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Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

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Re: Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

#51

Post by roymurdock »

LukeHoersten wrote: post #39

'"Do rich societies really need to get richer and richer indefinitely?" he asks.' They do if they are going to pay off their mega-debt. The real fear is when the GDP drops below the yearly interest payments. I feel the same when I go to nice European countries. "Wow everything is so nice" and then I remind myself that Germany is paying for it all. It's not sustainable. Look at some of the Scandinavian countries for n…

There is an alternative to paying off mega-debt - defaulting. Just as Germany did when they were forced to pay ridiculous war reparations after WWI (after a period of hyperinflation as they tried to print their debts away, much in the spirit of the EU QE efforts).

If Germany is paying for all of this and building an unsustainable debt by not investing in European infrastructure and businesses that will generate it a return, then so be it - this is a problem for Germany. They'll either have to start seizing assets or annulling debt.

Re: Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

#52

Post by timeal »

Why so many negative comments? Japan certainly seems to outshine the US according to multiple metrics, so they are doing something right:

Japan's unemployment rate is 3.6% vs 5.5% for the US: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/inde... vs http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Japan's homelessness rate is 20 per 100,000 population (25,000 homeless people in 2001) vs 220 per 100,000 in the US: http://books.google.com/books?id=q-PgHH8TJi8C&printsec=front... vs https://www.onecpd.info/resources/documents/2012AHAR_PITesti...

Japan's incarceration rate is 50 per 100,000 population vs 710 per 100,000 for the US.

Japan is even on track to stop increasing their public deficit by this year (thanks to the new sales tax) whereas the US is far from being on budget. And Japan even manages to achieve this despite a significantly aging demographics (lots of social benefits paid to non-working people), compare http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/japan-p... vs http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/3/28/saupload_3-...

Japan's society seems to be functioning better than the US. I appreciate this article for trying to find out why.

Re: Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

#53

Post by stevedekorte »

Is the author saying recession caused the good aspects of Japan. If that is the hypothesis, then we expect that none of these cultural aspects like low crime rates, politeness, good food, cleanliness, etc existed before the Japanese recession? Why do people take articles like this seriously?

Re: Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

#54

Post by rodgerd »

timeal wrote: post #52

Why so many negative comments? Japan certainly seems to outshine the US according to multiple metrics, so they are doing something right: Japan's unemployment rate is 3.6% vs 5.5% for the US: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/inde... vs http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 Japan's homelessness rate is 20 per 100,000 population (25,000 homeless people in 2001) vs 220 per 100,000 in the US:…

> Why so many negative comments?

Because the English-speaking world has roughly agreed on the neoliberal economic consensus that extreme individualism, devil-take-the-hindmost capitalism is the Only Way. It is an absolute dogma, reinforced constantly through the press and the best-funded political parties.

Rich nations like Japan or Norway who are trundling happily along with more equitable societies, rather than a return to Victorian social models, need to be stigmatized lest one start asking questions like "what's the point having a country of billionaires and ditch-diggers?"

Might as well pitch atheism in Saudi Arabia.

Re: Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

#55

Post by twblalock »

timeal wrote: post #52

Why so many negative comments? Japan certainly seems to outshine the US according to multiple metrics, so they are doing something right: Japan's unemployment rate is 3.6% vs 5.5% for the US: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/inde... vs http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 Japan's homelessness rate is 20 per 100,000 population (25,000 homeless people in 2001) vs 220 per 100,000 in the US:…

Even during the deepest point of the post-1980s recession, unemployment never exceeded 6%. In fact, the highest level of unemployment Japan has experienced since 1953 was 5.6%: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/unemployment-rate

It is interesting that they managed to preserve low unemployment and increase the standard of living during about 20 years of flat economic growth, but they've done it. Part of it can be explained by the fact that layoffs are rare (companies almost always assign employees to do unnecessary work rather than lay them off), but that is not sufficient to explain how Japan maintained the world's second-highest GDP during the "lost decade."

