Live data from Hacker News

Why are interest rates so low?

brookings.edu

101–110 of 238 posts

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#101
> That’s true only in a very narrow sense.

I love his complete willingness to mislead. What an asshole.

If a bank can borrow from the Fed at a lower rate, they refinance their existing debt almost immediately. This trickles down to smaller institutions without the ability to borrow directly from the Fed. It's not true that the Fed sets the interest rate in a narrow sense, it's true in a very strict and immediate sense.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#102

Interest rates are low because inflation is low and central banks are irrationally terrified of even mild deflation, fearing some sort of hypothetical deflationary spiral (despite a complete lack of precedent). And since the rate of technological progress is increasing , and technological progress creates deflationary pressure , they have to work extra hard to keep up. Tell me, when was the last time you stopped buyi…

[deleted]

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a large part of how people in the US make money. Most people have their retirements tied to the stock markets (401k, 403b, and other options are basically just a huge collection of stocks, commodities, and bonds). If growth doesn't occur, the markets don't do as well and may even fall causing a LOT of people to take a hit in retirement funds.

> If growth doesn't occur, the markets don't do as well and may even fall causing a LOT of people to take a hit in retirement funds. It isn't just about "markets". There are actual businesses underlying those financial assets that require economic growth to expand, hire people, pay wages and provide an economic return to their owners (including shareholders).

Patagonia outdoor clothing company recently announced they were aiming for no growth.

http://www.greenbiz.com/news/2013/03/01/patagonia-founder-ta...

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#104
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have technological, scientific and cultural advancement without economic growth. Building more shopping malls out in the suburbs leads to growth, but it doesn't advance society.

I have discussed this with friends recently. Why do we need growth? I don't need a faster iPhone, or more tech. I honestly don't see my life being any better for the last ten years worth of "growth" (much of which seems to have been pumping up asset prices). I would quite like to relax and coast a bit in life, but with the constant chasing of growth by everyone else, standing still means you will get left behind (i.e…

I'll take "peace" over "growth" at this point.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#105
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have technological, scientific and cultural advancement without economic growth. Building more shopping malls out in the suburbs leads to growth, but it doesn't advance society.

I have discussed this with friends recently. Why do we need growth? I don't need a faster iPhone, or more tech. I honestly don't see my life being any better for the last ten years worth of "growth" (much of which seems to have been pumping up asset prices). I would quite like to relax and coast a bit in life, but with the constant chasing of growth by everyone else, standing still means you will get left behind (i.e…

And that is why you need growth.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#106
post #59
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy needs to grow as quickly as the population because otherwise there would be a reduction in wealth on the individual level. Also, if inequality remains the same the lives of those on the bottom of society see their lives improve. Less essential, but the people here should appreciate it, growing the economy means that young people have the opportunity to develop themselves professionally, e.g start start-up…

>> "The economy needs to grow as quickly as the population..." In countries with declining populations, ought the economy to contract?

That can be avoided through productivity gains.

Germany's population essentially hasn't increased in 40 years. Their nominal GDP has increased by 15 fold in that time (even after accounting for inflation it's a significant expansion, all due to productivity gains).

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#107
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have technological, scientific and cultural advancement without economic growth. Building more shopping malls out in the suburbs leads to growth, but it doesn't advance society.

I have discussed this with friends recently. Why do we need growth? I don't need a faster iPhone, or more tech. I honestly don't see my life being any better for the last ten years worth of "growth" (much of which seems to have been pumping up asset prices). I would quite like to relax and coast a bit in life, but with the constant chasing of growth by everyone else, standing still means you will get left behind (i.e…

I think you're simply demonstrating that it's incredibly easy to take technology for granted and not realize how much it has improved our lives just within the last ten years.

Very simple example: back in 2005, most people had to print or memorize directions when they were traveling somewhere they didn't know. A few tech enthusiasts had discrete GPS gadgets, but navigation was a manual and tedious (not to mention dangerous) process for most.

Today, almost everyone carries a device that can quickly and reliably find directions, and dynamically re-calculate them. I don't know about you, but I do a lot of driving on my own and this has improved my driving experience considerably.

Now, you could argue that incremental improvements in technology (e.g. faster CPUs, more RAM, etc.) don't actually improve quality of life that much. As someone who is still rocking an iPhone 4S, I agree. It's sufficient for my needs. But incremental improvements tend to be "placeholders" while more significant technology is in development, so it's fine that they happen.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#108
The interest on the national debt would increase to very large levels if they were higher. The government would then have to borrow more. They wouldn't find buyers for all the treasuries they would have to issue, so the fed would have to print money to buy the bonds to make sure there wasn't a failed auction (a.k.a Permanent Open Market Operations). This printing would work, for a little while, but all the interest paid on the national debt would go higher than the magic level of about 8% of GDP in which case it's becomes unable to profitably reinvest itself and instead beings to flood into foreign exchange and hard assets causing severe inflation. If the fed did not print then there would be a failed debt auction and a debt default. That, or there would have to be an unacceptable massive federal budget cut or a likely counterproductive tax increase to cover the interest.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#109

Interest rates are low because inflation is low and central banks are irrationally terrified of even mild deflation, fearing some sort of hypothetical deflationary spiral (despite a complete lack of precedent). And since the rate of technological progress is increasing , and technological progress creates deflationary pressure , they have to work extra hard to keep up. Tell me, when was the last time you stopped buyi…

If I thought house prices were falling I certainly wouldn't buy a house, the same goes for any other major purchase.

Re: Why are interest rates so low?

#110
post #6

Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…

To acquire the high salaries you're talking about, Sweden had to grow substantially at some point in the past.

The 1970s and 1980s were terrible times in Sweden economically. You had to grow out of that through economic reforms.

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0803/international-invest-...

From 2001 to 2014, Sweden's GDP per capita went from $26,000 to $60,000. Surely you didn't need any of that growth, right?

It's easy to soap-box about greed, when ~90% of the world is far worse off than you are.

Sweden also has a consumer debt vs disposable income ratio of 180%, one of the highest on earth, and it's brewing into a crisis. Without the high salaries, courtesy of past growth (since Sweden's economy hasn't expanded since 2008), Sweden would currently be in a crisis economically due to the very high individual debt levels. Most likely in the future to deal with those debts, Sweden will have to slash its standard of living, or boost its growth. Nobody likes to go backwards in comfort, and that's why the 'obsession' with growth - you can't stand still for very long, you either have to go forward or you will go backwards.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/09/sweden-economy-idU...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-13/nordic-cri...

Post reply on HN