>It is based on mindshare of developers, the market position of the product and public demand for the item.
No, no, no. This war is won by distribution. Your mom doesn't go to the store to buy an android phone. She goes to buy a phone. Which phone? The one that the friendly employee at the store proposes. Which one is that? The one that the store manager tells the employee to push. Which phone is that? The one that corporate headquarters tells stores to push. Which phone is that? The ones with lucrative kickback schemes. Which phones are that? The ones that manufacturers decide.
Which phones will they decide on? The phones in partnerships with the company that changes their agreements and APIs every quarter? Maybe they will chose the company that they have a very profitable partnership going on for 3 decades. The company that has the power to waive a magic stick and turn them from unprofitable/breakeven to well into the green. Comapnies pay a lot of money to MSFT every year on patents. Samsung paid $1bn last year alone. Every manufacturer is losing money on smart phones because of that. Guess what? If you push our phone, we can share those patents with you. Oh, btw, we can subsidize those windows phones, give you some cash advance on the OS you sell for us just to stitch things up for the next few quarters.
Microsoft is all about business. Big business. Big partnerships. They suffocate competition in a very deliberate manner. Google hasn't competed ever with anyone. Moreover, Erick Smidt tanked Novel back in the day because of poor relationships with their partners.
On top of that, the OS will be good. Nobody will complain. Lots of phones will be sold in the lower end market. Some corporate deals will be done for the mid and high end markets and the ball will get rolling. Developers will be happy too. MSFT is making big progress in that lately. You also get the added bonus of developing for the windows PC and tablet platforms, in addition to the phone platform. Everyone will make lots of money. Except google.