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Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

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31–40 of 95 posts

Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#31
post #2

> [combination of things necessary for an AI to become a threat to humanity] Sound reasonable to you? Me either The question isn't whether it "sounds reasonable". If there is even a 2% chance of that happening, we need to consider it. Anything that can end humanity is worth considering even if it is unlikely. > Even if this were the case, there is absolutely no reason to believe that, by virtue of running on a comput…

I think the list is misleading and is not necessary for an AI to be dangerous.

>It has an “I,” a sense of self distinct from others.

I deny this is required for a program to be dangerous.

>It has the intellectual capacity to step outside of the boundaries of its intended purpose and programming to form radically new goals for itself (the “I”).

Deny this as well; even carrying out programmed goals can be harmful. In the words of Superintelligence (copied from https://intelligence.org/2015/01/08/brooks-searle-agi-voliti...):

>[W]e cannot blithely assume that a superintelligence with the final goal of calculating the decimals of pi (or making paperclips, or counting grains of sand) would limit its activities in such a way as not to infringe on human interests. An agent with such a final goal would have a convergent instrumental reason, in many situations, to acquire an unlimited amount of physical resources and, if possible, to eliminate potential threats to itself and its goal system.

>It has access to resources on a global scale to carry out the plan.

This sounds reasonable. As http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/04/07/no-physical-substrate-n... points out, humans have made billions anonymously, just by being connected to the internet. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k4h/request_for_concrete_ai_takeover... gives some ways an AI could takeover.

Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#32
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But if we make machines that are smarter than us and have desires It is a hypothesis that human desires - the conscious processes involved in thinking "I want such-and-such" - influence human behavior. Consciousness is not whatsoever a solved problem, and it may be that we are just complex, deterministic automatons whose consciousness and desires are caused by our behavior (like the steam produced by an engine), ra…

> and it may be that we are just complex, deterministic automatons whose consciousness and desires are caused by our behavior (like the steam produced by an engine), rather than causing it. Then explain that we are talking about it.

I'm not sure I understand your point. Computers communicate with one another constantly. There certainly does seem to be something different about us, but I've yet to see any scientific or philosophical proof that our self-awareness is necessarily involved with our intelligence or behavior. There's a good deal of philosophical literature around this idea ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophical_zombie ), and virtually no scientific explanation of consciousness.

I grant of course that this may not be a terribly useful way for human beings to view themselves, and it is quite contrary to popular belief, but for all that it could still be true.

Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#33
post #17
post #12

I read "Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom, essentially on the recommendation of Elon Musk (he tweeted about it). It talks about the dangers of strong AI and possible paths to it, and how humans can mitigate its effects. The only reason I read past the beginning is because in the preface he says: "This book is likely to be seriously mistaken in a number of ways". So at least he's intellectually honest. I believe he's…

Why do you feel we will not build "Strong" AI? We know AI as smart as humans can theoretically exist, because humans exist, so intelligence is possible. Is there a reason to think that humans are near the upper limit of what's possible? If not, why can't we build something significantly smarter than us?

Mainly because I haven't seen any evidence. Special purpose AI is not evidence. That point is debatable, but most AI practitioners agree; it's only some technologists like Elon Musk et. al. that seem to be extrapolating.

Sure, humans exist, and we can already make humans by combining DNA from a man and a woman :) That method does not lead to superhuman intelligence.

What makes you think we could devise some other method to make human intelligence? Have we demonstrated any progress toward building humans?

What we have demonstrated is extremely rapid progress in making computers and software systems that can take in a huge amount of data and make decisions that look intelligent (but are still brittle and trivially broken by humans). I think this path will lead us to many great things in the future, and it will have a lot of risks that are more important to think about then whether computers will overthrow us.

Computers and humans are completely different things. If you watch a child grow up, this is obvious. A child can do things that are impossible for a computer, while it can't speak, read, or write. A computer can do things that no human could ever do. They are qualitatively different.

I also want to bring up a related point: AI advocates always seem to bring up "simulating the universe" on a computer. Nobody has shown that this is possible. In fact most evidence suggests it is unlikely. The universe is not a computer.

Computers, human brains, and the universe are just different things, and I see a deluge of sloppy thinking connecting them. There are of course relationships between them, but they should be made precise. To do so often require considerable technical expertise, like the author of this article apparently has.

