This was more complicated that I hoped it would beI also hoped that it would be less complicated, but after prototyping a few different options, many of which I mention in the blog post (e.g. a patch to do fd passing, huptime, or running multiple parallel HAProxies), I decided that this was the lowest risk given the engineering constraints that we had. Also I wasn't entirely sure of an implementation plan for how to cleanly do port mappings for the hundreds of services. For example our service provisioning system adds, change, move, or removes services in various Yelp environments dynamically, so the port mapping logic would have to keep sync with that. It is certainly possible but I stand by my concern.
To put this in perspective, I got this working in production at Yelp in about two or three days, and it has not had a single issue since. With this solution we apply some TC rules and some iptables rules once, and then the act of restarting is just a set of TC commands. It solves all of our use cases and does so without significant infrastructure that someone else has to maintain two years from now.
If a month from now HAProxy releases native zero downtime restarts, I don't feel bad about throwing all of this away.