boy this is an awkward post.
Awkward or not, $100,000 will be going to a charity at the end of this. I think we can all put up with it for that alone.
Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
31–40 of 144 posts
Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
#32I'm surprised at someone actually taking the other side of this bet as I thought Sam was _very_ conservative on his projections.
1) Any one of those companies (besides Pinterest IMO) could conceivably achieve a market valuation of $200B by Jan 1, 2020.
2) Again any one of those companies (besides Teespring IMO) could conceivably achieve a market valuation of $27B by Jan 1, 2020.
3) Easy win for Sam.
Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
#33I sort of love that the person willing to take the other side of this is a Boston-area VC :) I accept subject to verification that you really qualify as a VC, and I can't find a website for Immaculate Conception Ventures. What investments have you made and how large is your fund? If terms from the blog post are acceptable I will enter into longbets.
I found the following...
https://angel.co/michael-de-la-maza
7 confirmed investments of $25K
Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
#34I think it's pompous for both you and Sam Altman to be wasting our threads with these bets.
Agreed; I would have greatly preferred he emailed me.
Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
#352) and 3) seem like a given, but looking at the companies in 1), I think Sam might have his work cut out for him...
SpaceX alone makes me not want to bet against Sam on point #1.
Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
#36I sort of love that the person willing to take the other side of this is a Boston-area VC :) I accept subject to verification that you really qualify as a VC, and I can't find a website for Immaculate Conception Ventures. What investments have you made and how large is your fund? If terms from the blog post are acceptable I will enter into longbets.
Eh, I would be cautious, you might be getting played for publicity. If that's the case it wouldn't serve the purpose of the bet because the other side doesn't have any conviction about the outcome and only wants to raise their profile in the VC world.
$100k is probably cheap to get your name in many major news outlets.
Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
http://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9258798
Directly from link To win, I have to be right on all three propositions. 1) The top 6 US companies at http://fortune.com/2015/01/22/the-age-of-unicorns/ (Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX) are currently worth just over $100B. I am leaving out Snapchat because I couldn’t get verification of its valuation. Proposition 1: On January 1st, 2020, these companies will be worth at least $200B in aggregat…
Ironically a basic statistics class indicates that cherry picking companies that deliver 2x, 3x and ... whatever the fuck that third pick is ... as a guaranteed return over 5 years is indicative of the overenthusiastic hype that historically surrounds bubble valuations.
#3 is a die roll. #2 is the killer. And I might take the bet on just #1.
Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
#38Pretty confident Sam will win, given the current track record, and baring a complete market collapse.
That's the nature of bubbles. This is a bet about whether there's a bubble or not. IF there is a bubble, of course it's going to look like Sam has a slam dunk win here-- until the bubble pops and then it looks obvious that Sam could not have won. This is irrespective of the bubble popping in 2019 and thus Sam losing the bet and 2021 - where Sam wins the bet but loses the point.
The problem with bubbles is that when you're in them, it's very hard to know you're in a bubble and thus crazy things seem perfectly rational.
I'm not saying we're in a bubble or not in early stage investment--- I'm just pointing out the nature of bubbles.
Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
#39I sort of love that the person willing to take the other side of this is a Boston-area VC :) I accept subject to verification that you really qualify as a VC, and I can't find a website for Immaculate Conception Ventures. What investments have you made and how large is your fund? If terms from the blog post are acceptable I will enter into longbets.
Eh, I would be cautious, you might be getting played for publicity. If that's the case it wouldn't serve the purpose of the bet because the other side doesn't have any conviction about the outcome and only wants to raise their profile in the VC world. $100k is probably cheap to get your name in many major news outlets.
$100k is going to a charity one way or another. That's a good thing no matter how you cut it.
Re: Tell Sam Altman: I will take your bet
#40I'm surprised at someone actually taking the other side of this bet as I thought Sam was _very_ conservative on his projections. 1) Any one of those companies (besides Pinterest IMO) could conceivably achieve a market valuation of $200B by Jan 1, 2020. 2) Again any one of those companies (besides Teespring IMO) could conceivably achieve a market valuation of $27B by Jan 1, 2020. 3) Easy win for Sam.
1) Do you really think Dropbox, with all the big co competition, can grow past its current valuation? Snapchat would have been a better choice in this list.