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California has about one year of water left

latimes.com

271–280 of 405 posts

Re: California has about one year of water left

#271
post #238
post #72

Disclaimer: I have no clue if what I'm proposing is realistic or not, but: Perhaps the federal government should step in and gradually step down the level of subsidies given to farmers in California and gradually increase subsidies given to NEW farmers in other, more water rich parts of the country. This would have the effect of moving farms to more sustainable locations in the country. Sure, the types of crops produ…

What would happen if the gov't did nothing? 1. Water would become more scarce in California. Not everyone would get what they need. 2. Price of produce would go up, since there is a smaller supply. 3. We'd start to import more produce (either from outside the country or other states) because the price is the same or lower than the new, higher CA price. 4. Other farmers, who don't grow what CA grows, would start to be…

I'm puzzled at the down votes you're receiving. I think you have a valid point and I generally have a similar perspective, but, in this case, it overlooks a significant externality: the destruction of the environment as rivers are pumped dry and (albeit, artificial) reservoirs run dry. Further, your solution could make the additional extraction of water quite profitable, which would further the destruction.

The straightforward solution is to internalize the externality via a progressive tax on water usage. Then, as you said, the free market can regulate itself.

Note: I'm not a fan of taxation, but it can be a good solution to managing externalities.

Re: California has about one year of water left

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people consume only a fraction of the water and it's dishonest in the extreme to say that things would be "fine" without them. Each ton of alfalfa in California consumes more water than a family uses in a year and yet sells for $200. There were 13 million tons sold last year. If we got rid of the low-value forage crops, the people (who would pay a hell of a lot more than $200 a year) would have more than enough w…

So, as an intellectual exercise, if the Los Angeles and San Francisco metroplexes simply vanished, would there be enough water?

I don't know. Let's see.

LATimes has an article from last year on high and low residential per capita water usage (http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-1105-californi...). Using that, let's estimate a .5kgal/person/day usage for San Diego and Orange counties, and a .05kgal/person/day usage for the San Francisco region. (The difference in those numbers was surprising.)

The most recent census numbers estimated the Orange County population to be ~3.1 million people, Los Angeles county to be ~10 million people, and San Diego county to be ~3.2 million. San Francisco county is about .8 million. Let's add in Contra Costa, San Mateo, Marin, Alameda, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties at roughly the same per capita usage, with populations of ~1.1 million, ~.8 million, ~.3 million, ~1.6 million, ~.8 million, and ~1.9 million people respectively. At this point, we've accounted for ~23.6 million of California's ~38.3 million residents.

Crunching the numbers, this works out to ~8.2Mgal/day for the southern California region's residential water usage, and ~.4Mgal/day for the Bay Area region's residential water usage. (Check my math, but I don't think I screwed it up.)

According to an article from Slate (http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/0...), almond farming alone in California uses roughly 3Ggal (that's three giga-gallons, or three billion gallons) of water per day.

Or, to put it yet another way, if we decided instead that about 23.6 million people were worth some almond farms, we could balance their entire water usage by reducing California's almond farms by less than 1 percent.

So, no, there would not be enough water if those metroplexes simply vanished.

Re: California has about one year of water left

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe recent scientific studies have said the California drought is not caused by climate change. http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/12/new-study-cal...

I believe the most recent theory is that the drought cycle is normal but the severity of the drought is influenced by climate change.

"influenced" is such a weasel word. Everything influences everything a little bit.

Re: California has about one year of water left

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that California is so ideal for agriculture because of its climate (with the water scarcity being the big liability, the can we've been kicking down the road for decades). Other states, either individually or collectively, do not have the year-round, Mediterranean, relatively predictable climate to take on the load that California would drop. This includes not only total square acreage of arable,…

There are other places in the world where these crops can be grown. People in those countries will be more than happy to trade us almonds, rice, bananas and the like in exchange for things we are great at producing like software and music. It's a win-win.

I like to remind you that we, as mere lowly humans, require food grown on a farm to survive a lot more so than we need software or music. If we collapse our agricultural backbone and just willy-nilly decide to depend upon a foreign nation for food, then be prepared to fight a lot more "oil wars" (except for human fuel and not just car fuel).

