money. The people who used to work the security positions would not have money, and it's an open question whether your consumption of many products (such as food) could keep up the consumption rates to justify the production to keep the market operating at its current flow levels. If they can't, the market would have to contract, which means if what you're guarding is a food store, you may also find yourself out of a job because we no longer need to guard the food nobody is buying. This is how Great Depressions occur.

And that's just looking at the numbers. Stepping away from the simulation and getting into what it represents, we realize we're looking at a situation where some people have the money to do whatever they want and many, many more starve. If the system is structured to make that happen, the system is flawed by several quite reasonable metrics.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#39

Post by Rainymood » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:29 PM UTC

amelius wrote: post #20

Still, if you have brains, it is much easier and less risky to make a decent living by becoming a doctor, or a lawyer.

What if your 'risk/reward' was based off 'happiness' instead of financial gain?

I know I wouldn't be able stomach a 5+ year law degree and practice law for the rest of my life and be happy. I'd rather do something with numbers.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#40

Post by mason240 » Tue, Jun 09, 2015, 6:29 PM UTC

wnevets wrote: post #14

toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works until you run out of consumers with cash, at which point it no longer works.

sounds like capitalism is broken.

It's not broken, it's just that reality of labor is changing to the point that the ideas we have about how to create a healthy economy won't work anymore. It's similar to how Marx's theories were only applicable when the vast majority of labor was simple factory or agricultural work, and you assume everything about the industrial revolution would remain static.

The #1 method for creating a strong economy has been to try reaching maximum labor participation - everyone has a job, and government does what it can to move people into a position to meet labor demand.

Once we move into a post-labor economy, we will just have to adjust how we make capitialism work through things like Universal Basic Income.