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Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

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Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. Birth rate has a lot of uncontrollable factors like demographics. A slump in people in ages 20-40 will inevitably leas to falling birth rate at the same fertility. And that will repeat in 20-40 years. The factor to focus on is the fertility and the fraction of working adults. Germany has a very traditional view of the labour market and women often have to stop working for years when having children. This means…

The only proven solution is subsidized childcare, longer parental leave, individual taxation. This is an interesting comment to me, because I'm trying to think of example country pairs in which a country with subsidized childcare, longer parental leave, and individual taxation has a higher fertility rate than an otherwise similar country that lacks those things. The United States continues to have a higher fertility…

US also have large immigration.

I've noticed countries that have huge immigration can offset any birthrate.

Japan is in trouble cause they don't have any immigration laws.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Japan has managed to brew the deadly mix of aging population, extremely traditional values leading to very low fertility, and an extremely low acceptance of immigration. it feels almost dystopian to think about the demographics in a few decades: elderly and robots will far outnumber the rest.

I read posts like yours and it really saddens me. It's hard for me to respond without sounding insulting or condescending, but you are wrong on pretty much every word you write. Unfortunately, you are probably the victim of biased writing about Japan. For just one example, go here: http://www.us.emb-japan.go.jp/english/html/travel_and_visa/t... Scroll down to the section about getting a working visa. Have a look at w…

I (or my previous post) don't disagree with you!

As for immigration: If rules are very liberal, why is immigration so limited? Is it hard for foreigners to get these jobs? what about refugees and other non-professional immigration? Note that I don't think Japan is necessarily xenophobic (recent polls suggest a majority is pro immigration) but it's traditionally quite conservative and a bit "introvert" and let's agree it's not exactly a haven for the worlds poor immigrants...

The fertility rate in Japan is low, and there are many reasons for that. Like you say, as a society becomes more progressive and equal, more women will choose professional careers. This means longer educations and smaller windows for having family. That isn't the problem, the problem is that when this good thing happens, in order to keep fertility from dropping (assuming we want it to), a society must adopt things like subsidized daycare, parental leave and so on. Failing to do so means women have to choose between careers and family.

Japan will survive but an aging or shrinking population is problematic economically. It would really benefit Japan to have a higher fertility rate, and hopefully it can be done without women having to stop having careers.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#123
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are they worried about being killed by famine (after having eaten their own cats and dogs), war or pandemic soon? If not, then they are not "struggling to live", which in turn means there is no need to reproduce that much. From the biological perspective, excessive population growth can be dangerous to the species [1]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink

Probably not but I can't see why "to be killed by famine" is a relevant point here (A lot of alive germans had experienced the fear to be killed by famine in their past, that's for sure, as many other people that was children in the wars and postwars). Today 7 millions of germans live with minijobs and for most of them is its only source of income. I don't really see those people reproducting like bunnies, but well..…

s/understant/understand/

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. Birth rate has a lot of uncontrollable factors like demographics. A slump in people in ages 20-40 will inevitably leas to falling birth rate at the same fertility. And that will repeat in 20-40 years. The factor to focus on is the fertility and the fraction of working adults. Germany has a very traditional view of the labour market and women often have to stop working for years when having children. This means…

The only proven solution is subsidized childcare, longer parental leave, individual taxation. This is an interesting comment to me, because I'm trying to think of example country pairs in which a country with subsidized childcare, longer parental leave, and individual taxation has a higher fertility rate than an otherwise similar country that lacks those things. The United States continues to have a higher fertility…

Sweden-Germany is such a pair. They both have high immigration rate too.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#125
post #40

I'm not so sure I understand the point of view that labor shortages will be such a bad thing for the economy. If you are a worker, "high labor costs" is a very GOOD thing. For decades we've seen the value of labor fall behind the value of capital, and a more constrained labor supply might help change this.

As long as it isn't global it will just mean that German industry will have to move production elsewhere and/or it will be cost effective to employ ever more expensive robots to do the work.

But it's already true that German workers are much more expensive than most other countries, yet Germany still has very low unemployment.

Yes, a constrained labor supply will be problematic for everyone who is NOT a worker (most importantly, a large elderly population), but if you are a worker, it's almost always a good thing.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#126
post #91
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Japanese can themselves decide which option to take, rather than being forced into one from the outside. The current elected government seems to have taken the route of inflating away the debt.

> The current elected government seems to have taken the route of inflating away the debt. Yeah, and it's not a pretty way to go with solving the debt problem. This will result in higher prices for everyone, destroying savings and hurting in result the private sector. "Just" to save the government.

