Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil • Hacker News Board

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#51

Post by altcognito » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:22 PM UTC

crdoconnor wrote: post #38

Well, they've moved on a little. In 2009 their plan was to ask for compensation from countries like the US should their use of oil start to fall: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/14/business/energy-environmen...

I think this is the real underlying issue. SA is looking at all this oil inventory, and if their oil ends up going unsold, they lose money in the long run. This may end up being a clearance sale. My guess is that they'll try to seek a maximum price without reigniting the US shale insustry over the next year. That price might be $60/$70.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#52

Post by wahsd » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:25 PM UTC

We should be pushing legislators to dump massive amounts of money into alternative energy and (anther issue that is grossly overlooked) alternative materials research and policy changes.

Even if we were able to sever the ties to oil for energy, it still does nothing for all the various products that are made from oil. I don't most people quite realize how much of basically everything around them is made primarily from oil based products. Heck, you even eat and drink oil based products.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#53

Post by justincormack » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:30 PM UTC

monk_e_boy wrote: post #48

acjohnson55 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this can be (and is) manipulated by government policy and social dynamics. The externalities of the fossil fuel energy binge are becoming increasingly impossible to ignore, which is depressing demand.

Do you think Africa, China, India all think like that? Most of whom are living on or below the poverty line? They'll be driving old put-puts and crappy desel trucks, tractors and cars for tens of years to come. How long before second/third hand electric cars are being exported in tens or hundreds of thousands to these countries? 50 years? No one I know drives a NEW car, and I live in the UK. We all wait for 2nd/3rd h…

Well India has very large kerosene subsidies for the poor, which they are managing to cut because prices have fallen. Replacing these with solar subsidies would make a huge difference, and cut fossil fuel use. And e-rickshaws took off quite fast.

The UK had new car sales of almost 2.5 million last year, ridiculously high, the highest in Europe, thats almost 10% of households bought a new car/

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#54

Post by at-fates-hands » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:30 PM UTC

wcoenen wrote: post #19

venomsnake wrote: post #6

Seems that nobody is getting peak oil right. The rise of the North Dakota shale is the confirmation of that theory. Also Saudi Arabia is doomed. The kingdom will be collateral damage in the poaching war (its not hot, its not cold) ... to hit russia, the US is doing its best to bring Iran back online. US is self sufficient so they don't fear supply crunch, Europe is moving fast with renewable energy ... and we have ni…

> US is self sufficient so they don't fear supply crunch The USA is a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products. At a level of 5 million barrels per day. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mt...

You can also add in the lack of refineries and the number has decreased steadily since the 1980's:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=8_...

It's great we're producing a ton of oil, but if we don't have the capabilities to refine it, I'm not sure what good it does in the long run.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#55

Post by justincormack » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:33 PM UTC

melling wrote: post #25

danieltillett wrote: post #2

... and why do we have to follow? The sooner the world moves away from oil the better.

Haven't we been moving away from oil for at least 40 years, since the U.S. oil crisis in the 1970's? Carter put solar energy in the White House. Are we on the 100 plan to move away from oil?

No, consumption fell in the 1970s and 1980s, but rose again after that, until the 2008 crisis, when it did fall again. But it is higher than the time of the oil shock.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#56

Post by at-fates-hands » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:35 PM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #2

... and why do we have to follow? The sooner the world moves away from oil the better.

To what? Lithium Ion battery production?

That's just as bad as oil, and in some cases worse.

This type of manufacturing process requires tremendous inputs of energy, particularly the forging of materials like steel, aluminum, glass and plastic. Interestingly, lightweight vehicles can sometimes be more energy-intensive to build than heavier cars because lighter metals like aluminum are harder to forge than stainless steel [source: Moon]. Experts estimate that 10 to 20 percent of a vehicle's total lifetime greenhouse gas emissions are released during the manufacturing stage alone

Unfortunately, both nickel-hydride batteries and the newer lithium-ion batteries rely on the mining of nickel, copper and so-called rare earth metals. The production of lithium-ion batteries account for 2 to 5 percent of total lifetime hybrid emissions and nickel-hydride batteries are responsible for higher sulfur oxide emissions, roughly 22 pounds (10 kilograms) per hybrid compared with 2.2 pounds (about 1 kilogram) for a conventional vehicle [sources: Samaras and Burnham et al].

source: http://science.howstuffworks.com/science-vs-myth/everyday-my...

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#57

Post by simonh » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:41 PM UTC

seivan wrote: post #20

josefresco wrote: post #12

Does a documentary or any in-depth information exist for the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology? I found the details of this university fascinating. FTA: Heavily armed guards on land and at sea protect the facility, where unveiled women study and work side by side with men, undisturbed by the religious police who patrol Saudi cities. Research there is aimed at scientific and commercial breakthroughs u…

The irony, when necessary, islamic laws don't apply because you need to do scientific break throughs.

It's not that the law doesn't apply, they just categorise it as a private rather than public space. Most education facilities for girls are the same even if some of the staff are men. I've actualy been there a while back, it's a fantastic facility.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#58

Post by mark_l_watson » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:45 PM UTC

iwwr wrote: post #49

seivan wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The irony, when necessary, islamic laws don't apply because you need to do scientific break throughs.

The bigger headache is keeping those educated people in SA, a country unlikely to reform socially very much to accomodate them, let alone the competition for skilled people in general. The social exclusion of women alone is a great drag on productivity.

You might be underestimating the happiness factor of the SA middle class.

A few years ago two SA college professors hired me to remotely tutor their daughter in computer science. She seemed very content with the status quo and her prospects for a happy life. I have to admit to some surprise about her attitudes, and I realize this is only one data point.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#59

Post by a8da6b0c91d » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:46 PM UTC

IBM wrote: post #9

So the good news is that their intentions seem to be to keep oil prices low for a prolonged period. Was wondering how long they'd keep prices at current levels. Should be a lot of carnage and opportunity for finding bargains once a lot of these over leveraged oil companies start defaulting.

This whole thing is silly. They have no choice but to pump and get as much revenue as they possibly can. They are starved for cash.

OPEC does not really set enforceable quotas and nobody in Saudi plans out oil prices. OPEC is about flying around to five star hotels and taking credit when the oil price is up.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#60

Post by btilly » Mon, Apr 13, 2015, 2:50 PM UTC

Here is my brother's pet theory on why the price of oil fell.

Saudi Arabia wanted the USA to intervene against ISIS. The USA wanted the price of oil the fall to hamper Russia and Venezuela. Russia because they are getting aggressive and doing things in the Ukraine and Syria that we don't like. Venezuela because they are the center of anti-Americanism in South and Central America.

Which is exactly what happened. We bombed ISIS. The price of oil fell. Russia and Venezuela have been hurting.

There will likely never be proof whether this theory is correct. But leadership in both Venezuela and Russia have come out with the same theory. Articles like http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/04/world/middleeast/saudi-ara... make it clear that the USA and Saudi Arabia are playing the geopolitical angle with Russia. And our current efforts to normalize relations with Cuba sure looks to me like an attempt to strip Venezuela's closest ally away from them.