Live data from Hacker News

The F-35's $400k helmet

washingtonpost.com

121–130 of 136 posts

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#121
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>I used to do development for a DOD project. At the outset of the project, it's often not clear what you're trying to do will even work. It might not even be clear what you should be trying to do. That's interesting, and also scary. I work in IT consulting where it's extremely rare for customers to pay for a professional services project before seeing a proof of concept demonstration of what will be delivered. In fa…

Okay, extrapolate this to a weapons system. You can't expect a company to come up with their own version of the F-35 (which is extremely advanced) with the hope that, if you are satisfied, you'll buy 100 or so. If the government will not go at risk for this, there is no way a company, with vastly fewer resources, is going to do it. I've bid weapons systems and built weapons systems. I can honestly say that you make y…

> Okay, extrapolate this to a weapons system. You can't expect a company to come up with their own version of the F-35 (which is extremely advanced) with the hope that, if you are satisfied, you'll buy 100 or so.

There have been a few instance of advanced weapon systems designed by firms at risk with the hopes of winning sales, but the history of many of those is not conducive to firms repeating the efforts (e.g., the Northrup F-5G/F-20.)

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#122
post #25

It's a very 'agile' project. When will it be done? Don't ask! How much will it cost? Who knows! It's going to be awesome, though! But... you don't have to wait to see how powerful this weapons system is. The F-35 completely took out the Dutch government before one even rolled off the assembly line! Note to governments: when ordering your weapons systems it may be a good idea to get a cost-per-unit quote before signin…

It's more a classic example of the situation that agile methodologies seek to avoid. The biggest thing Agile tries to do is minimize up-front planning. The reason for that is that you have the absolute least knowledge available to inform your decisions at the beginning of a project, so decisions made early on are massively more likely to be poor ones. Worse, you tend to get locked into them because other components i…

"move fast, break things" is not a viable approach to aircraft design.

Lead times on hardware is years. That helmet - how long would it take you to make one? You can't just tell that team don't sweat it, we are going to change requirement on you every two weeks. And you can't tell the jet team wait 3 years for this helmet, then start designing the system.

Military development is so far outside the realm of agile that it make so sense to compare (source: I've done both). The things agile people struggle with I just scoff at. Building large, physical, state of the art systems require planning, requires schedules, requires rework, requires huge teams, requires reams of documentation, and so on. You can't agile your way through that stuff.

Planning doesn't lead to unbounded schedules. It leads to compromise. We have 3 years, 85 million dollars. We need an architecture (assume, say, a flight system for a helicopter, something I have done and delivered). I'm sorry, but very early in you have to choose your processors, distributed network (you need to be fail safe, so multiple redundancies are needed), and more. Then you can buy that, or simulate that; either has costs, but your engineers something to work with. Many have very strict environmental concerns - limited weight, has to fit in this bay, needs radiation hardening, and so on. I can't wait until the last 3 months to make this decision, sorry. Somebody has to build these, deliver them. They need to design and build out the logistics chain - how do I retrofit the existing fleet? HOw do I do repairs? How quickly can I spin up my factory line if you need spares? Do we buy 3x the units you need now, or plan on JIT. This is just one tiny nit of a tiny detail that needs to be decided and tracked. Don't forget instruction manuals, plans to train the maintaince workers, training the workers, training the pilots, building a school for the next people coming through in two years.

I have a meething. I could type for several hours. There is nothing agile about this problem.

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who is going to sit around building this technology in advance of its only customer wanting to buy it? Ok, so that's a fair point, but we don't really owe these companies a viable business model. What happened to funding DARPA and NRL and Lincoln Labs and other places instead of private companies for the research portion? What happened to funding real research instead of funding an amorphous combination of research…

Most government agencies that do 'research' funnel grant and contract money to private entities. Having scientists or building things directly is 'communism' and we're against that. After all, a government employee manages to be both expensive and incompetent, so why not save money by hiring contractors to do their work? /s I think going all in on the F-35 has to do with the some kind of power struggle between the ai…

No, the reason why is because the F-35 is a multi-service and multi-national project. Couple that with large production numbers trying to leverage the advantages from economies of scale, you have a very heavy program. It's strange how many people hold the F-35 as solely the Air Force's fault when considering the branches and countries involved and especially considering how much the STOVL requirement on the part of the Marines compromised the design for all other variants.

The whole F-35 vs A-10 satisfies a lot of tropes; government bureaucracy gone wild, old vs new, Air Force doesn't care about CAS, etc..

