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What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

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Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#91
post #73
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it would be more precise if I had prepended "local" every time I said "conservation of momentum" above. With that clarification, I'm happy to stand by what I've said.

"local" seems like a fairly large assumption for something hypothesized by at least some to work through quantum mechanics, of which a central tenant is non-locality. In fact, given the consistency of qm experimental results over the past 50 or so years, it seems entirely plausible to think that it would be a field of study which could upend classical physics. All that being said I agree extreme skepticism is healthy…

Except the non-locality of QM is irrelevant to a device that is apparently a closed cavity. Simply because the same word is used does not mean the underlying concept is sufficiently similar in both contexts to be relevant.

Local momentum conservation is foundational to all of physics: it is embedded in Newton's laws, and you can't get much more foundational than that. As such, if anything violates it the degree of "extraordinary" would be beyond anything ever seen. Far beyond superluminal nuetrinos.

So the previous posters are correct: momentum conservation, which is generally used to mean "local momentum conservation", is as deeply foundational to physics as Newton's laws, and the kind of observable-only-by-statistical-inference non-locality seen in QM is not known to have any impact on it.

As such, it would be earth-shaking at the deepest possible levels of physics if this result were correct. That does not mean it is wrong--although that is certainly my bet and that of virtually every other working physcist--but it's important not to understate what a big deal it would be, because understanding that opens up alternative ideas regarding how to test it.

This is neither arrogance nor dismissal, but an understanding that anything that violates local momentum conservation, via QM or anything else, and also lets the rest of physcis sail blithely on, manifesting no measureable effect of any kind on any of the millions of diverse and precise experiments that have been performed, is astonishingly implausible.

Could it happen? Sure. But it's really easy for laypeople to radically underestimate the implausibility of such claims, as was done all the time in the cold fusion community.

Nor does reproduction of the effect say anything very much about either the underlying theory (such as it is) or the actual cause. Lots of things can create forces of micronewtons, and given how utterly implausible the claim is, most physicists are starting with a prior barely above epsilon. As such, the amount of evidence required to update our belief to something close to unity is going to be huge. Laypeople, who start with an unreasonably large prior because they are ignorant of how fine-tuned such novel physics would have to be to never show up anywhere else, will require less evidence.

Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#92
post #61
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the longest time, everyone thought that the earth was flat as well until this heretic said, nope it is flat. Challenging group think and being skeptical is part of being a proper scientist. Perhaps they end up learning something entirely new from all of this.

The heretic, Galileo Galilei, claimed that the earth revolved around the sun instead of the sun revolving around the earth. That the earth is (almost) spherical was known since antiquity.

I thought his name was Copernicus.

Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#93
post #38
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you serious? If you had the power, you would actively prevent NASA from doing these experiments and trying to falsify the claims? I could somehow understand that if the experiments cost a billion dollars. But they don't. Any Europa mission is in no way related to nor threatened by these drive tests.

Yes, actually. Every dollar that NASA spends has the potential to accomplish something for humanity. To my eye, even the vast potential benefits of this technology are more than washed out by the tremendously low probability that it will turn out to be real. I absolutely do not want NASA to give money to every person who comes to their door claiming to have a recipe for a warp drive. There has to be some threshold of…

You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but I think NASA has struck an appropriate balance between skepticism and curiosity. After results claiming thrust from the EM drive were given by paid lab testing and a Chinese study, NASA threw a miniscule amount of effort at this, expecting it to fail. It generated positive results, so they threw in a hair more. This will continue until either very rigorous, well-funded studies duplicate these results, or they are invalidated at a lower- or mid-tier levels of rigor.

There should be a reasonable threshold at which we are willing to test ideas that would upset traditional scientific knowledge, or we risk displaying the mental rigidity which we mock in the religious and scientific orthodoxy of ages past. Obviously the perfect candidate idea for such testing would be one in which a sound theory was already present, but there have been examples of profound changes in theory that came about due to strange observations - consider the motion of Mercury and higher-temperature superconductors.

I too am excited about the possibility of life in our solar system, and I hope NASA gets probes to Europa, Titan and Enceladus as soon as possible, but these projects don't have to compete. The small amount of funding this has received so far is unlikely to be the difference between go and no-go for life-seeking probes.

Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#94
post #56

I've some direct experience with a similar situation. I can speak to the issue of "why hasn't spaceX or other major company experimented with this". During the "Cold Fusion" era, when Pons & Fleishman had claimed to develop room temperature fusion, I worked for a major US lab doing superconductor research. (We invented the first superconductors that operated at liquid nitrogen temperatures-- Y1B2C3O) While fusion isn…

Boeing's Phantom Works reportedly tested the EMDrive years ago [1] and nothing came out of it. Edit: Thank you nether.

[1] http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-02/06/emdrive-and-c...

Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#95
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, actually. Every dollar that NASA spends has the potential to accomplish something for humanity. To my eye, even the vast potential benefits of this technology are more than washed out by the tremendously low probability that it will turn out to be real. I absolutely do not want NASA to give money to every person who comes to their door claiming to have a recipe for a warp drive. There has to be some threshold of…

Given the small amounts involved, it's worth the money just to figure out the source of experimental error. NASA isn't giving money to random kooks off the street, these are actual physicists in labs doing the work.

Steuard is too polite to point this out himself, so I will do it for him: he is a physics professor. That the amount of money is small is a measure of how incredibly unlikely he thinks any useful result would come from the experiments.

Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#96
post #73
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it would be more precise if I had prepended "local" every time I said "conservation of momentum" above. With that clarification, I'm happy to stand by what I've said.

"local" seems like a fairly large assumption for something hypothesized by at least some to work through quantum mechanics, of which a central tenant is non-locality. In fact, given the consistency of qm experimental results over the past 50 or so years, it seems entirely plausible to think that it would be a field of study which could upend classical physics. All that being said I agree extreme skepticism is healthy…

Quantum Mechanics is weird but it's not magic. One of the most unintuitive effects is entanglement.

Almost all the entanglements and weird things of Quantum Mechanics are local. The electrons in a molecule have weird antisymmetric properties that mix different configurations (the easy picture is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resonance_(chemistry) the mathematics is more complicated).

You can entangle a few particles and move them at long distance, but if the particles hit another particle, the entanglement goes away. (You can transfer the entanglement, in very specific setups, but it's difficult, usually you get decoherence.)

I don't know a way to transfer a lot of momentum form one point to a very distant point using entanglement.

For example, you can put a box of particles in a rocket and each particle in that box in entangled with a particle that is in a box in Earth. When you measure the momentum of the particle in the rocket, it "changes" the momentum in the particle in Earth, so you can think that some momentum was "transferred". (This is not technically correct, but is a good enough approximation.)

The problem is that the momentum that you measure is in a random distribution, and half of the time you'll "transfer" momentum in one direction to make your rocket faster and the other half of the times the momentum will go in the other direction to make your rocket slower. It's impossible to transfer information using entanglement, and it's impossible to select the direction of the "transferred" momentum, in particular because that could be used to transfer information.

Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it take fifty years? This isn' the 1800s where it takes a half century for flush toilets to catch on. We're in an era where things go from laboratory to ubiquitous inside of a decade.

This is less like flush toilets and more like computers. It took nearly 50 years for the first computers to sit in consumer's home offices. It took time for the technology to be miniaturized and cheap enough to make its way to consumer electronics. Or even cell phones. We were using radio signals in hand held devices for nearly 50 years before a vast majority of consumers were walking around with phones in their pock…

If this were proven true, there would be a completely manic gold-rush of capital into the area. Flying cars that operate at less than 1/10th the energy of cars on the road now?

This would very quickly move from "let's wait for NASA to do more tests" to "let's beat NASA to the test."

That's all assuming it's real, of course. I'd bet against it.

Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#98
post #56

I've some direct experience with a similar situation. I can speak to the issue of "why hasn't spaceX or other major company experimented with this". During the "Cold Fusion" era, when Pons & Fleishman had claimed to develop room temperature fusion, I worked for a major US lab doing superconductor research. (We invented the first superconductors that operated at liquid nitrogen temperatures-- Y1B2C3O) While fusion isn…

Boeing's Phantom Works reportedly tested the EMDrive years ago [1] and nothing came out of it. Edit: Thank you nether. [1] http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-02/06/emdrive-and-c...

[deleted]

Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Realize that this is the exact same level of verification as superliminal neutrinos, except at a vastly decreased level of rigor. At this point the overwhelmingly likely explanation is that there is some phenomenon at work which we don't understand or haven't properly accounted for, not that there is new physics afoot.

Really what's the difference. Either we can fit it in to our models or we have to change the models. It always bothers me that so many people in the scientific community speak of our scientific models of the physical world as if they were truth itself. All models are flawed and only imitate reality by definition. We must accept that our models are only a glimpse of the real thing. We barely manage to grok our own pla…

> Why can't we admit that what we currently know only seems impressive to a few moderately advanced apes but in reality it is likely only tiny drop in the bucket compared to the knowledge our universe holds.

Because that would be to deny without any reason but empty speculation that what a small group of scientists have done in the past 300 years is a singularly impressive achievement, adding more to human understanding of the universe than far large groups have done over far longer spans of time.

People don't know very much aren't impressed by what the discipline of publicly testing ideas by systematic observation, controlled experiment, and Bayesian inference has taught us about the world, and they radically under-estimate how much we know, instead comparing the vast and wonderous extent of our actual knowlege with their own fantasies of what might be known one day.

I look back at the science of the 1800's and I'm impressed by how much they knew, how much they did. I expect scientists a century or two from now will look back and think the same of us, while the ignorant people of their day will dismiss the thoughts and judgements of scientists of that time as nothing much compared to the fantasies of the ignorant.

Re: What we know about the EmDrive and Cannae Drive

#100
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to physicist Harold White, leader of the NASA Eagleworks team, it can't simply be a "photon rocket": The NASASpaceflight.com group has given consideration to whether the experimental measurements of thrust force were the result of an artifact. Despite considerable effort within the NASASpaceflight.com forum to dismiss the reported thrust as an artifact, the EM Drive results have yet to be falsified. After c…

Yes, sure, they've measured something surprising. I have no reason to doubt that. A few years ago, the enormously more respected folks at the OPERA experiment were willing to announce that they had seemingly detected neutrinos moving faster than light. Despite this coming from a large group of scientists with top-notch credentials, that was immediately doubted by almost the entire physics community, and sure enough,…

The neutrino phenomenon was caused by a calculation error regarding GR and was miniscule magnitudes of error. I'm genuinely curious how a measurable force is a calculation error. Notwithstanding that whether or not it can be explained it works. The measured forces are so substantial that even a high school student with high school apparatus would notice them, it's hardly caused by a wobbly cable in precision equipment.
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