Live data from Hacker News

Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

fivethirtyeight.com

11–20 of 61 posts

Re: Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

#11
post #4

It never occurred to me that optimized buzzer timing was such a big part of Watson's dominance. Kinda takes some of the romance out of it.

I think there's more to it than that.

I actually played Watson on the Jeopardy set they filmed the Watson episodes on. That "set" was just the auditorium here at IBM Research in NY, and they left the set intact for about six months after taping. Colleagues of mine hosted an academic conference in our building during that time.

Since Watson was on everyone's mind at that point (and we were literally looking at the set for it during people's talks), my colleagues asked the head systems researcher if he could give a special talk at the conference. He graciously accepted, and offered to do a full demonstration. There was only one volunteer from the rest of the conference - I think that if you're not a native English speaker, and not familiar with American pop culture and history, Jeopardy questions can be mystifying - so I gladly volunteered to play.

To answer the obvious question: I lost. Badly. In fact, not only did I lose, I lost a full-cheating version of Jeopardy where the audience (participants from the conference) shouted out answers, and I buzzed in using answers I liked. Not only that, but some of the answers that the audience was shouting were taken from Watson, looking at the readout it showed of candidate answers. (Some of the people were able to immediately recognize the correct answer, even though Watson was unsure of it. But keep in mind Watson came up with those answers.)

I would have lost to even a decent Jeopardy player, so losing to Watson is kind of overkill. But I think I learned a few things about playing Jeopardy, and how the human experience differs from Watson's experience.

I spent almost all of my cycles when the host was asking the question trying to figure out when he would stop talking. That is, I spent the entire question-asking period timing my buzz. I could not think of the answer and time my buzz simultaneously. The few times I thought I did know the answer, I did not know the answer when I buzzed in. I knew I knew the answer. The difference is that I did not have the answer in mind when buzzing, just that given a few seconds - which you get, by the basic protocols of the game - I could come up with the answer. I think other human players are the same: they spend the question-asking period timing their buzz, and are going by an intuitive feel for whether or not they know the answer. The actual answer recall does not happen until after they buzz in.

Watson is inverted. It only buzzes in when it is confident of its answer. In that sense, the game is not just about Watson winning the buzzer timing. Watson definitely could win every buzzer, but then it would lose the game; it's not accurate enough to get every question correct. So if Watson won every buzzer, it would answer incorrectly many times, and ultimately lose.

With that in mind, I hope it restores some of the romance. During the test run, the category was "Presidential Rhymes" with the clue "Barack's pack animals". Watson answered "Obama's llama's" immediately. Me and the other contestant just stared at each other, slack-jawed. I had seen it done on tv, but there was something far more immediate and impressive, since the head systems designer was ten feet from me, and the Power7 systems just a few rooms away.

Re: Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

#12
post #4

It never occurred to me that optimized buzzer timing was such a big part of Watson's dominance. Kinda takes some of the romance out of it.

Something I never liked about jeopardy is that you can't buzz in at any time. I played on a trivia team at the high school level, and most questions were structured like: "This American architect, born in 1867, is known for works such as the Robie House, the Guggenheim Museum, and Fallingwater." So they typically feed you information from least to most well known, and you can buzz in at any time. This rewards players…

They made it that way on purpose, so it's more entertaining for the audience. If you could buzz in early, the players would almost always buzz in before Alex Trebek finished reading the question, which makes it less interesting for the audience.

With the wait-to-buzz-in rule, the audience gets an chance to understand and maybe think of the answer before the contestants speak.

Re: Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

#13
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something I never liked about jeopardy is that you can't buzz in at any time. I played on a trivia team at the high school level, and most questions were structured like: "This American architect, born in 1867, is known for works such as the Robie House, the Guggenheim Museum, and Fallingwater." So they typically feed you information from least to most well known, and you can buzz in at any time. This rewards players…

They made it that way on purpose, so it's more entertaining for the audience. If you could buzz in early, the players would almost always buzz in before Alex Trebek finished reading the question, which makes it less interesting for the audience. With the wait-to-buzz-in rule, the audience gets an chance to understand and maybe think of the answer before the contestants speak.

I'd contend that the "signal when permitted" minigame makes Jeopardy! more difficult, too, because the part of your brain that arrives at the answer must yield to the part of your brain that tenses for a stimulus. I definitely have to switch "modes" between pulling up deeply buried knowledge and rapid reaction "stance", and I noticed this when I played a well-made copy of the show's rules complete with the signaling system.

There's another side, too, which is if folks could signal early, reading fast would become an even stronger optimization. It already is, but at least everybody gets an equal chance the way it is (even if they got the answer fairly quickly from reading the clue while ignoring Trebek).

