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Why are interest rates so low?

brookings.edu

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Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#161
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO we need more growth because the more growth we have the more the establishment can skim off and the more they can then consume. If we all stopped producing a surplus how will movie stars and bankers get the energy to run their private jets?

Growth and technology are actually reducing the difference between rich and poor in almost every aspect of life. Between 1920 and 1960 the only people who could travel quickly around the world were the super-rich. With the advent of the turbofan engine, and the widebody jet, quick and comfortable travel became accessible to the general public. Cell phones and the internet are another paradigmatic case of this. It use…

>>Growth and technology are actually reducing the difference between rich and poor in almost every aspect of life.

It seriously annoys me when people say this, because it's so incredibly short-sighted. It's only in terms of physical, tangible standard of living factors. Travel, as you noted, is one of those. And yeah, everyone has refrigerators in their homes nowadays. Yay!

But being ultra-rich gives a tremendous amount of intangible perks, such as the ability to greatly influence public policy and the ability to afford top-notch legal representation, which lets them get away with serious crimes that would put normal people like you and I in jail for decades. There's also inter-generational perks. For example, children of ultra-rich parents can afford excellent education and are much more likely to get into the top schools.

I can go on. The fact is, the differences between the haves and the have-nots today are vast, and they are getting bigger every day as wealth inequality increases. Yes, it is good that we have the basics covered for most people but beyond those basics things look pretty grim.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#162

Interest rates are low because inflation is low and central banks are irrationally terrified of even mild deflation, fearing some sort of hypothetical deflationary spiral (despite a complete lack of precedent). And since the rate of technological progress is increasing , and technological progress creates deflationary pressure , they have to work extra hard to keep up. Tell me, when was the last time you stopped buyi…

My understanding is there are two reasons you want inflation:

(1) Inflation means real interest rates can go negative, which means it's harder to get stuck at the zero lower bound (as we are today).

(2) Wages are sticky, i.e. workers fight very hard against having their wages reduced. When there's inflation you can effectively cut wages by giving raises below inflation. Without inflation it's very hard to cut wages, and the economy becomes brittle.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#163
post #70
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there an example of a successful economy that ran without a central bank?

Well, the main purpose of a central bank is to issue currency, so an economy without a central bank would need to use something else as currency (either a foreign currency, or some sort of commodity like gold or grain).

The US had its own currency long before it had a central bank.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#164
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Growth and technology are actually reducing the difference between rich and poor in almost every aspect of life. Between 1920 and 1960 the only people who could travel quickly around the world were the super-rich. With the advent of the turbofan engine, and the widebody jet, quick and comfortable travel became accessible to the general public. Cell phones and the internet are another paradigmatic case of this. It use…

>>Growth and technology are actually reducing the difference between rich and poor in almost every aspect of life. It seriously annoys me when people say this, because it's so incredibly short-sighted. It's only in terms of physical, tangible standard of living factors. Travel, as you noted, is one of those. And yeah, everyone has refrigerators in their homes nowadays. Yay! But being ultra-rich gives a tremendous amo…

I agree that the rich still enjoy many advantages over the poor, but still believe that the difference is being reduced by growth and technology.

Up until the 19th and 20th centuries, only the very richest few could afford to learn to read, write, do math, and understand history. The increases in productivity and technology we have enjoyed have helped to reduce the differences in level of education, and any number of other aspects of life. You contend that the ultra-rich "are much more likely to get into the top schools", but you are missing the historical context which demonstrates that the level of education available to the middle and lower classes has been steadily increasing.

With regards to public policy and legal representation, we probably agree to some extent with respect to the issue, though we likely differ in paradigm. I would surmise from your comment that you believe the government could 'solve the problem'. The way that I see it, these are the areas where goverment has been most active in disadvantaging the poor and middle classes, and a reduction in the size and scope of government is the only way to systematically help level the playing field.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#165
The comments I see in this thread make me so upset.

HN has always been about making the world a better place. Doing things that matter. Making lives better. We look forward to self driving cars, solving heathcare, etc etc et.

Yet I read these comments and apparently HN isn't as concerned about progress anymore. "Why do we need growth", "I'll take peace over growth at this point."

Are you crazy? When did we stop caring about growth? Making things better? More efficient? Improving lives?

