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Sam Altman: Why Hardware Could Yield the Next $10B Startups

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Re: Sam Altman: Why Hardware Could Yield the Next $10B Startups

#81
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comes off as the famous (apocryphal) patent quote from around 1900. "Everything that can be invented has been invented" I think a lot of people (myself included) think there are lots of potential benefits to a smart house. I don't think we're there yet. Most of what exists now isn't very user friendly, and most don't have easy setups so the things that are out now are unlikely to have huge hockey stick growth. H…

It's not that there are no benefits, but there's not a driving need that these products you describe solve that makes up for the additional cost and complexity that implementing them provides. What's the value proposition? If it's "just cool", then there probably isn't one. 1) There are real benefits with Nest since it can reduce energy consumption. Also, Nest isn't really a whole lot more expensive than other thermo…

Just because you don't think it's useful enough or worth the cost doesn't mean nobody does.

1. Nest is a lot more expensive

2. Not worried about the security. If someone wants in its just not that hard. Locks can be picked, doors can be broken down. Adding hackers to the list isn't meaningfully different.

3. I'm not talking about opening it for me, I'm talking about opening it for other people like they showed in the apple watch keynote.

4. All the things on this list can be done, and obviously they cost more money. For the most part, these are luxury things. Whether they are "worth" it depends on how much money you have to spend. As someone else noted, it might sound expensive, but 275k vs 276k isn't a big deal. 575k vs 580k is even less important.

5.see #4

There are clearly lots of tech products that have nothing to do with reducing cost. They exist only to delight users. With more work in this area the complexity will come down as people make better products.

Re: Sam Altman: Why Hardware Could Yield the Next $10B Startups

#82
post #8

The reason that a larger number of hardware startups have recently appeared is quite simple - these are mostly actually software companies. Modern hardware that a startup might produce - IoT stuff, small computers etc - are essentially bare-minimum hardware wrappers around black-box chips. The complexity of developing hardware is driven by the number of discrete components used. Every additional resistor is a resisto…

Crowdfunding has been huge for hardware startups too.

Re: Sam Altman: Why Hardware Could Yield the Next $10B Startups

#83
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're outlook is a $10M or even $100M valuation, VCs and even angels would not interested.

Plenty of funds would be happy with exits in the $100M range. The billion dollar exits or IPOs are the exception, not the rule and a $50M exit is a damn sight better than a failure. Of course it all depends on when they joined that particular party, the later in the game the higher the exit would have to be to make those investors happy.

Of course is $50M exit a lot better than a failure.

My point was: if $50M is your maximum potential - if everything goes perfect - it'd be pretty hard to get some interest from VCs.

For their math to work out, they need at least the potential for an exit a few orders of magnitude more than their investment. If VC rounds start at $1M, a max potential of $50M will not be taken into consideration so easily ?

Re: Sam Altman: Why Hardware Could Yield the Next $10B Startups

#84
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is becoming more open and less expensive. The point is that the tools for prototyping, simulating, assembly, and manufacturing are becoming much cheaper. Along with the fact that people are sharing more. I agree that there is no substitute for RTFM. That will always be required. Although, it's layers of abstraction in hardware too. Just like software libraries and frameworks: if someone has published a circuit tha…

Yes, manufacturing is getting cheap enough that the average person can get themselves in a mess of trouble now. It's still got a ways to go before it's cheap enough that they can get themselves out of that mess.

I feel like "number of people able to get themselves into mess of trouble > number of people able to get themselves out of mess of trouble" is a pretty solid premise throughout time.

Re: Sam Altman: Why Hardware Could Yield the Next $10B Startups

#85
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

more on the CNC machine?

Hmmm. What can I say? Very beefy modular tabletop gantry; AC servos; Automatic Tool Changer; probably 3HP CAT 30 or 40 spindle; coolant; Rigid tapping; weight in the 500 to 1000 lbs range. No, it's not your typical DIY 80-20 t-slot machine on eBay. This is intended as a serious step up from something like a Tormach without having to spend $100K+. No ETA yet.

Awesome stuff. I hope you post about it.
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