Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
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Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
1–10 of 31 posts
Re: Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
#2It is an interesting analysis. I've followed Google's numbers pretty closely since I left in 2010 to track trends from the outside that had started becoming apparent on the inside. Basically there is a limit on how "good" you can be at search advertising, and other companies are relentlessly investing there and so as Microsoft, for example, has quarters of growing ad value both in CPC and volume. Google has declining CPC and growing paid distribution costs. It is often hard to hold a technological edge without moving the bar forward, and while Google was way out ahead before, now they get fewer and fewer gains with the investments they do. That squeezes margins and that results in focus (good) and conservative management (not so good).
What is really spot on in the article is that when the 'luster' of being a growth company comes off, the stock feels it disproportionately. And as RSUs are the retention package of choice your "retention bonus" gets smaller as the stock takes a hit. That unlocks hand cuffs and people who are smart and aggressive opt to try something with more risk and a better potential reward.
It really is true that nothing is forever, but I know there is always the tendency to operate as if it is. Looking forward to the next wave.
Re: Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
#3i would say i felt similar lackluster when i interviewed (engineering position) there a few years ago. probably one of the worst interviews i've had, completely mechanical. literally all human emotion removed from it. the interview consisted of purely how well one did on the 5 sessions of solving problems. not a single session even bothered to take into account personality. the last interviewer explained they did't want to introduce any sort of bias hence the reasoning for the robotic interviews.
was pretty sad. i love search/gmail/maps but there isn't much coming out of google thats pushing the envelope these days for me.
once again the story of david and goliath... infinite growth is not sustainable...
Re: Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
#4I'm not sure I agree with the author's analysis on compensation.
While RSUs at a large company don't have the growth potential of a startup, Google, Microsoft, etc still seem to be the smarter choice for compensation-minded engineers.
And of course the author also ignores the CEO change that occurred at Microsoft in 2000, and the reawakening that has occurred after his departure in 2014.
Re: Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
#5It is an interesting analysis. I've followed Google's numbers pretty closely since I left in 2010 to track trends from the outside that had started becoming apparent on the inside. Basically there is a limit on how "good" you can be at search advertising, and other companies are relentlessly investing there and so as Microsoft, for example, has quarters of growing ad value both in CPC and volume. Google has declining…
> Google has declining CPC ... now they get fewer and fewer gains with the investments they do.
Keep in mind that the declining CPC is coupled with increased revenue, caused by the amount of ad inventory they're moving. So, your second statement is not supported by your first.
(disclaimer: googler, but not in ads or anything related)
Re: Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
#6i would say i felt similar lackluster when i interviewed (engineering position) there a few years ago. probably one of the worst interviews i've had, completely mechanical. literally all human emotion removed from it. the interview consisted of purely how well one did on the 5 sessions of solving problems. not a single session even bothered to take into account personality. the last interviewer explained they did't w…
> not a single session even bothered to take into account personality.
So you'd prefer that the interviewers set up situations for unconscious biases to take hold? That would hurt the quality of engineering at Google.
Re: Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
#7i would say i felt similar lackluster when i interviewed (engineering position) there a few years ago. probably one of the worst interviews i've had, completely mechanical. literally all human emotion removed from it. the interview consisted of purely how well one did on the 5 sessions of solving problems. not a single session even bothered to take into account personality. the last interviewer explained they did't w…
Here's the rationale:
Re: Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
#8i would say i felt similar lackluster when i interviewed (engineering position) there a few years ago. probably one of the worst interviews i've had, completely mechanical. literally all human emotion removed from it. the interview consisted of purely how well one did on the 5 sessions of solving problems. not a single session even bothered to take into account personality. the last interviewer explained they did't w…
> not a single session even bothered to take into account personality. So you'd prefer that the interviewers set up situations for unconscious biases to take hold? That would hurt the quality of engineering at Google.
What if the "robotic" questions themselves have a bias? They almost certainly do. (They've already turned off people who don't like robotic questions. :P) Demographic diversity is just as important as creative/intellectual diversity - I think diversity of hires requires diversity of questions. It requires some bad interviews, but it creates some great interviews. I've had interviews and been interviewed in both settings; no regrets. White male, though, so hard to say.
Re: Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
#9Every time someone draws historical parallels for tech businesses I think back to Apple. Remember how the iPhone was repeating Apple's mistake vs Windows in the 80s?
The author happens to find some factors that match Microsoft in the 2000s, but completely ignores the ones that don't.
Re: Google, Microsoft, Stall Points, and Growth
#10I'm not sure I agree with the author's analysis on compensation. While RSUs at a large company don't have the growth potential of a startup, Google, Microsoft, etc still seem to be the smarter choice for compensation-minded engineers. And of course the author also ignores the CEO change that occurred at Microsoft in 2000, and the reawakening that has occurred after his departure in 2014.
That is a good point. History is going to remember Ballmer as one of the worst CEOs in history, though, unlike Jeffrey Skilling or Bernard Ebbers, Ballmer will be remembered for mistakes of omission rather than commission. And the revival of Microsoft should be factored in to a full understanding of the situation.