It is not to save the government, it is to save the money from the people who own the government bonds, who are mainly Japanese. It is a redistribution issue.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#127

Birth rate is rarely the correct metric because it is affected by longevity. The metric most people are interested in is fertility rate, where Germany still has a long way to go to pass Singapore. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

Bingo. Came here to say this too. Germany has a very large aging population. In 15 years time a large percentage of these will have died (baby boomers). Germany has some interested ng regional issues too. Many old DDR states have lost much of their younger generation. These states are filled with people in their late 50's and older.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#128
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

typically their qualifications are low, though

They're certainly higher than German-born newborns. If you can afford to educate a child from birth, you can certainly afford to train adults.

not true

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read posts like yours and it really saddens me. It's hard for me to respond without sounding insulting or condescending, but you are wrong on pretty much every word you write. Unfortunately, you are probably the victim of biased writing about Japan. For just one example, go here: http://www.us.emb-japan.go.jp/english/html/travel_and_visa/t... Scroll down to the section about getting a working visa. Have a look at w…

I (or my previous post) don't disagree with you! As for immigration: If rules are very liberal, why is immigration so limited? Is it hard for foreigners to get these jobs? what about refugees and other non-professional immigration? Note that I don't think Japan is necessarily xenophobic (recent polls suggest a majority is pro immigration) but it's traditionally quite conservative and a bit "introvert" and let's agree…

Thank you for your follow up post which describes your ideas a lot more clearly. I know it's quite a lot more to type, but if you write like this it is much harder for people to misunderstand what you mean. For me it is important because I am constantly trying to correct misunderstandings about Japanese culture.

I will attempt to answer your questions as best as I can. It is not hard for foreigners to get a job in Japan. There are 2 kinds of jobs: permanent positions from which it is difficult to lose your job and temporary positions which are usually renewed every year.

The first kind of position is hard to get unless you are just graduating from some kind of Japanese school (high school, trade school, university, etc). Even for Japanese people it is extremely difficult to get one of these jobs if you didn't get one right out of school. If you left your job, or were let go then it might be nearly impossible. As such, this kind of job is usually out of reach for most foreigners.

This is not necessarily a problem because there are lots of contract positions available and most foreigners are in Japan for a limited amount of time. Your initial visa is for 1-3 years (mostly depending on how much the government thinks you are at risk for not being able to support yourself if you lose your job). If you maintain your position in your job, my experience has been that the renewal is pretty much a rubber stamp. The last time I renewed it was literally a rubber stamp. The immigration official looked at my application for 10 seconds, asked me if I was still working at the same place and stamped the application -- visa renewed for 3 years!

Immigration without a university degree is quite a bit more difficult (but no more so than any other country I've lived in). I live in Shizuoka prefecture which probably has the highest migrant worker population in Japan, so my experiences may not reflect the whole of Japan. But as long as you can get a visa, there are many, many factory jobs available -- in fact there is a real shortage of workers.

The factories like to work with 1 year contract positions for their workers. This allows them to adjust the work force based on the current economic climate. Most Japanese people would like to have permanent positions, so these contract positions go unfilled for the most part.

There are also positions available for skilled workers who may not have gone to university. A good example are care workers for the elderly. In fact, there are many government programs to bring in workers from outside of the country. Like many "1st world" countries, care workers are underpaid here and since it is a very difficult job, most Japanese people would rather not do it.

So, basically, it is comparatively easy to come to Japan and get a job. In fact, many, many people do come to Japan. They just don't stay. Why?

It is hard to explain without being misunderstood, but I will try. If you are not Japanese, living in Japan is hard. This is not to say that Japanese people are hard on foreigners -- quite the opposite! Japanese people usually go out of their way to be extremely friendly and make exceptions for people who do not know the details about Japanese culture. In fact, it is this which forms most of the problem.

I usually explain Japan as an "inside - outside culture". By this I mean that in Japan people naturally form groups. For example, you have your family. You know the people who are inside your family and who are outside. Japanese people treat people on the inside of a group completely differently than the people on the outside of the group. This is integral to Japanese culture.

Now, you might imagine that this creates discrimination since you would have a group of Japanese people and a group of non-Japanese people, and to some extent this occurs. However, it works quite differently than more foreigners expect. If you are on the inside of a group you have a huge number of rules that you must follow (many of them seemingly arbitrary). You will be scolded if you breach one of these rules. At the extreme, you might even be excluded from the group if you show that you can't follow the rules. I have heard a saying, "If a nail sticks out, hammer it in. If it still sticks out, hammer it in again. If it still sticks out, throw it away". This is a pretty accurate description of what it is like on the inside of a Japanese group.