The fact is, guided munitions have changed the nature of close air support to the point that most CAS missions have been performed by other aircraft for a number of years now. The A-10 operates well in such asymmetrical environments as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan, but the Air Force concern is towards less permissive environments and having an inventory of planes that can multitask vs single-task. The A-10 has always been known to operate only in permissive environments and MANPADS are an emerging threat (Su-25 in Ukraine, for example). Yes, the A-10 is highly survivable, but there is case to be made in not being hit in the first place.

I would prefer if they kept the A-10 (and to be honest, prefer if they start fielding A-29 or some other LAS/LAAR craft in such permissive environments), but their argument against the A-10 (essentially, "we prefer to keep it, but other aircraft can do a pretty good role and it's cheaper to abandon it") isn't without merit.

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#124
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I used to do development for a DOD project. At the outset of the project, it's often not clear what you're trying to do will even work. It might not even be clear what you should be trying to do. Doesn't this just sound like the contractor promising things it can't deliver? This seems like one of the major endemic problems, especially with ridiculously advanced projects like this. R&D is R&D. Contracts are contract…

The issue is that the U.S.G. is the only buyer for most of this stuff, or tightly controls who else buys it through export restrictions. So if the government wants technology that does X, Y, and Z, it has to pay someone to develop it. Who is going to sit around building this technology in advance of its only customer wanting to buy it? And everyone knows that. A DOD contract isn't a purchase order for 10,000 iPhones.…

[deleted]

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#125

While the technology in this helmet may turn out to be pretty great, I still can't view the project as a whole (The F-35) as more than a failure. It's taken them a lot of time and money to develop a mediocre aircraft, here's Pierre Sprey's opinion on it (Designer of the F-16) "The F-35 was born of an exceptionally dumb piece of airforce PR spin" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxDSiwqM2nw

This one video always comes up in F-35 discussions. I think you have to take his criticisms with a grain of salt. Of course he thinks the F-16 is better - it would have been better than anything that wasn't just like the F-16 with better performance.

Nobody really knows just how much of an advantage stealth technology provides in the real world. It's going to take a few skirmishes with other top-of-the-line aircraft flown by well-trained pilots before anyone can say it's a failure from a performance perspective.

The one place you point to any sort of certain failure is cost. The F-22 was supposed to be the high performance, high end, high cost plane and the F-35 was going to be the high volume, low cost plane to fill in the numbers. Just like the F-15/F-16 pair. Clearly the F-35 is too expensive to qualify as low cost anything, and the more expensive it gets the fewer they're going to sell, which sets off a sort of price spiral.

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#126
post #21

The nice thing about the public scrutiny of the F-35 program, is all this normally-classified capability information that's released out to the public to get them excited about the project. Such level of publicity of cutting edge weapon systems simply didn't exist a decade ago.

It's a smoke screen. In the skunks they are doing a pilotless version.

I doubt that. To take advantage of a drone's capabilities you'd have to start from ground zero. Eventually they'll make a pilotless version the way they have pilotless F-16s. So the newer planes have something to shoot at.

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#127
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Without such technology, war wouldn't be profitable. Without the profits, there would be no incentive to fight." This is without a doubt one of the most backwards ignorant things I have ever read online. It might come as a shock to you, but humans have been killing other humans since the stone age. And, as time has gone on, it's become less and less likely for a person to die violently, at the same time that arms te…

You can tell yourself we fight for honor or pride or all that bullshit, but it's always been about money. The question before going into war has always been: how many lives is it worth? i.e. what's the profit?

OR, maybe it's about being conquered or conqueror.

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#128
post #101
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU won't lose Russia as energy source. Russia would do it already if it could, but half of its budget comes from gas and oil sales (huge majority - to EU). And EU as a whole gets most of energy from outside Russia. It would hurt Russia a lot more than EU. And nuclear war is right off. On the other hand behaving like it's 1939 in modern Europe must be punished, or we will get more wars eventually, so Russia brought it…

>On the other hand behaving like it's 1939 in modern Europe must be punished, and that exactly what Russia did when Western Ukraine nationalist forces grabbed the power in Kiev through the military coup and threatened to do to ethnic Russians what the same nationalist forces did to ethnic Poles in Western Ukraine during WWII http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army#Ethnic... . Their WWII leader - Bandera…

I happen to be from eastern Poland. I know people that lost family members to Russians in Katyn, to Ukrainians in Wolyn, and to Germans in whole Poland. That is history. I see no connection between W2 and Majdan. But I see connections between 1938 and Crimea.

BTW Bandera had nothing on Stalin when it comes to murdering civilians, and there are 1000s monuments of Stalin in Russia, and your president called the fall of USSR the greatest tragedy of XXth century...

