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Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

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Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#21

I disagree with the article because so many of these "unicorns" (yet another term underlining the neoteny and magical thinking of the Valley) aren't building the future. Building the future can pay off at VC-acceptable levels in the long term, but does not consist of huge-in-four-years-or-dead gambits. It's true that, in the Valley, burn rate doesn't much matter. Your one job as a VC-funded startup CEO is to keep inv…

Isn't the one job of a startup CEO to keep customers happy? Pandering to VCs to the detriment of customers seems like a surefire can't miss recipe for failure. Compare the biggest exits with the biggest disasters and you'll find that's the main thing that differentiates them.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#22
The thing I'd like the HN crowd to take away from the article is that spending money is fine if its being done prudently (or even what some might deem a little recklessly) to grow or build an asset. And in fact, if you have the rare ability to create value out of cash, you should do so. Being profitable is comparatively easy.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#23

I disagree with the article because so many of these "unicorns" (yet another term underlining the neoteny and magical thinking of the Valley) aren't building the future. Building the future can pay off at VC-acceptable levels in the long term, but does not consist of huge-in-four-years-or-dead gambits. It's true that, in the Valley, burn rate doesn't much matter. Your one job as a VC-funded startup CEO is to keep inv…

Isn't the one job of a startup CEO to keep customers happy? Pandering to VCs to the detriment of customers seems like a surefire can't miss recipe for failure. Compare the biggest exits with the biggest disasters and you'll find that's the main thing that differentiates them.

VCs pay the bills and call the shots. In a not-yet-profitable startup, customers do neither by definition.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#24

I disagree with the article because so many of these "unicorns" (yet another term underlining the neoteny and magical thinking of the Valley) aren't building the future. Building the future can pay off at VC-acceptable levels in the long term, but does not consist of huge-in-four-years-or-dead gambits. It's true that, in the Valley, burn rate doesn't much matter. Your one job as a VC-funded startup CEO is to keep inv…

I am not sure why you get downvoted so much for common sense polite opinions ...

Someone speaking in not so flattering terms about an industry (vc based growth startups) that this site caters to... it isn't hard to understand why they get downvotted. I personally like to read his comments on these kinds of threads. voice of reason and all that

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#25

I disagree with the article because so many of these "unicorns" (yet another term underlining the neoteny and magical thinking of the Valley) aren't building the future. Building the future can pay off at VC-acceptable levels in the long term, but does not consist of huge-in-four-years-or-dead gambits. It's true that, in the Valley, burn rate doesn't much matter. Your one job as a VC-funded startup CEO is to keep inv…

Isn't the one job of a startup CEO to keep customers happy? Pandering to VCs to the detriment of customers seems like a surefire can't miss recipe for failure. Compare the biggest exits with the biggest disasters and you'll find that's the main thing that differentiates them.

Customers increase your revenues and your costs. If you're making a play that's long-term by necessity and will be running at a loss for a while, then customer acquisition actually speeds up your burn.

On the other hand, VCs determine: whether your company can raise money, whether your competitors get funding, what your acquisition/exit options are, and what kind of job you personally will get after leaving the company (one way or another).

Also, VCs are a small set of people who all know each other and in which one voice can end not just your job or company but your career. Customers are a large set of people where one might get pissed off and write a bad Yelp review.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#26
post #17

I stopped reading when he said something about simple algebra proving his point, and then posted some nonsensical equation that involved the concept of "milestones per month" or something like that. For those of us that lived through the first round of internet/investor blowhards and shady math[1] this style of article is depressingly familiar. Although at least now when I read this kind of nonsense no trees are kill…

"internet/investor blowhards and shady math"

Exactly this.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#27
post #5

This is not a quality article. Presumably, the author is responding to Marc Andreessen's comments here: http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-andreessen-on-startup-bu... However, the author has ignored the qualifiers and substance of Marc's comments. Marc specifically said, "behind the scenes, they're plowing through that money either on marketing, overhead, or some other expense, which results in high burn rates." Mar…

> Marc is talking about companies like Pets.com blowing wads of cash on Superbowl ads. He's not talking about a company like Tesla spending a lot of money on battery innovation and other core research. I think Marc knows the difference between the "burn rates" of Pets.com vs Tesla.