Re: Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

#56

Post by funkyy »

rodgerd wrote: post #54
timeal wrote: post #52

Why so many negative comments? Japan certainly seems to outshine the US according to multiple metrics, so they are doing something right: Japan's unemployment rate is 3.6% vs 5.5% for the US: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/results/month/inde... vs http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 Japan's homelessness rate is 20 per 100,000 population (25,000 homeless people in 2001) vs 220 per 100,000 in the US:…

> Why so many negative comments? Because the English-speaking world has roughly agreed on the neoliberal economic consensus that extreme individualism, devil-take-the-hindmost capitalism is the Only Way. It is an absolute dogma, reinforced constantly through the press and the best-funded political parties. Rich nations like Japan or Norway who are trundling happily along with more equitable societies, rather than a r…

"How dare Japan not fall under our rules, hurr durr"

Whole Asia is rising thanks to one and single fact - they stick to their rules. While whole western world is bending every possible rule to wage wars, shut protesters and buy votes.

As history teaches us east will collapse under its own degeneration of freedom so Asia can flourish. Then Asia will collapse in its self control obsession so the east world will flourish.

Its how the world rolls over and over.

Re: Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

#57

Post by lovemenot »

jpatokal wrote: post #45
lovemenot wrote: post #24

Such cultural aspects of Japan are indeed attractive and I hope they will endure. However, the current economic model is not sustainable for a country of 120M, or even 80 - 90% of that (after shrinkage of human assets). Ironically, from the perspective of the country as a whole, sustainable agriculture / craft industries are very far from being so. I believe, Japan needs to find a way to attract economically stimulat…

The interesting difference to eg. the Meiji revolution, and what makes this really uncharted territory, is that the extreme aging of Japan makes both democratic and violent upheaval near-impossible. You can't vote out the bastards, because the pensioner vote outweighs the youth, and any violent students/revolutionaries will not be able to get the majority of the population on their side. As a practical example, my fa…

If and when it happens, a sharp transition would include seizure of debt assets owned by your father-in-law's generation. Either through default or inflation.

Furthermore I understand, but cannot provide evidence, that 10% of true believers is enough to revolutionize a whole population. Indeed the Meiji succeeded with only around 10% support.

Re: Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

#58

Post by [deleted] »

jpatokal wrote: post #45
lovemenot wrote: post #24

Such cultural aspects of Japan are indeed attractive and I hope they will endure. However, the current economic model is not sustainable for a country of 120M, or even 80 - 90% of that (after shrinkage of human assets). Ironically, from the perspective of the country as a whole, sustainable agriculture / craft industries are very far from being so. I believe, Japan needs to find a way to attract economically stimulat…

The interesting difference to eg. the Meiji revolution, and what makes this really uncharted territory, is that the extreme aging of Japan makes both democratic and violent upheaval near-impossible. You can't vote out the bastards, because the pensioner vote outweighs the youth, and any violent students/revolutionaries will not be able to get the majority of the population on their side. As a practical example, my fa…

[deleted]

Re: Turning Japanese: Coping with stasis

#59

Post by jcurbo »

jpatokal wrote: post #40
hkmurakami wrote: post #3

> And then there’s the view. Whether it’s the outskirts of Queens on the way from New York’s JFK airport, or the fringes of the Los Angeles highway off-ramps by LAX, everything seems a bit run down and decrepit. Even on the train from Narita Airport to Tokyo, you'll pass plenty of comparatively run down "commerce areas" adjacent to small train stops. The buildings are old, and made of nondescript concrete that have b…

Yeah, that line is ridiculous. Tokyo is the only part of Japan that's still growing in population, and that will stall and reverse by 2020. Even in Tokyo, "new and shiny" is concentrated in a few central spots near major train stations. Population in the rest of the country is shrinking, with many places in outright collapse. https://spikejapan.wordpress.com/2014/08/16/yubari-withering...

Bit of a sidebar but I really like Spike Japan. I wish they'd compile all the blog posts into a book.
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