Re: Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

#14
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something I never liked about jeopardy is that you can't buzz in at any time. I played on a trivia team at the high school level, and most questions were structured like: "This American architect, born in 1867, is known for works such as the Robie House, the Guggenheim Museum, and Fallingwater." So they typically feed you information from least to most well known, and you can buzz in at any time. This rewards players…

With Jeopardy questions, you'd buzz in at "This American architect..."

That's what I did in quiz bowl in high school. Calculated risk, but one that's likely to pay off.

Re: Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

#15
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something I never liked about jeopardy is that you can't buzz in at any time. I played on a trivia team at the high school level, and most questions were structured like: "This American architect, born in 1867, is known for works such as the Robie House, the Guggenheim Museum, and Fallingwater." So they typically feed you information from least to most well known, and you can buzz in at any time. This rewards players…

They made it that way on purpose, so it's more entertaining for the audience. If you could buzz in early, the players would almost always buzz in before Alex Trebek finished reading the question, which makes it less interesting for the audience. With the wait-to-buzz-in rule, the audience gets an chance to understand and maybe think of the answer before the contestants speak.

You could allow contestants to buzz in as soon as possible, but have the system wait until Alex has finished reading the answer (remember, it's Jeopardy! so the contestant gives the question ;-P) before it indicates which player buzzed in first. Yes, there might be an audible clicking sound in the background while he's talking, but it would make the game more about speed of recall rather than hand-eye coordination.

Re: Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

#16
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something I never liked about jeopardy is that you can't buzz in at any time. I played on a trivia team at the high school level, and most questions were structured like: "This American architect, born in 1867, is known for works such as the Robie House, the Guggenheim Museum, and Fallingwater." So they typically feed you information from least to most well known, and you can buzz in at any time. This rewards players…

They made it that way on purpose, so it's more entertaining for the audience. If you could buzz in early, the players would almost always buzz in before Alex Trebek finished reading the question, which makes it less interesting for the audience. With the wait-to-buzz-in rule, the audience gets an chance to understand and maybe think of the answer before the contestants speak.

Yep. The reason why Jeopardy works so well is because the contestants are all trivia gods, so they all know the answer most of the time. The audience thinks that the difficulty is in the trivia, because that's more challenging for us, but it's actually in the buzzer press.

Re: Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

#18
post #15
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They made it that way on purpose, so it's more entertaining for the audience. If you could buzz in early, the players would almost always buzz in before Alex Trebek finished reading the question, which makes it less interesting for the audience. With the wait-to-buzz-in rule, the audience gets an chance to understand and maybe think of the answer before the contestants speak.

You could allow contestants to buzz in as soon as possible, but have the system wait until Alex has finished reading the answer (remember, it's Jeopardy! so the contestant gives the question ;-P) before it indicates which player buzzed in first. Yes, there might be an audible clicking sound in the background while he's talking, but it would make the game more about speed of recall rather than hand-eye coordination.

I think that would just encourage contestants to buzz in immediately, since I imagine that the risk of penalty of not knowing a question pales in comparison to the reward of getting to answer for a strong contestant. You effectively eliminate the only downside of buzzing early since contestants would get to hear the entire question regardless.

Re: Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

#19
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it definitely wasn't as impressive as it seemed on the surface. A much better test of Watson's performance would have been QuizBowl, where contestants can buzz in while the question is still being read.

They also restricted the clues compared to what they would normally have - no audio/video Daily Doubles. I think there might have been some other restrictions, but I don't recall the exact rules. I think they didn't allow any of the "special" categories they sometimes have. They also did some other tricks, like giving Watson a parsed ASCII stream of the clue, rather than making it see the screen and parse it out. I t…

So, to be fair, they should have added a delay to the "you can buzz in now signal" to match the slowness of the human visual processing system. Without that, if all players knew the answer Watson won every time.

Also, the ASCII feed should have matched human reading speed.

Re: Why Ken Jennings’s ‘Jeopardy’ Streak Is Nearly Impossible to Break

#20
post #4

It never occurred to me that optimized buzzer timing was such a big part of Watson's dominance. Kinda takes some of the romance out of it.

Something I never liked about jeopardy is that you can't buzz in at any time. I played on a trivia team at the high school level, and most questions were structured like: "This American architect, born in 1867, is known for works such as the Robie House, the Guggenheim Museum, and Fallingwater." So they typically feed you information from least to most well known, and you can buzz in at any time. This rewards players…

This is a TV show - the entire point is to make it fun for the audience. The audience is what brings in ad dollars, which pays not only the winnings of the contestants, but costs to run the show, and of course, the profit.
Post reply on HN