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Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

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Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#21
post #7

This has been debunked over and over already. The predictions based on the tree ring data in question are known to have diverged from actual, measured temperatures from 1960 onward. They're known to be fairly accurate prior to 1960, to the best of our knowledge. This is a scientific thing - if you can prove that tree rings were affected enough by non-temperature factors prior to 1960 to lead to inaccurate temperature…

Ok so, if we know the 1960+ tree ring data is bad, why do we continue to assume it was good before that point? What changed in 1960 that 'invalidates' the tree ring data?

Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#22
post #12
post #4

That's nothing compared to the comments that show up in "HARRY_READ_ME.txt": http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=118625&#...

That excerpt reads to me as written by a frustrated programmer who was given a dataset that was poorly designed and lacks sufficient documentation. I've been in that situation before, as has anyone who's had to work with real-world data. This hack episode seems really scary to me. Getting angry at the computer, your suppliers, et cetra is all part of the development process --- as is writing angry comments and intern…

You're referring to the dataset that is the basis of enormous de-industrialization projects. Is it too much to ask to have it properly designed with sufficient documentation?

~A Jedi hand wave~

"These are not the smoking guns your are looking for."

Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#23
post #22
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That excerpt reads to me as written by a frustrated programmer who was given a dataset that was poorly designed and lacks sufficient documentation. I've been in that situation before, as has anyone who's had to work with real-world data. This hack episode seems really scary to me. Getting angry at the computer, your suppliers, et cetra is all part of the development process --- as is writing angry comments and intern…

You're referring to the dataset that is the basis of enormous de-industrialization projects. Is it too much to ask to have it properly designed with sufficient documentation? ~A Jedi hand wave~ "These are not the smoking guns your are looking for."

"enormous de-industrialization projects"

Honest question: What projects are you referring to?

Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#24
post #15
post #7

This has been debunked over and over already. The predictions based on the tree ring data in question are known to have diverged from actual, measured temperatures from 1960 onward. They're known to be fairly accurate prior to 1960, to the best of our knowledge. This is a scientific thing - if you can prove that tree rings were affected enough by non-temperature factors prior to 1960 to lead to inaccurate temperature…

They're known to be fairly accurate prior to 1960, to the best of our knowledge. This is a scientific thing This sounds backwards. We calibrate against the instrumental record up to 1960, we know that there is increasing divergence post 1960, thus should we presume we can have greater trust for the previous eras where we have no instrumental record? Wouldn't the onus be on explaining the divergence? I haven't seen an…

Absolutely. I'm not very good at finding information in scientific papers, but here's the first few I found with Google. If those don't satisfy you, I'll see what I can find when I get home from work.

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/fac/trl/downloads/Publicati... (PDF) is a paper that specifically addresses a lot of the concerns about temperature prediction using tree rings. In particular, I'd like to quote the following section as it pertains directly to your question:

"A number of tree-ring series indicate a divergence between tree growth and temperature at some northern sites in recent decades (e.g. Briffa et al. 1995, Jacoby and D'Arrigo 1995, Briffa et al. 1998, Vaganov et al. 1999, Barber et al. 2000). Theories for the cause (s) of this observed divergence, which may vary from site to site, include decreased temperature sensitivity due to warmer temperatures, drought stress, increased winter snowmelt and ozone effects. This divergence needs to be considered to avoid bias in dendroclimatic reconstructions; however it is not present everywhere. For example, temperature-sensitive elevational treeline sites in Mongolia and the European Alps exhibit dramatic growth increases in recent decades (D'Arrigo et al. 2001, Buntgen et al. 2005)."

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/fac/trl/downloads/Publicati... (PDF) is an earlier paper referenced in the above that also discusses the problem.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Loehle_Divergence_CC.pdf (PDF) is a paper by someone that's more skeptical, it goes into a fair bit of detail about the possible causes, mostly to argue against them.

Of course, we're getting a bit away from the actual topic. We know about the post-1960ish divergence. We know that it's a good idea to exclude that data from any kind of analysis, which isn't a problem because we have accurate modern measurements from that period to use instead. There may be other periods of inaccuracy - but if there are, they haven't been discovered, and there is a substantial amount of overlap between these reconstructions and our actual instrumental record during the calibration period. In other words, it's the best reconstruction we have at the moment, and like any scientific theory, it's subject to change if better evidence were to come along. Unfortunately, the skeptics seem to be more interested in politicizing the debate rather than finding that better evidence themselves.

None of this really changes what the comment says, which was basically "Don't use this to plot past 1960, because we know that part needs corrections". I don't see an issue with that. The wording could be better, but it's a useful note to have, to make sure that the data isn't misused. I don't think it would be necessary to say "Oh yeah, the rest is just a theory, it could be wrong too" - everyone who was supposed to have access to the source knew that. It comes with the territory. The problem is when internal stuff is leaked and that territory changes - a random person reads that comment, completely misses the tentative scientific context and thinks that the programmer is asserting the absolute correctness of everything he doesn't single out as wrong.

Edited to add in a (PDF) tag that I forgot.

Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#25
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the real problem is the people that want to use this as a 'smoking gun' to prove that they were 'right all along' that Global Warming is some sort of conspiracy to harm the auto industry by a bunch of 'hippy liberals' and that 'American industry' should keep on pouring out the pollution (of any kind) as long as it's able to make money because that's the 'American Way' that we use out 'American Ingenuity.'

Please re-read your comment and stop and reflect. You're using buzzwords rather than trying to get the scope of the argument - it's like your mind is already made up. If your mind is already made up, then you won't be open to various truth and evidence.

