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The Rent Hypothesis

esoltas.blogspot.com

21–30 of 150 posts

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#21
post #14

This is a very important topic as robotics and automation begin their exponential curve of running our lives. Who will own the robots? Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge?

"Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge?" Actually, that's easy: No. Humanity will not be enslaved to a small number of capital owners. But the reason isn't necessarily a happy one, which is that humanity will revolt and start destroying and probably kill lots of people and even potentially kill the goose laying the golden egg by destroying the robotic infrastructur…

I think you're wrong. Humanity won't destroy the golden goose. The next Aaron Swartz will release it to the public, whether that's distributing the software to everyone, or finding a way to freely build/distribute high-level robotics.

Just as Prometheus brought fire to the humans, someone will find a way to prevent the future from being locked away. Once you achieve the necessary level of automation, you only need one fabricator that can build the next.

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#22
post #14

This is a very important topic as robotics and automation begin their exponential curve of running our lives. Who will own the robots? Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge?

"Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge?" Actually, that's easy: No. Humanity will not be enslaved to a small number of capital owners. But the reason isn't necessarily a happy one, which is that humanity will revolt and start destroying and probably kill lots of people and even potentially kill the goose laying the golden egg by destroying the robotic infrastructur…

This seems to me very implausible, because our panem et circenses are too good today. People will be too busy with their comfy couches and Netflix, their NFL, their darknet hashish, and their Instagram to revolt. Also, the system is tuned so that labor servility is high (by setting the price of housing and medicine such that the people must scramble all the time to meet basic expenses) so idleness and therefore active discontent is rare.

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#23
At the beginning of civilization, the research budget for the invention of fire was zero, while the benefits of fire were incalculable. Compare this to the development costs of the next generation of Boeing aircraft relative to the small improvements in air travel. This dynamic has enormous implications for the presumed benefits of increases in government spending beyond some low base.

Over time and with increasing complexity, returns on investment in society begin to level off and turn negative. Once the easy irrigation projects are completed, society begins progressively larger projects covering longer conduits with progressively smaller amounts of water produced. Bureaucracies that started out as efficient organizers turn into inefficient obstacles to improvement more concerned with their own perpetuation than with service to society. Elites who manage the institutions of society slowly become more concerned with the their own share of a shrinking pie than with the welfare of society as a whole. The elite echelons of society go from leading to leeching. Elites behave like parasites on the host body of society and engage in what economists call "rent seeking," or the accumulation of wealth through nonproductive means--postmodern finance being one example.

Excerpt from: http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Wars-Making-Global-Crisis/dp/...

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#24
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge? If current trends continue, it will be the capitalist who first commercialized the robot once public and private R&D had done all the heavy lifting.

No robot is 100% self sufficient. There will always be a need for skilled labor to maintain and update robots. Even the most magical electric self-driving car requires maintenance in the form of software updates, tire rotations and the like. I think we are entering a period of "super industrialization", where even fewer workers are needed to do greater amounts of work. Careful care needs to go into making sure we don…

[deleted]

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#25

This is a very important topic as robotics and automation begin their exponential curve of running our lives. Who will own the robots? Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge?

It's not well known but this is exactly what the unabomber was so worried about that he decided he needed to maim people to get everyone's attention.

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#26
post #14

This is a very important topic as robotics and automation begin their exponential curve of running our lives. Who will own the robots? Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge?

"Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge?" Actually, that's easy: No. Humanity will not be enslaved to a small number of capital owners. But the reason isn't necessarily a happy one, which is that humanity will revolt and start destroying and probably kill lots of people and even potentially kill the goose laying the golden egg by destroying the robotic infrastructur…

I don't think revolt is an inevitable outcome for a number of reasons. I actually think it's very unlikely.

First, the warfare would be very asymmetric, with much of the war fighting capability automated through the very robotics that empower the capital class economically. Go ahead and ask the Taliban / ISIS what happens when you try to fight a modern military force in 2015 with weapons from 1970. If you don't have the money, you can't afford the newest weapons. If you don't have the newest weapons, you'll be fighting an asymmetric war from the weak position.

Second, it is in the best interests of the capital class to keep the underclasses happy. You see this tactic in a lot of developing countries like Mexico or India - the government subsidizes energy, food, etc. for the poor; meanwhile the rich run roughshod over the economy. So while people may dislike the lack of upward mobility, they are also dependent on the system (which is largely funded by the capital class), so there's very little will to change. If you give people just enough that they fear losing it, they will continue to vote for you.

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#27
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge? If current trends continue, it will be the capitalist who first commercialized the robot once public and private R&D had done all the heavy lifting.

No robot is 100% self sufficient. There will always be a need for skilled labor to maintain and update robots. Even the most magical electric self-driving car requires maintenance in the form of software updates, tire rotations and the like. I think we are entering a period of "super industrialization", where even fewer workers are needed to do greater amounts of work. Careful care needs to go into making sure we don…

I've been thinking more and more about "super tools". Not so much humans and machines working together to build things, like cars or highways. More like one person orchestrating an array of automation to solve a specific problem.

A tool is so much more versatile than a die press stamping out the same object over and over. Tools imply flexibility and adaptability to different circumstances.

I think automation will happen from the bottom up. Some plumbers use cameras and nitrogen gas to detect leaks. Soon, they'll use robots to detect and repair leaks. They'll get better and faster, requiring less and less oversight. The natural consequence of that, the guy with the good tools can fix more stuff in a day.