Who's to say Tesla is spending their money wisely on battery tech investments? Only time will tell if their battery R&D bets will pay off and if not, perhaps they would have been better off spending that money on Super Bowl advertising.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#28
post #5

This is not a quality article. Presumably, the author is responding to Marc Andreessen's comments here: http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-andreessen-on-startup-bu... However, the author has ignored the qualifiers and substance of Marc's comments. Marc specifically said, "behind the scenes, they're plowing through that money either on marketing, overhead, or some other expense, which results in high burn rates." Mar…

> Marc is talking about companies like Pets.com blowing wads of cash on Superbowl ads. He's not talking about a company like Tesla spending a lot of money on battery innovation and other core research. I think Marc knows the difference between the "burn rates" of Pets.com vs Tesla. Who's to say Tesla is spending their money wisely on battery tech investments? Only time will tell if their battery R&D bets will pay off…

>Only time will tell if their battery R&D bets will pay

My comment was not about an omniscient oracle predicting the future of winners and losers. Yes, Tesla may ultimately fail. We don't know yet.

The article is bad quality because it misrepresents the statements by the VCs he's responding to. The three VCs Bill Gurley (Benchmark), Marc Andreessen (AH), Fred Wilson (Union Square Ventures) of all people would absolutely know that you have to spend money to make money. And yes, that would sometimes involve high burn rates.

The author sets up a straw man by implying those VCs are so financially inept that they only look at "burn rate" in a naked and isolated manner with zero context to what each company is doing with the money. Therefore, he's supposedly the lone voice of reason. He thinks he's doing us a favor by explaining to us that "high burn rate" can be good and we're now smarter than those VCs for being englightened with such knowledge. Really?! I think that's insulting the intelligence of HN readers.

Seriously, does anyone think that Marc Andreessen who lived through the zero-profit cash burning days of Netscape before & after the IPO has no clue about stupid-vs-smart high burn rates?

Tesla is burning a lot of cash, and they may fail. If so, they would have gone down in a blaze of glory by way of investing in their technology and betting wrong instead of spending stupid money on distractions such as Superbowl ads.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#29
The article misinterprets the Gurley/Andreessen warning call - high overall burn INDUSTRY WIDE is a fair cause for concern and indicator of sub-optimal investing/operating, both for individual companies and for the VC industry as a whole.

On this article's own terms, if everyone is burning like crazy, then it likely that companies in all four quadrants of the high/low execution/efficiency, which means there is bad burn going on.

If you are a company, this means time for self-reflection: (if you want to take the article’s framework seriously) which quadrant are you in? are you burning cash smartly or dumbly? Do you have framework for determining this? do you really believe your revenue can grow faster than your costs? are there places you can reduce cost? how much are you paying for growth in each of your channels, and which are actually worth it short and long term?

If you are a VC, it is time for portfolio-reflection and (if your portfolio companies are lucky) some hands-on portfolio-company coaching: is a company you funded raising again 6 months later (and was this planned…)? have you asked for a burn report and/or a path to profitability? does the board deck summarize the company’s return on spending and tie results to spending (not necessarily in $$ to $$ numbers, but to users, engagement, etc.)? do your CEOs know their main costs, both fixed and variable?

When $$ floods the early-stage market, both companies and VCs do not ask themselves these types of questions enough, and I think Gurley/Andreessen are trying to signal the industry to get more mindful.

Re: Burn rate says little about whether a startup is on track

#30
The money influx won't stop, it will get worse over the next few years.

Consider the case of Europe. Negative yield curves but trillions in pension funds that need a positive nominal return (5% or so). If they invest even a portion of their portfolios in negative yielding bonds they then need to buy assets with growth potential to even it out, with PE and VC being the most attractive due to their illiquidity ironically.

This isn't like 00 when you could sell NASDAQ and buy US government bonds yielding 6.5%..

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