Anyway - this doesn't matter. You lie regarding the nationalist forces (look up the percentage won by right wing parties in elections after Majdan - less than 5% IIRC).

And the threat to ethnic Russians in Ukraine is pure bullshit Russian propaganda. There is not even clear way to tell who is Ukrainian speaking Russian (significant amounts of these live even in Kiev), and who is "persecuted Russian". And telling by the fact that Russian minority in Estonia, Latvia etc complain about persecution too (and EU laws regarding minorities are very strict about such things). I'd take such complains with big grain of salt.

In conclusion - it was invasion and annexion of democratic state by authoritarian neighbor. The excuses are poor. That's why most of civilized world put sanctions on Russia.

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans kill people. Always have, always will. Only the most facile could possibly believe this or any war machine is "just to kill people".

Yes, but there's a reason the US government won't let me drive an M1 to work. Which is unfortunate, because I would love to. I'm just saying, let's not make inaccurate assertions about the purpose of some of our tools.

You're being beyond facile. The other purposes wasn't driving your ass to work. Rather

  - Deter war
  - Protect people from being killed
  - Provide strength to negotiations / treaties
  - Liberate conquered people

Re: The F-35's $400k helmet

#130
post #128
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>On the other hand behaving like it's 1939 in modern Europe must be punished, and that exactly what Russia did when Western Ukraine nationalist forces grabbed the power in Kiev through the military coup and threatened to do to ethnic Russians what the same nationalist forces did to ethnic Poles in Western Ukraine during WWII http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army#Ethnic... . Their WWII leader - Bandera…

I happen to be from eastern Poland. I know people that lost family members to Russians in Katyn, to Ukrainians in Wolyn, and to Germans in whole Poland. That is history. I see no connection between W2 and Majdan. But I see connections between 1938 and Crimea. BTW Bandera had nothing on Stalin when it comes to murdering civilians, and there are 1000s monuments of Stalin in Russia, and your president called the fall of…

>BTW Bandera had nothing on Stalin when it comes to murdering civilians

Bandera was doing ethnic cleansing of a region and killed 60000-100000 Poles, Stalin doing military occupation of half of the country - 150000 : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_invasion_of_Poland#After...

Percentage-wise Poland probably got easier than USSR itself during the same period under Stalin. Not that it wasn't a tragedy, just that it wasn't specifically against Poles. It was pretty much the same "upper class cleansing" that happened in USSR - military officers, ministers, government, and other educated or "advanced" in any other way people. Bandera on the other hand was specifically killing Poles.

>You lie regarding the nationalist forces (look up the percentage won by right wing parties in elections after Majdan - less than 5% IIRC).

Yatsenuk's and Poroshenko's parties took around 50% and have full power in the country. It is these forces that direct the "pacifying" operation in the East which in particular results in significant ethnic cleansing of that region.

>And the threat to ethnic Russians in Ukraine is pure bullshit Russian propaganda. There is not even clear way to tell who is Ukrainian speaking Russian (significant amounts of these live even in Kiev), and who is "persecuted Russian".

you just don't know what you're talking about.

>And telling by the fact that Russian minority in Estonia, Latvia etc complain about persecution too (and EU laws regarding minorities are very strict about such things). I'd take such complains with big grain of salt.

Have relatives in Litva. Fully integrated, inter-married, children, etc... If you're relatively young and determined, you can be able to jump through all the hoops... And it wasn't immigration, it is for the people who lived on the territory at the time of the new state formation. You're probably again talking about things you don't know about.

>In conclusion - it was invasion and annexion of democratic state by authoritarian neighbor.

Presidents in democratic state are changed either through elections or impeachment. Taking power in a coup is completely different thing. These new Ukraine powers were stupid to immediately manifest direct and open hostility toward ethnic Russians (first order of business of the new powers - the language law - no practical effect, only huge symbolic gesture) before having built up the military forces. Putin doesn't care about fate of these ethnic Russians of course, it just provided the opening for him, and Crimea more than happily voted for separation (speaking about democracy - Crimea separation was more democratic than the power change in Kiev, so if you think that current regime in Kiev is democratically legitimate than it would be a double standard to not recognize Crimea separation). And as a side effect Ukraine got punished for stupidity of their new regime. Nationalism blinded by hate always gets punished in the end...

And by the way - everybody is ok with Saudis attacking Yemen where the president they liked was ousted... Try Putin actually attack the Ukraine when Yanukovich was ousted... Double standards.

Post reply on HN