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#28
post #26
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Will the majority of humanity be enslaved to rent-seekers who own patents on a robot hinge?" Actually, that's easy: No. Humanity will not be enslaved to a small number of capital owners. But the reason isn't necessarily a happy one, which is that humanity will revolt and start destroying and probably kill lots of people and even potentially kill the goose laying the golden egg by destroying the robotic infrastructur…

I don't think revolt is an inevitable outcome for a number of reasons. I actually think it's very unlikely. First, the warfare would be very asymmetric, with much of the war fighting capability automated through the very robotics that empower the capital class economically. Go ahead and ask the Taliban / ISIS what happens when you try to fight a modern military force in 2015 with weapons from 1970. If you don't have…

"I don't think revolt is an inevitable outcome for a number of reasons."

Sorry, I wasn't clear. My comment was a reply, and was taking the parent as a given. If a very small cabal of capital owners tries to enslave the whole of humanity, then it won't be stable because humanity will revolt. And it is unlikely to come to that, for the reasons you state.

Interestingly, "large swathes of humanity enslaved" is actually a thing that has happened in the past, but in the past, the slaves were what we'd consider radically poor, and the enslaving states were not high-skill affairs.

I also disagree that merely keeping people happy-ish will suffice. We do have, as someone else says, "bread and circuses" today, but there's still a lot of people bitching about "income inequality", pushing for ever more wealth transfers to them, and hinting at if not outright threatening violence any time there's any suggestion that those will be taken away. I see no evidence there's a level of wealth that satisfies people in the longterm, and the capital owners can never be wealthy enough to satisfy humanity in the long term. You'd have to re-engineer humanity to have some concept of "enough" built into them. Eventually the capital owners will be forced to reckon with something.

If nothing else, eventually the remaining people who are still doing some sort of work are simply going to go on strike. Humans are rarely happy with the amount of wealth they have, and historically speaking, it seems giving them more makes that problem worse, not better.

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#29
I'm happy to see frank and intelligent conversation about rent. There seems to be a general understanding that the wages earned and the capital inherited by the very tip of our society does not speak to high levels of merit but instead to some form of malfeasance or at least market failure.

But when pressed to pronounce what mechanism explains these impressions, theories depart - sometimes violently. There are hundreds of thousands of wealthy families in this upper crust and hundreds of millions of people churning in the domestic system that in part begets it. What's more, the finances of the US are owed to far more than domestic productivity - for example its role in the IMF and World Bank as well as its being the defacto fiat currency make international activity, macro- and eventually micro-, spanning between a billion or two people crucial to understanding its economy.

Any explanation of the impression that the class society forming in America is not due to actually earned wealth must be sufficiently complicated to capture around _2 billion_ people and close to a half of the globe! This is a tall order to demand of a blog post.

In any case, let us examine some of the questions the author asks - in particular about finance.

> Why does finance make so much money? Can it really cost that much to do what financial intermediaries do?

There's a number of reasons. Moral hazard, quite plainly. Regulatory capture (http://www.propublica.org/series/fed-tapes) too. These are domestic explanations and do go to some length to explain how these powerful enterprises are able to meet with law enforcement and regulatory bodies. Others say that HFT, legal barriers to trading, and delayed entry into IPO concentrate the gains of Wall Street into small hands. On the macro side Piketty offers a simple and compelling mathematical model (plus data to back it) that suggests that large wealth all on its own balloons exponentially over smaller wealth because both grow as an exponential over time but large starting wealth increasingly will win out in terms of total proportion - this would be exacerbated by the savings rate available to those 'in the know' of the finance industry (whose full time job it is to grow wealth through investment and speculation as fast as possible).

But in a country where it's difficult to find investments that grow fast enough to beat inflation, where do the mammoth amounts of growth that sustain and feed the highest levels of American finance come from? Outside the country, unfortunately. Take Soros who seems to have wizard like capabilities to predict the future given his alien levels of success 'speculating' on currency exchanges and international companies. Soros does not speculate on markets - at least not in the traditional sense. Nor do the top brass. Soros actively partners with the US government to install organizations in countries around the world encouraging their 'transition' to foreign investment - usually through revolution and regime change.

He, others who do the same, and those others in the sphere of 'civil society', are able to invest early in existing and new international companies as American companies consume the revenues and bring the customer base of newly freed local resources to the international community. The US government is happy to partner here because it can engineer regime change in its and its allies favor but launder the activity through private citizens and companies - this allows it to continue to wave the banner of self-determination, of individual rights and of international law.

Do these things count as rent seeking? Probably. Actually, almost certainly. But its important to understand how complicated - and more importantly opaque - the system that benefits the few is. I hope the conversation continues to make it mainstream - maybe some day we will be able to have a mass informed debate.

Re: The Rent Hypothesis

#30
post #23

At the beginning of civilization, the research budget for the invention of fire was zero, while the benefits of fire were incalculable. Compare this to the development costs of the next generation of Boeing aircraft relative to the small improvements in air travel. This dynamic has enormous implications for the presumed benefits of increases in government spending beyond some low base. Over time and with increasing c…

A graph of world economic growth since the invention of fire shows anything but diminishing returns however. If rent-seeking behaviour is increasing, it's because the pie is - at least on a global level - growing at an accelerating rate.

Elites always have and always will seek to take disproportionate shares of that wealth because they can, and because regimes, legal norms and competition encourage them to do so rather than because creating wealth doesn't pay. Much of postmodern finance is undoubtedly rent seeking, but so were the fights over ownership of natural resources and sovereign-granted monopolies of earlier generations, and the local nobility and religious bodies taking the surplus agricultural produce before that.

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