What a depressing comment thread.

edit: Some people are saying, but economic growth does not necessarily imply tech progress. yes, economic progress does not have to come from technology growth. You're right.

tldr: but it would be incredibly incredibly difficult (and perhaps provably impossible in a free-ish society) to grow the economy without also encouraging and making technological growth (also finding oil deposits, other discoveries, etc)

Growth comes from a few things. 1, operating at max utilization. Full employment. Going from 50% to 90% will grow the GDP. 2, saving. Saving what we already have. Building bridges, long lasting homes, etc to that we can be more efficient and focus on other problems in the future. Note, this does not increase yearly GDP but it increases overall wealth per capita. For example, many europeans live and benefit from homes that were built for them hundreds of years ago. They're free to worry less about building homes and more on improving other aspects of their lives. 3, technological progress.

While it's true gorwth != tech progress, its also certain that growing the economy by #1 and #2 above will allow more room for people to work on #3. #2 is important. We can't work on nuclear physics before we build homes from physicists to live in. Likewise #1 is important. for every person that becomes employed, their handwork allows other people to focus on other things, research. We need enough farmers to feed researchers. The more farmers, the more researchers. So in a sense, you can, but it would be incredibly difficult to grow the economy without also encouraging and making technological growth.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why the obsession of economic growth? One alternate question might be, "At what point in time do you consider the economy to have become 'big enough' that you don't care about growth?" Today? 2000? 1990? 1970? The people who might think today is "big enough" might also have thought that say 1990 was big enough, and yet very few people would want to be limited to 1990's tech / culture. It seems reasonable to imagine t…

You can have technological, scientific and cultural advancement without economic growth. Building more shopping malls out in the suburbs leads to growth, but it doesn't advance society.

No you can't. If I invent a self driving car, economic growth is inevitable. What is the difference between now and 1800 other than technology and growth (hint, technology is growth).

Of course, there is also growth that doesn't come from technology. Like building shopping malls, employing people, and letting the economy operate at full tilt, producing things that we can then either consume, save (a form of growth), or spend on investment (another possible form of growth).

You might not think building a shopping malls advances society, but it's second order effects 100% do.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#167
post #98
post #6

Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…

"Why the obsession of economic growth?" Because central banks (CB) print money out of thin air. That "money" is debt. You print 100, you owe 110 counting interest. How can you pay the 10, if you only printed/exists, 100? You can't. You, me, everyone, is a debt slave. "Times are good" = CBs print a lot of money (out of thin air). A lot of non existant interest too, but you don't notice, cause more money/debt is printe…

Also because growth improves lives. In 1800 if your child contracted polio he would die, now they live. If you don't think technology and growth make lives better, then HN might not be the most like minded community for you.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#168

The comments I see in this thread make me so upset. HN has always been about making the world a better place. Doing things that matter. Making lives better. We look forward to self driving cars, solving heathcare, etc etc et. Yet I read these comments and apparently HN isn't as concerned about progress anymore. "Why do we need growth", "I'll take peace over growth at this point." Are you crazy? When did we stop carin…

Growth!=Technological progress.

I'm not sure what else there is to say. Do you realise you made this logical jump? Does it not need expanding upon or justifying? Do you not think it might be the source of the difference other people have?

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#169

The comments I see in this thread make me so upset. HN has always been about making the world a better place. Doing things that matter. Making lives better. We look forward to self driving cars, solving heathcare, etc etc et. Yet I read these comments and apparently HN isn't as concerned about progress anymore. "Why do we need growth", "I'll take peace over growth at this point." Are you crazy? When did we stop carin…

It's not clear that economic growth is a good marker for technological or societal growth.

In fact, I'd suggest that technological growth benefits from economically lean periods, when people have to strive to make things less bloated and more efficient - exactly as you say.

Is this a good thing? It's not as clear-cut as you claim.

I would personally take peace over growth, any time.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#170
post #6

Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…

Giving the population ability to stay healthy with affordable health care, moderate taxes and stability should be a main priority

You can only do this with growth. In 1700 you couldn't afford good healtcare even if you were king. It simply didn't existed. In 2015 you could't travel on roads without the constant threat of death. In 2017 you couldn't use VR to keep in touch with loved ones. In 2030 you couldn't live in old age independently because of fatigue and weakness. Now in 2100, we have solved all of these problems. People are healthier, taxes are low and declining. People are happy, safe, and free to do as they want.

This is why I am thankful for progress. What a time to be alive.

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