Outside the group, people are extremely polite and friendly. People will almost always go out of their way to help people outside their group. People are always smiling and say nice things. For people outside the group, you can pretty much always break the rules and get away with it. You don't even need to keep track of the rules at all because you are an outsider. The people on the inside will say, "Oh. They are an outsider. They don't know the rules. Let's forgive them".

Most foreigners, when they first come to Japan, experience being on the outside. It is very, very nice. People are so friendly and welcoming and helpful. Eventually you realize that only some of the people actually want to be nice and friendly. The rest of them are following the arbitrary rule of being friendly to outsiders.

This puts the foreigner, who is not used to Japanese culture, in a very awkward position. They aren't used to being treated so distantly. At first you think you are making lots of friends, but eventually you realize that quite a few of your "friends" are simply tolerating you out of a sense of duty. Many of the smiles are just masks and the kind words are simply repeated mindlessly without any particular intention.

At this point, many foreigners would like to get "inside" and in my experience, it is not difficult at all to get inside a group. Most groups are honestly flattered (and often surprised) that you might want to join them. But then you have to learn all the rules -- and follow them. Foreigners in Japan quickly get used to what has been called the "Gaigin Superpower" -- the ability to do whatever you want because nobody expects a foreigner to know the rules. When you start to get inside a group, though, you must always follow the rules. Any infraction -- whether you knew about the rule before hand or not -- reflects badly on the whole group.

Honestly, I know of only a few foreigners who can deal with it. Especially expats from the US or the UK often find that Japanese culture is at odds with their own moral values. They sometimes try to convince other Japanese people to change their ways and to adopt what they believe is a superior way of living. I have found that those kinds of people tend to get crushed by the sheer momentum of Japanese culture.

I suppose you could say that the above is "quite conservative and a bit `introvert`", but it is quite a bit more complicated than that. Of course my views are coloured by my experiences, but I have met many foreigners working here (both professionals and non-professionals). The people who are successful here all have pretty much the same profile: Are fluent in Japanese, are willing and able to follow arbitrary rules and be polite, try not to change Japanese ways of doing things, are willing to be "inside" several groups with all the downsides that entails.

In my experiences, the vast majority of people in the world are not willing to do those things. This is why they don't stay.

I hope you've found the above interesting. I love living in Japan. For whatever reason I find that I am actually more free here than anywhere else in the world. I am aware, however, that it is the rare foreigner that feels the way I do. I do not think that this is a bad thing, but it definitely hampers immigration.

As for improving career choices for women, I feel that this will happen as a matter of necessity in Japan. Again, it is a strange thing about Japan that most foreigners don't understand. In most parts of the world you fight to establish new ideas. These ideas spread slowly until most of the people have adopted them. In Japan it is completely different. Nothing ever changes in Japan. Everybody does things the way they have always done them. Nobody complains and everybody carries on in the same way. Then one day, somebody makes a decision that something will be done a different way. From that day forward, everybody does it that way. Everybody follows the rules. Nobody complains.

Note: Of course they complain! They just complain to their in-group ;-). Pro tip: If you want to know who your real friends are in Japan, they are the ones complaining to you.

As an example, when I first came to Japan, people used to smoke on the street while going places. Or they used to smoke while waiting for the train. One day these signs came up that said "A cigarette butt is eye level for a child. Let's stop walking and smoking." Now I barely see anyone walking around with a lit cigarette. It is now forbidden to smoke on the train platform and I can't recall ever seeing anyone break the rule.

Someday it will happen. The government will tell industry, "You must keep women working even when they have children because we need more workers". It will just happen -- no debate, no struggle, no (public) complaints.

That's Japan.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#130
post #84
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention that in these highly-developed countries with solid education systems and modern career opportunities, the value-creating power of an individual is several times higher than that of an average individual in a developing country. The fertility rate among founders in Silicon Valley is probably even lower, but that group of people is creating an immense amount of value for society in return for not creati…

They're creating stuff that's valuable to society. I don't see though how they're so much greater than other people who create value, like medical researchers, biotech researchers, engineers, artists, etc.

All of those professions count too. My point is that the value-creating power of any well-educated individual (in any profession) is higher; thus, the government of a country with a solid education system shouldn't be afraid of a lack of population expansion; value to the country isn't indicated by number of lives.
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