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WSU statistician sues seeking Kansas voting machine paper tapes

kansas.com

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Re: WSU statistician sues seeking Kansas voting machine paper tapes

#11

Post by topkai22 »

topkai22 wrote: post #9
Shivetya wrote: post #6

I was all behind this until a) she only thinks its wrong when Republicans get more votes and b) when it was not localized to a particular area of Kansas but instead claimed it nationwide. as in, how can it be people cannot vote correctly... back to Florida we go

I'm with you on the nationwide aspect- the apparent consistency of the pattern suggests something non-malicious to me. Coordinating a multi-state election fraud would be very hard and disastrous if found out. My SWAG at what might be happening- large precincts end up having long lines, dissuading marginal voters. As a result, dedicated voters, which according to my politics courses tend older and Republican, are disp…

That being said, it sounds like she should have gotten a review of the rolls when she asked after the election.

Re: WSU statistician sues seeking Kansas voting machine paper tapes

#13

Post by ubernostrum »

Shivetya wrote: post #6

I was all behind this until a) she only thinks its wrong when Republicans get more votes and b) when it was not localized to a particular area of Kansas but instead claimed it nationwide. as in, how can it be people cannot vote correctly... back to Florida we go

From the article:

"The pattern could be voter fraud or a demographic trend that has not been picked up by extensive polling, she said."

So it seems like there are multiple possible explanations being investigated for the apparent discrepancy, and the data will be helpful in figuring out which explanation or mix of explanations is correct.

(though there is probably also some snark in that -- the current Kansas Secretary of State, a Republican, campaigned heavily on a platform of forcing voter ID and other requirements to combat alleged voter fraud, so painting him as being opposed to investigations when there's a discrepancy in favor of his party is a neat little jab)

Re: WSU statistician sues seeking Kansas voting machine paper tapes

#14

Post by mikeash »

Shivetya wrote: post #6

I was all behind this until a) she only thinks its wrong when Republicans get more votes and b) when it was not localized to a particular area of Kansas but instead claimed it nationwide. as in, how can it be people cannot vote correctly... back to Florida we go

I don't see anything that indicates she only thinks it's wrong when Republicans get the benefit. All I see is that it just so happens that the anomaly in question favors Republicans. Is there some similar effect that favors Democrats that's being ignored?

Re: WSU statistician sues seeking Kansas voting machine paper tapes

#15

Post by strictnein »

I don't understand this point:

> "Republican primary results showing strong statistical evidence of election manipulation in Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, Ohio, Oklahoma, Alabama, Louisiana, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Kentucky"

Primaries are crazy. There is very low turnout overall, so a few very motivated candidate campaigns or groups can really swing them and since many of those groups operate on the local level, they can cause noticeable blips.

In general, statistically weird things happen during elections, because there are so many possibilities for weird things to happen. For instance, there were around 60 precincts in Philadelphia that didn't record a single Romney vote. Those precincts represented over 19,000 votes, and on the surface that would appear almost statistically impossible. But it isn't really indicative of anything and can be explained by looking at the demographics of those areas.

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