Indeed, what is programming talent? What is a 'good' programmer? What is a 10x rock star? These notions are similarly ill defined. I can think of at least 3 formulations of 'talent':
1. A developer who can craft an exquisite solution to a problem using the patterns of the domain and/or the idioms of the language.
2. A developer who puts in Heroic efforts to produce a lot of code in a short amount of timing, to meet business objectives.
3. A developer who is 'smart and gets things done'.
One can poke holes into any of these formulations; is the exquisite solution delivered in a reasonable amount of time? Is the quickly delivered code maintainable and extensible or a maintenance nightmare? Does the smart and get things done guy leave a spaghetti trail in his wake?
In the end, I think we've all noticed that some people tend to simply accomplish more, with less issues and drama than others. Is this real? Or simply navel gazing? I tend to think it's real.
Edit: spelling