As always, Peter Thiel has a great contrarian viewpoint in his book "Zero to One". The future is in human + machine intelligence. They both do different things, and the sum of them is very powerful. I predict this will be the story for the next 50 years, and general AI / strong AI won't enter into it.

Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#34
All this hype about the coming AI menace seems like old fears about new technology, like the 19th century fear of the explosion of printed material exhuasting and destroying children's minds.

We still don't know how to create a human level general intelligence and it may be far more difficult than we think. I suspect that the pace of brain/mind research will be tied in with AI research and the boundary between AI and the human mind will blur before general AI has a chance to take over. We will be augmenting our own intelligence in step with AI progress.

Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#35
I don't fear "AI". What I fear is AI being used as a replacement for human judgment or as a justification for greed and/or bigotry.

We already have this problem, where decisions that should be made by the humans involved are restricted under the "policy" excuse of bureaucracy, blind to the reality of unusual situations that require an exception in the usual routine. I fear AI because it is harder to fight complicated systems. I fear AI because - like the dubious "studies" that came before it, it will become a tool to obfuscate and hide bias and prejudice.

Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#36
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you feel we will not build "Strong" AI? We know AI as smart as humans can theoretically exist, because humans exist, so intelligence is possible. Is there a reason to think that humans are near the upper limit of what's possible? If not, why can't we build something significantly smarter than us?

Just to play Devil's Advocate, not because I believe this: We can, and do, create machines that are faster than humans, and it is reasonable to assume that eventually computers can be created that have capacity and connectivity larger than humans. But that doesn't prove that the result will be as intelligent as humans, let alone more intelligent, because intelligence is clearly more than just speed and capacity. Edit…

>Exactly what intelligence is, is still not known, and it is quite possible that we will need an algorithmic breakthrough to create something equivalent to human minds.

Let's assume this is true.

>And even if that happens, making that thing faster and bigger than human minds may turn out not to result in superintelligence -- that would just be another similar assumption as the first. So it might need yet another algorithmic breakthrough to create superintelligence, and it is possible that neither humans nor human-equivalent AIs will be able to make that breakthrough.

This seems unlikely to be true. Imagine we have a program that is as smart as the human brain. It's running on hardware a million times as fast, though. So at the very least, it can think in one day what a human can think in a million days. Even if it's restricted to human-level intelligence, it should still be far more effective than a human. This is even without considering self-modifications.

Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#37
post #10

It seems most people who take a position against the feasibility of machine superintelligence are basically making an argument-from-lack-of-imagination: "I can't think up a plausible way that bad things could happen, therefore bad things won't happen." This is then backed up by an argument-from-authority: "And I've been in this field for X decades, so you should trust my ability to imagine this kind of thing." We hav…

I completely agree with your points.

It's strange to me to think as humans we will remain at the top of the food chain forever. As such, it would seem a fault of our genetic makeup thinking nothing would capable of knocking us off that top rung of the evolutionary ladder.

It's like we can't fathom building something that would undermine our own existence, or downplay the notion that AI would have some sort of bad intentions since we built it.

Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#38

It becomes much easier to understand the AGI threat if you consider whole brain emulations -- human minds running at superhuman speed on silicon. Hollywood has made it obvious, if it wasn't already, the serious implications of that type of development. Whole brain emulations also make it clear that the issue has nothing at all to do with human values: a human superintelligence would be a catastrophic risk to humanity…

Actually, a whole brain emulation would, at least for some generations after the first working model, run slower, not faster, than an organic brain.

Bear in mind that without whole brain emulation (or nanomedicine sufficiently advanced to confer biological immortality, which is an even considerably more difficult engineering challenge), you're going to die. So are all your family and friends. Everyone you ever cared about.

Being confused about the difference between Hollywood and real life is not harmless.

Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#39
post #15

Instead of going through each of the points made, let me link to some pages that already dealt with many of them. It sounds like all this guy heard was "AI might be dangerous" and decided to rebut that, without looking at the arguments put forward by so-called "doomsayers". Protip: before demolishing any argument, try to find one (or a couple if you have more time) person who makes the argument seriously, instead of…

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Re: Stop Fearing Artificial Intelligence

#40
One thing I don't see discussed much in these superintelligence/singularity scenarios, is the possibility that there is an upper limit to intelligence. Maybe it simply isn't possible to be much smarter than what we already are. So maybe we build AIG, but even with all its smarts it can't improve beyond - say - Einstein level (or what have you).

But surely I ca't be the first to make that suggestion, so who has discussed this possibility?

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