You are assuming that the percentage of people interviewing for a job are a good representation of the general programming population. That's not true at all.
First, unless you really think we are terrible at hiring as an industry. So even if on a given day all developers that start looking for a job have a skill level that matched the average population, the good developers will find jobs faster, leaving the 4th, 5th and 6th job applications for the developers that did not manage to get hired after applying ina couple of places at the most. So yes, your talent pool on any particular day, just due to this effect, is far worse than the average talent in the industry.
Then there's how bad developers are fired or laid off more often than the good ones, so they are added to the pool more often. Typically companies make bigger efforts to keep good developers happy than those that they considered hiring mistakes.
And then there's the issue with the very top of the market being a lot about references and networking. In this town, no place that does not know me would give me the kind of compensation that places that do know me would. I'll interview well, but nobody will want to spend top dollar in someone based just on an interview. In contrast, if one of their most senior devs say that so and so is really top talent, then offers that would not be made normally start popping up. The one exception is 'anchor developers', people that have a huge level of visibility, and you still won't get them to send you a resume at random. You will have to go look for them, at a conference, user group or something, and convince them that you want them in the first place.
My current employer has a 5% hire rate from people interviewing off the street, and that's not because our talent is top 5%, but because you go through a lot of candidates before you find someone competent. We've actually tested this: Interviewers do not know candidates, even when they were referred by other employees. But, as if by magic, when there's a reference, the interviewed almost always is graded as a hire.