Another good question: Why are S&P500 stock dividends so low? The average S&P500 stock dividend yield is like 2%. In theory, you buy stocks to receive earnings. But if companies only give out a fraction of those earnings, you as an investor are not really getting much. So how can companies get away with a 2% dividend yield?
To oversimplify, companies can distribute earnings as dividends or as capital gains. The US' tax regime strongly rewards the latter. Investors, particularly large investors, have both a) explicitly asked for and b) implicitly expressed their preference (via market mechanisms) for their earnings to be in the form of capital gains.
Why are interest rates so low?
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Re: Why are interest rates so low?
#42CPI is a horrible way to measure inflation. This is a pretty biased piece coming from the former chairman of the Fed. It takes for granted that we need centralized organizations to control the supply of money and that our only option is never-ending inflation. There are many who believe we'd be better off it we ended the Fed and the tax of inflation that devalues our money and punishes savers.
Re: Why are interest rates so low?
#43Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…
Bernanke states the goal of the Fed setting rates is full employment. Low interest rates encourage spending, which cause more people to be employed. Lower unemployment is generally good.
Re: Why are interest rates so low?
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
The monetary system hasn't been about 'me and my savings', for at least 3 decades. Reasoning about banks, capital, supply/demand, return on investment, in terms of whether consumers spend their savings or leave it sitting on a bank account, will not make you any wiser about the state of the economy or our monetary system. Current rates are low because central banks everywhere are basically flooding the world with fre…
That's definitely a good point, but even a madman with a printer counts as 'supply outweighing demand'. The principles don't really change. That's why printing all this money is going to catch up with us sooner or later.
If central banks had printed sufficiently and promised to push inflation high enough early in the financial crisis, the market would have cleared and much less money would have accumulated idle in the system overall.
Here are some of my musings on this:
Re: Why are interest rates so low?
#45Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…
Re: Why are interest rates so low?
#46Another good question: Why are S&P500 stock dividends so low? The average S&P500 stock dividend yield is like 2%. In theory, you buy stocks to receive earnings. But if companies only give out a fraction of those earnings, you as an investor are not really getting much. So how can companies get away with a 2% dividend yield?
Dividends are a tax inefficient way to compensate share holders because dividends are taxable. I hope dividends disappear. Share buybacks increase net asset value without any tax impact. There might be a downside, but I haven't heard it yet.
This may look good in the short term, while bond rates are at historic lows, but once they go back to normal levels, the companies will need to sell their own stock to pay the bonds off.
If companies don't want to distribute dividends, the smartest thing for companies to do is invest in additional R&D. This accelerates companies' growth, whereas buybacks just artificially inflate the individual share value.
Re: Why are interest rates so low?
#47By Ben S. Bernanke, former Fed Chairman
Re: Why are interest rates so low?
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because economic growth is the only way to pay off the massive amounts of debt that currently exist. The US needs to constantly grow and acquire more and more resources, labour and capital or else it will cease being the way it currently is...
Inflation also is a way to get rid of debt. A few years with 10% inflation would do wonders for the debt of most countries, provided that their debt is in their own currency.
On the other hand, growing the money supply too quickly when there's no economic growth leads to a situation like Zimbabwe...
Re: Why are interest rates so low?
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because economic growth is the only way to pay off the massive amounts of debt that currently exist. The US needs to constantly grow and acquire more and more resources, labour and capital or else it will cease being the way it currently is...
The next question is why _developed_ countries are taking the debt.
It's really all just a cycle that we can't get ourselves out of now...
Re: Why are interest rates so low?
#50Why the obsession of economic growth? In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high. This greed doesn't lead to less global warming or happier people. I think politicians and economists should start thinking about what actually makes people happy. Economics is efficient management of resources nothing else. Giving the population…
Unemployment in the US is around 5.5%. Growth is correlated with jobs, expendable income, etc. So its important if you want to lower real unemployment.
>In Sweden we currently have negative prime interest rate and people have higher salaries than ever and housing prices are all time high.
France went, roughly, this route a decade or two ago. Now they have riots in the streets because young people can't find jobs. Youth unemployment in Spain, UK, Greece, Italy, etc are also scary. The socialist style government does a good job governing the problems of today it seems, but the capitalistic styles does a better job of taking care of the future and the young trying to enter the workforce.
Those nations saw their economies as 'good enough' at one time. They were paying out big salaries and pensions to their public sector unions and overtaxing their corporations and made their budget. Now they're in hysterics about employment, real estate bubbles, youth riots, and lack of growth.
>>In Sweden
I'd also be concerned about your .8% GDP spending on military, which is fairly low, especially in an age of a Russia that routinely sends subs into your territories and annexes lands not too far from you guys. Its weird that we're still applauding the welfare nanny state when its been shown to be fail past a certain point, especially in a country with near 8-9% unemployment. Also your GDP has been raising steadily, so I find it hard to believe that growth isn't' a contributing factor to what you perceive as success:
https://www.quandl.com/c/sweden/sweden-economy-data
If that was a flat graph you wouldn't be chiding us on the internet. You'd be selling shoe shines for gruel or your poor parents would have elected to not birth you.
Also, are you an older established person? Wonderful, but please don't throw down the very ladder that you climbed: Today:
http://ycharts.com/indicators/sweden_youth_unemployment_rate...
Still almost 22% youth unemployment. Countries that care about growth, like the USA, have half that level. So yeah, maybe you should care about growth.