Parent is just quoting buzzwords, but I can't say that he's altogether wrong: the reason this is a story has nothing to do with science, or any desire to find the truth. It's a clash where each side has already decided that it's Right based almost exclusively on political lines in the sand. Hacker News is pretty much one of the only places on the net where a significant proportion of posters have not already decided the issue for sure.

For my part, and I am educated in the sciences (though not environmental ones, to the extent they can be considered "science"), I have no freaking idea what the true state of affairs is, and I doubt that anyone has much valid knowledge in this area. I don't trust any of the data that I see because a) historical inference is really, really difficult, and I'm very unimpressed by how it's been done, and b) there's so much incentive on each side to mangle the data to fit the conclusion. I don't have any faith in the environmental researchers to fairly report what the data tells them, but I'm just as skeptical about the bias of people arguing against them, aligned as they tend to be with the idiots and organizations that fight so hard against evolution.

Just to be clear, I absolutely believe that there are valid theoretical reasons to consider the possibility of (human caused) global warming; the models are more than enough to show that it's a real possibility. It's only the claim that it's already been observed (and that it's significant, reversible, etc.) that I'm skeptical about.

However, I think that strategically speaking, the environmentalism movement's increased focus on global warming is a big mistake because it gives anti-environmentalists a fixed target to nibble away at, and they're doing a pretty good job of causing doubt. Wasn't it obvious enough that spewing pollutants into the air is bad? Why not focus on that, like everyone used to? Instead, the environmentalists have taken on the burden of proving that global warming is man-made, catastrophic, and reversible; until then, the burden was on the anti-environmentalists to prove that it was safe to pollute as much as they wanted, which was pretty much an impossible task.

I worry that far more important environmental concerns than carbon output are being ignored because of the excessive focus on global warming, and this shift in attention could be truly catastrophic.

Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#26
post #24
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're known to be fairly accurate prior to 1960, to the best of our knowledge. This is a scientific thing This sounds backwards. We calibrate against the instrumental record up to 1960, we know that there is increasing divergence post 1960, thus should we presume we can have greater trust for the previous eras where we have no instrumental record? Wouldn't the onus be on explaining the divergence? I haven't seen an…

Absolutely. I'm not very good at finding information in scientific papers, but here's the first few I found with Google. If those don't satisfy you, I'll see what I can find when I get home from work. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/fac/trl/downloads/Publicati... (PDF) is a paper that specifically addresses a lot of the concerns about temperature prediction using tree rings. In particular, I'd like to quote the foll…

When I was a kid I remember hearing about how acid rain was hurting forests in many areas, including large parts of Canada and the USA.

Factors like that are certainly going to have an impact on the recent tree record.

Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#27
post #8

I'm more in the skeptic camp, but I don't find the comments cited in this article very suspect, especially without further context. The comments may just be warning users not to use the function past 1960. The most damning excepts from the leaked email are the following: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/11/024996.php In this one, they delete emails rather than respond to a FOIA request http://www.powerlineb…

Is this what happens when you run the function past 1960?

http://i49.tinypic.com/mk8113.jpg

Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#28
post #8

I'm more in the skeptic camp, but I don't find the comments cited in this article very suspect, especially without further context. The comments may just be warning users not to use the function past 1960. The most damning excepts from the leaked email are the following: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/11/024996.php In this one, they delete emails rather than respond to a FOIA request http://www.powerlineb…

Maybe. But they've had the opportunity for years to explain their methodology to the world. Yet they refused to release the details of what they were doing, taking this attitude (as quoted from one of the alleged emails):

We should be able to conduct our scientific research without constant fear of an "audit" by Steven McIntyre; without having to weigh every word we write in every email we send to our scientific colleagues. ... I am unwilling to submit to this McCarthy-style investigation of my scientific research... I will continue to refuse such data requests in the future. Nor will I provide McIntyre with computer programs, email correspondence, etc. I feel very strongly about these issues. We should not be coerced by the scientific equivalent of a playground bully. I will be consulting LLNL's Legal Affairs Office in order to determine how the DOE and LLNL should respond to any FOI requests that we receive from McIntyre.

They shouldn't be surprised now to find that they're being tarred.

Of course, that doesn't help us extract the truth of the situation. But it's a pretty clear object lesson to other scientists.

Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please re-read your comment and stop and reflect. You're using buzzwords rather than trying to get the scope of the argument - it's like your mind is already made up. If your mind is already made up, then you won't be open to various truth and evidence.

Parent is just quoting buzzwords, but I can't say that he's altogether wrong: the reason this is a story has nothing to do with science, or any desire to find the truth. It's a clash where each side has already decided that it's Right based almost exclusively on political lines in the sand. Hacker News is pretty much one of the only places on the net where a significant proportion of posters have not already decided…

Very well said. I commented elsewhere that the politicization is also likely the reason for the scientists doing dubious things in the first place - having their life's work under constant attack by reactionary nutjobs probably left them feeling a bit cornered, and so they made the mistake of viewing all criticism as nutjob criticism.

It's true that we've become obsessively focused on global warming as of late, although I would place at least as much blame on the media for that. In the past couple years, though, some groups have been doing a better job of saying "BTW clean energy will also create jobs and improve our national security." The WE campaign is one such example.

Re: Comments in ClimateGate source code: unambiguous smoking gun

#30
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about something more along the lines of, "I think that we should trust a doctor to evaluate another doctor's performance rather than ?" I mean have you seen some of the arguments against things like evolution by 'lay people?' The correct course of action here is to get them to produce an explanation, then evaluate whether it's reasonable or not. Edit: Maybe I should mention that there are plenty of things a docto…

Would you trust an astrologer to validate another astrologer's data?

Do you seriously place as little faith in climate scientists as you would in an astrologer?

Obviously it's not as mature a field as, say, medicine, but refusing to believe that any of the results are at all valid is just being wilfully ignorant.

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