Furthermore, we'd be putting our trust into the governments and politicians of foreign nations. And, quite honestly, despite all the shit we see about our politicians being corrupt, cheating on their wives, embezzling thousands of dollars a year, letting the rich get away with billions in tax loopholes, being stupid in congress, being radical not-born-in-murica communists, etc., at least keep in mind we at least see them in all their human imperfections (and sometimes less-than-human vices), whereas we have absolutely no idea what the hell goes on behind the closed doors and smokescreens at a foreign government. Politics and power is inherently a very difficult game of balancing flexible compromises and hardline stoicism, not a place for cults of personalities and naive idealism.

As for me, I'd much rather trust the politician who is getting publicly crucified for having told a racist joke 10 years ago, flirted a little too much with some girl not his wife, is a closest homosexual, tweeted something dumb like "#killasians lolwat", or committed some other sensationalist-media-breaking-news-but-realistically-inconsequential-to-his-character "sin" than the perfect politician who has never commit any sin and who no one dares to speak ill against (e.g. today's chairman Xi).

Re: California has about one year of water left

#276
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other places in the world where these crops can be grown. People in those countries will be more than happy to trade us almonds, rice, bananas and the like in exchange for things we are great at producing like software and music. It's a win-win.

We don't want to have to rely on other nations for our food supply.

There seems to be a significant distinction between staples and "food supply" and the high-value specialty fruits/vegetables grown in the central valley.

The US will never need to rely on other nations for their corn, rice, wheat, apples, barley, etc. But if the choice is between destroying our own land and infrastructure or relying on other countries for our kiwis, artichokes, avocados and almonds, then I might actually be okay with eating Mexican avocados (and I think the Mexican farmers might appreciate that too).

Re: California has about one year of water left

#277

I blame golf. Really. I learned to play on an OIL course. They mixed oil and sand to create a fairway and we carried around a piece of astroturf to place under the ball (see http://www.panoramio.com/photo/22230833 ). A grass course in a desert (ie most every course in california) is a totally unnecessary waste of water. When they stop spending water on golf, THEN we can talk about rationing water for household use. (…

Golf courses account for probably not more than 0.5% of all human water usage in California annually. Human water usage in CA is about 80% agricultural, 20% "urban". "Urban" covers all residential, (non-agricultural) commericial, landscaping, etc. Of the "Urban" usage, about 60% is residential, with indoor usage as the majority. Residential landscaping (lawns, pools, etc) uses at least 3 times as much as all commerci…

Please excuse my ignorance in that area, but what is happening to water after it had been "used" for landscaping? Does it disappear from local ecosystem, like water that went into sewer, or does it stay locally and come back as fog/rain/dew/etc?

Re: California has about one year of water left

#278
post #51
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The whole state of California has always been on water welfare You're right, it has always been stupid to farm in California. Now it's coming back to bit people in the ass.

No, that's not the correct conclusion. It used to be cheap enough to send water there that once you did that the sunny climate made it ideal for a lot of crops. It just so happens that climate change and population explosion has made it uneconomical now . Here's a pro tip, if you think complex issues like water distribution for an entire state have easy, trite answers you're missing something.

"once you did that the sunny climate made it ideal for a lot of crops."

By this the Sahara or Arabian peninsula are some of the best farmland on the planet. I mean, all you have to do is bring in the key ingredient of life.

This is not a new problem for California. It's been ignored for so long because it used to be cheap. It was always stupid to farm in a desert, it doesn't matter how cheap it used to be to bring water in.

It turns out, large parts of California are arid for a reason, and the reason isn't recent climate change. But we as a species can't think past right now. California was populated when we didn't think we were ruled by nature anymore and our new found genius would meld nature to bend to our will. It's biting us in the ass now.

Re: California has about one year of water left

#279
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only on HackerNews are people silly enough to think you have the scalability of virtual infrastructure in the physical world. Farms measure lead times in years . EDIT: I help my uncle manage a farm in Florida. The startup times are seriously ridiculous.

And is this drought not also taking years ? It think it's reasonable to expect the farm markets to capitalistically take advantage of California's decline, even if it does take years.

The drought is going to start pinching farms in one year. This thread is about whether the California government should start rationing water now.
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